This is a great day to have access to Stokastic’s MLB DFS projections. All days are great for that, but with an unclear pitching slate of eight games and some interesting leverage spots, the Top Stacks and Top Pitchers Tools are going to really come in handy when looking for MLB DFS value plays. Today’s slate is dominated by a couple of AL East stacks, though one superstar rookie continues to make his name as a top one-off in an unexciting offense. Let’s break down the MLB DFS value picks for Monday.
MLB DFS Value and Advice | June 12
Colorado Rockies (Connor Seabold) at Boston Red Sox (James Paxton)
The Red Sox are at the top of the Top Stacks Tool thanks to a slate-leading 5.9 implied run total. Seabold has been decent at limiting power, allowing a .159 xISO to lefties and a .180 xISO to righties, but he has been a below-average pitcher overall, with a 5.89 xFIP and 15.2% strikeout percentage. Paxton is the top pitcher on tonight’s slate as he takes on a Rockies squad that has an 88 wRC+ and 23.4% strikeout percentage against left-handed pitching since the start of last season. Paxton’s 33% strikeout percentage is the highest on the slate, and he has posted a 3.43 xFIP as well.
San Francisco Giants (Logan Webb) at St. Louis Cardinals (Matthew Liberatore)
Webb is relatively expensive at $10,300 on DraftKings, but he is off to a strong start this season. His strikeout percentage currently sits at 25.4%, and he has a 3.00 xFIP. The matchup with the Cardinals is not ideal, as they have a 110 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season and have struck out just 20.5% of the time, but it is only a seven-game slate, so Webb is a viable option despite the matchup. San Francisco ranks in the middle of the pack in Top Stack percentage against Liberatore, who has only struck out 15.4% of hitters and has a 5.03 xFIP this season. The Giants active roster has a 109 wRC+ against left-handed pitching since the start of last year, but keep in mind there will likely be some pinch-hit risk, as they tend to start a righty-heavy lineup against left-handed pitching and then pinch-hit once the bullpen enters the game.
Los Angeles Angels (Tyler Anderson) at Texas Rangers (Dane Dunning)
This is one of the more appealing games for offenses on tonight’s slate. Dunning has allowed a .227 xISO to right-handed hitters this season, while Anderson has allowed a .171 xISO to righties. Both pitchers have been much better at limiting left-handed power, but that does not mean overlook Shohei Ohtani, Nathaniel Lowe or Corey Seager in stacks. Ideally, the stacked lineup knocks the starter out of the game early and gets the platoon advantage against relievers. Texas currently sits at fourth in Top Stack percentage, while the Angels are sixth.
Cincinnati Reds (Luke Weaver) at Kansas City Royals (Zack Greinke)
Weaver looks like the most appealing pay-down SP2 option, at $7,500 on DraftKings. He has struck out 22.3% of hitters this season and has a 4.23 xFIP. Kansas City has been the second-worst offense against right-handed pitching this season and has an 80 wRC+ and 25.7% strikeout percentage. Greinke has been better than expected this year, posting a respectable 4.00 xFIP. He has still only struck out 18.3% of hitters, however, so he is relatively difficult to get to in DFS at $7,000. Neither offense looks great, but Elly De La Cruz continues to stand out as a great individual play.
Tampa Bay Rays (Zach Eflin) at Oakland Athletics (James Kaprielian)
Eflin is expensive at $11,000, but he has an excellent matchup against Oakland in a pitcher-friendly park. Eflin’s 24.7% chance of being a top-2 scoring pitcher is third best in the Top Pitchers Tool. He has the third-best strikeout percentage on the slate at 25.7% as well. Kaprielian, on the other hand, is one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball, as he enters tonight’s game with a 6.15 xFIP. Left-handed hitters have posted a .256 xISO and .399 xwOBA against him while only striking out 14.4% of the time. Tampa Bay is second to Boston in Top Stack percentage, and Wander Franco, Josh Lowe and Luke Raley stand out individually.
Philadelphia Phillies (Matt Strahm/Dylan Covey) at Arizona Diamondbacks (Tommy Henry)
This is another good game to target offenses, as the Phillies are third in Top Stack percentage and the Diamondbacks are fifth. Covey has not pitched in the majors much since 2019, but he has allowed a .196 xISO to righties and a .242 xISO to lefties over that period. In a limited sample this season, lefties have a .265 xISO and .378 xwOBA while righties have a .162 xISO and .308 xwOBA. Henry has not been much better, allowing a .189 xISO to righties and a .150 xISO to lefties.
Miami Marlins (Jesus Luzardo) at Seattle Mariners (Bryce Miller)
This game is the opposite of the Arizona game, as both pitchers look like strong plays. Luzardo is second in top-2-pitcher percentage and is projected for 36.4% ownership on DraftKings, while Miller is fifth in top-2-pitcher percentage and only projects for 8.2% ownership. Luzardo is the better option of the two, but Miller is going under-owned and looks like a good pivot in GPP lineups that are using popular bats. Luzardo has struck out 28.2% of hitters and has a 3.64 xFIP this season, while Miller has struck out 21.7% of hitters and has a 4.29 xFIP. Miami has a 91 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, and Seattle has a 116 wRC+ against lefties since the start of last year. T-Mobile Park has the lowest park factor in baseball over the last three seasons, which bodes well for both of the pitchers.
