Monday brings a potential elimination game if the Heat are not able to work their mojo in Denver for a second time this series, the Nuggets will be crowned NBA Champions. The action tips off at 8:30 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel, and there are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups. Will Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray lead the Nuggets to their first NBA Championship or will Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo pull off one more miracle? Let’s dig into the NBA DFS core plays.
NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Monday, June 12
Core Play of the Day — Nikola Jokic — Denver Nuggets
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 64.33 | FanDuel: 60.61
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings 74.6% | FanDuel: 69.1%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $16,000 | FanDuel: $19,000
On Friday the Nuggets won their second game in Miami and they are sitting on a 3-1 lead and looking to close out the Heat in Denver. While a lot has been covered about the amazing offensive games of Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, it is important to remember that the Nuggets have held the Heat to 95 or fewer points three times, which are also the three lowest Miami totals for this postseason run.
Jokic landed awkwardly on the Max Strus’ foot in the first quarter and twisted his ankle. Jokic went to the lockerroom at the end of the first quarter and had his ankle re-taped, before rejoining the action with 7:49 remaining in the half. Then after picking up his fifth foul, just 2:36 into the fourth quarter, the two time NBA MVP hit the bench for five minutes. It looked like the Heat were going to work their magic again as that was in the midst of an 8-0 to start the final frame. Instead, the Nuggets held their own and maintained the lead.
Even with the injury and foul trouble, Jokic still nearly posted a 60-fantasy points game with 23 points, 12 rebounds, four assists and six combined blocks and steals. FanDuel once again raised the single-game player cap, this time to $19,000 and DraftKings has him at an all-time high of $16,000 – but that should not dissuade the savvy gamer from making Jokic a core building block tonight.
Murray ended up with a $400 increase on DraftKings and a $500 decrease on FanDuel. He was right around 40 fantasy points, but could have had a much better game when we consider his 5 for 17 (29.4%) from the field was by far the worst game he has had during the playoffs. Still, he notched his fourth consecutive double-double and should be able to find his mark back in his home gym.
Michael Porter Jr. has now played 26, 21 and 23 minutes and while he was active in the offense with 10 field goal attempts on Friday, once he checked out midway through the third quarter, much like Game 3, that was the end of his night. Christian Braun actually played seven minutes after Porter Jr. hit the pine including the first 3:17 of the fourth quarter. Even so, the 15 total minutes were a three game low for the rookie and he only attempted one shot after getting eight in Game 3. Porter Jr. is now at a postseason low on both DraftKings ($6,200) and FanDuel ($9,000). Braun is up to $2,800 on DraftKings, which would be great if we knew he was going to get half a dozen field goal attempts. On FanDuel he is a desperation punt at best with a $7,000 cap hit.
Aaron Gordon has been the key for Denver the last two games as he is able to body up any defenders who switch on him outside of Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler, who have their hands full elsewhere. Gordon was 11 of 15 from the field, including 3 of 4 from downtown. His 27 points were a postseason high and the third time during these playoffs that he has scored 20-plus points. Considering his salary barely moved upward on the main DFS sites, we should go right back to him in what seems to be a riddle that the Heat just are not able to answer. Another trip to the 40 fantasy point plateau is likely folly, but something in the low-30s is very much in play.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope looked good to fantasy gamers, but that was due in large part to five combined blocks and steals. in the first three games of this series he had three total “stocks” so projecting him for 15-20 fantasy points is still the median outcome. Bruce Brown Jr. also came up big with his best fantasy performance on FanDuel for these playoffs and his 34.5 on DraftKings was less than a fantasy point shy of a personal best as well. In his case it was a trio of troikas that powered him along with an overall 8 of 11 night from the field. FanDuel ($10,500) gave him a 16% salary increase, while the DraftKings algorithm was clearly not impressed and the Monopoly Man gave him $200 as he passed Go, for a very palatable $5,200 salary.
Jeff Green can be skipped on FanDuel for anyone building less than 25 lineups. On DraftKings he saw his salary drop $200, so at $1,600 tonight he should at least be on the court for 15 minutes. In the four games this series, he has seven total field goal attempts, but a little gust from the gods could get him over the double-digit fantasy point hurdle.
Bam Adebayo — Miami Heat
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 42.39 | FanDuel: 41.91
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings 50.7% | FanDuel: 43.7%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $9,800 | FanDuel: $13,500
Tyler Herro has not been cleared to return to action after suffering a fractured right hand in Game 1 against Milwaukee. It looks like his postseason is done, unless Miami can extend the series. UPDATE: Tyler Herro now listed as questionable, expected to “give it a go” – his return directly takes minutes and likely field goal attempts away from Strus, Robinson and potentially Martin.
Butler and Adebayo have been doing everything they can, but it just has not been enough, particularly with the improved Denver defense. If the game is close, Butler will likely see 45 minutes with his wingman not too far behind. The salary savings with Adebayo does give more roster flexibility, so he is the core play for the Heat on DraftKings. On FanDuel it is a little closer and Butler gets the nod there as he has the better fantasy point per dollar median baseline and the chance for steals and blocks gives him attainable upside to potentially flirt with 50 fantasy points. Keep in mind however, Game 4 was the first time this series that saw him clear 40 fantasy points.
Gabe Vincent and Max Strus once again struggled from the field going a combined 1 for 10, while missing all seven from downtown. Each played just 19 minutes, with neither setting foot on the court for the final 20 minutes. This is a kitchen sink game where coach Erik Spoelstra will be trying anything, so expect anyone outside of Butler and Adebayo to have very little margin of error before getting replaced by the next man up. This duo does have the advantage of starting – but they have both played so poorly this series it would not be a surprise if one or both of them are replaced to “provide a spark” by Kyle Lowry, Caleb Martin or in the case of Strus, even Duncan Robinson.Â
Lowry has been remarkably consistent with his fantasy production this series with three of the four games being mid-20s efforts. The 37-year-old veteran would need everything to break his way to reach 30 fantasy points, so that is probably off the table, but a fourth game in the mid-to-upper 20s is a viable outcome. As for the other two, Martin is better on DraftKings ($5,800), while Robinson gets the edge on FanDuel ($7.500).
Kevin Love played around seven minutes in the first quarter and around the same to start the second half, just like his Game 3 rotations. That feels mostly safe, so as long as he is starting, he should see 14-15 minutes with an outside chance of 20 fantasy points and a floor around a dozen.
Cody Zeller played the last two minutes of the first quarter and the first three of the second for his only rotation. In each of the last three games that Love has started, both he and Adebayo have exited as a pair during the first quarter, with Zeller checking in – so it makes sense that he should see something in the four to six minute range, with his only upside being if something happens to Love or Adebayo in the first three quarters, or if there is mop-up duty in the final quarter.
Haywood Highsmith has seen only nine combined minutes in the last three games, after getting 23 in the opener. It is unlikely he sees the court outside of a lopsided game or a slim chance that he is a wild card option in this elimination matchup.
Additional NBA DFS Building Blocks Pick — Sports Betting Opportunities
For the second game, the 17.5 points + rebounds + assists (PRA) prop. remains the same for Porter Jr. The main difference is that it has moved from -110 to -125 for the under and the over is also -125, though with a 16.5 PRA.
NBA Bet Pro currently has Porter projected for 27.7 minutes, 10.87 points, 5.20 rebounds and 0.94 assists for 17.01 PRA. We can see that indicates that both the over and under are efficient at -125 on BetMGM. Looking at the new “True Odds” feature as shown on OddsShopper the -109 over 16.5 PRA is a slightly better than the -115 under 17.5 PRA.
Though we can now see this is no longer a “profitable” long term wager with both sides having a -1.5% expected ROI. In plainer terms, this is almost like wagering on the coinflip at the Super Bowl. For me, I still prefer the under as it makes sense that Porter Jr. may be relegated to a third straight outing where he does not play during the final quarter.
The risk for those taking the under is that Porter is able to find his bearings on his home court and regains his touch from long-range. Another path to success would be if the game is a Denver romp and Porter does not ride the pine while watching the better defensive players close out the game.
In the last three games we have seen Porter Jr. with 11, seven and 14 PRA. On Friday, sweating out him 1) not getting another triple and 2) not coming back in the game for offense when Jokic had foul trouble was key. This is a razor thin margin – though if for bettors who have a strong conviction on one side or the other, this is still a reasonable wager.
The wager with the best value on the board right now is Strus over 1.5 assists at +130 with a 46% expected win rate, which even though it is not occurring the majority of the time, still has a 6% expected ROI at +130 odds. In the four games between these teams in the Finals, Strus had assist totals of 3, 6, 5 and then zero on Friday when he played only 19 minutes. Strus is unlikely to play in the fourth quarter, but if he is not replaced in the starting lineup as mentioned above, he should be able to collect a pair of helpers in 25-26 minutes of action. BetPro has him for 27.6 minutes and 1.49 assists. UPDATE: This “over” bet is not as intriguing for Strus, now that Herro is reportedly returning to action.Â
Keep in mind that, with this being the fifth matchup between these two teams in the last 12 days, finding major value is unlikely, so consider using bonus bets and boosters to aid in the quest to remain profitable.
Did you know that you can get one free month of Stokastic+ Platinum for signing up and making your first bet at BetMGM? Claim here today!
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
When you start to build your DFS lineups, be sure to let us do the heavy lifting for you by tuning into the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show 7:30 p.m. ET on YouTube, brought to you by Prize Picks – new users, use this link receive 30 days of Stokastic+ Platinum and a first deposit match up to $100.
