The huge evening slate makes it another great day to have access to Stokastic’s MLB DFS projections. The Top Stacks and Top Pitchers Tools are going to really come in handy when looking for MLB DFS value plays with a split slate this large. One great spot is an AL East matchup that features some two vulnerable pitchers against high-end offenses, so let’s break down the MLB DFS value picks for Wednesday.
MLB DFS Value and Advice | June 14
Toronto Blue Jays (Jose Berrios) at Baltimore Orioles (Kyle Bradish)
This matchup is similar to yesterday’s. Bradish is a solid pitcher in a tough matchup against Toronto, while Berrios is a solid pitcher that has had issues with left-handed hitters this season and will face a lineup full of them in a great park for left-handed power. The Blue Jays project a bit better than the Orioles since Bradish has less of a track record of being a good pitcher than Berrios, but the matchup seems better for Baltimore. Berrios has allowed a .354 xwOBA and .195 xISO to left-handed hitters this season. Gunnar Henderson once again stands out as the top play from the game at $3,700 on DraftKings, with third base and shortstop eligibility.
Colorado Rockies (Austin Gomber) at Boston Red Sox (Garrett Whitlock)
Boston is one of the top stacks on the slate, as Gomber has struggled both inside and outside of Coors Field this season. The Red Sox are first in Stack Score in the Top Stacks Tool, and they are also first in top stack percentage. Adam Duvall stands out as the top hitter from Boston. Whitlock has a favorable matchup at just $6,800 and is a strong MLB DFS value option for paying down at SP2. He has struck out 19.7% of hitters this season and has a 4.09 xFIP, while the Rockies active roster has a 91 wRC+ and 24.3% strikeout percentage (including games in Coors).
New York Yankees (Gerrit Cole) at New York Mets (Justin Verlander)
Cole has struck out 25.8% of hitters this season and has a 3.98 xFIP. Those are not the numbers Cole usually posts, but he has still been productive. He has a tough matchup tonight, however, as the Mets enter the game with a 100 wRC+ and only a 20.4% strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching. Cole is only projected for 6% ownership, which makes him somewhat intriguing, but it is going to be difficult to get to him over the other top-end arms on the slate. Verlander has struggled, with only a 19.9% strikeout percentage and 4.58 xFIP, but it is likely he will pitch better going forward based on what he has done in recent seasons and on the fact he had some difficult matchups out of the gate. He is only $8,000 on DraftKings tonight and is projected to be the best option below $9,000 on DraftKings.
Pittsburgh Pirates (Osvaldo Bido) at Chicago Cubs (Drew Smyly)
The Cubs look interesting, as they have a 4.86 implied run total against Bido in his major league debut. He does seem to have made some improvements over the last couple of seasons in the minors that may have projection systems underestimating him, but he still is likely to be a below-average pitcher for the Pirates. Chicago is seventh in Stack Score, and they are projected for modest 5% ownership. Nothing else really stands out from this game.
Los Angeles Angels (Reid Detmers) at Texas Rangers (Andrew Heaney)
This is an interesting game, as these are two above-average strikeout pitchers in tough matchups at low ownership. Detmers is only $7,000 on DraftKings and has a 27.2% strikeout rate and 3.88 xFIP. There are two issues for Detmers, however. First, he has only pitched six or more innings once this season. Second, he is facing the Rangers, who are one of the best offenses in baseball. He is only projected for about 7% ownership, so he is a high-upside contrarian option, but it is difficult to prioritize him.
Similarly, Heaney has struck out 24.4% of hitters this season, but he has also struggled with home runs, and he is facing a lineup full of power hitters. Right-handed hitters in particular — of which there will probably be eight in the Angels lineup — have a .192 xISO against Heaney this season. He is a viable pivot to a much more popular Verlander at a similar price point, but it is a tough spot. Both offenses are appealing despite the relatively difficult matchups, as they offer plenty of upside. The Angels are fifth in Stack Score, while the Rangers rank 16th. Texas is seventh in top stack percentage, however, and their Stack Score is being driven down by their expensive salaries.
Washington Nationals (Josiah Gray) at Houston Astros (Framber Valdez)
Valdez is one of the best pitchers in baseball, entering tonight’s game with a 2.86 xFIP and 26.5% strikeout percentage. The Nationals are a tough team to strike out, but they are also one of the least productive offenses in baseball. Gray has made some adjustments this season that have led to fewer power issues but also a decrease in strikeouts. The Astros are a middle-of-the-road stack, as they are still without Yordan Alvarez for the foreseeable future and Gray has held righties to a .162 xISO and lefties to a .145 xISO this season.
Cincinnati Reds (Ben Lively) at Kansas City Royals (Daniel Lynch)
This game has the makings of another high-scoring game, as it once again has a 9.5 implied run total. Lively is still a bit of an unknown, as he has gotten off to a strong start for the Reds but is unlikely to continue at this pace. He has struck out just north of 27% of hitters and has an xFIP shy of 4.00, so it is fine to roll the dice at low ownership and a cheap price tag and hope he can keep it up for one more game. That said, projection models and Vegas lines certainly do not believe in him.
Lynch on the other side has allowed a .338 xwOBA to righties and .377 xwOBA to lefties since the start of last season. Cincinnati is third in top stack percentage and second in Stack Score, while the Royals are ninth in top stack percentage but fourth in Stack Score thanks to the second-highest MLB DFS value percentage on the slate.
Miami Marlins (Eury Perez) at Seattle Mariners (Luis Castillo)
Perez is one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, but he has yet to go more than five innings in a start, so it is difficult to pay for him in DFS. Castillo, on the other hand, is one of the best options on the slate, as he has a 30% strikeout percentage and 3.25 xFIP this season. Miami’s active roster is tied for the fourth-lowest wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season. Its aggregate strikeout percentage is just 20.8%, but that is a bit misleading since Luis Arraez has only struck out about 5% of the time this season. There are strikeouts to be had later on in the lineup.
Philadelphia Phillies (Ranger Suarez) at Arizona Diamondbacks (Merrill Kelly)
This game has two average-to-good pitchers taking on two above-average offenses. As a result, nothing stands out as a priority. Kelly is an interesting contrarian option in tournaments as he is only pulling 6.7% ownership and a 13% chance of being a top-2 scoring pitcher in the Top Pitchers Tool. His strikeout percentage has climbed from 22% last season to 26.8% this season, and he has a 3.69 xFIP as well. Suarez has struck out 21.1% of hitters and has a 3.57 xFIP through his first six starts this season after posting a 19.5% strikeout rate and a 3.82 xFIP last season. He is more talented than a $5,600 salary, but it also is not necessary to roster him very often on this slate.
Cleveland Guardians (Aaron Civale) at San Diego Padres (Michael Wacha)
This looks like one of the most unappealing games on the slate, as these are two decent pitchers in a great pitcher’s park. Neither pitcher is underpriced, however, so they mostly look like contrarian tournament plays, with Wacha being the preferred option of the two. He is projected for 3% ownership and a 9% chance of being a top-2 scoring pitcher.
Tampa Bay Rays (Tyler Glasnow) at Oakland Athletics (Luis Medina)
Glasnow is arguably the best pitching play on the slate at $9,400 on DraftKings. Oakland’s active roster has a 94 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season, and it has an average strikeout rate of 25%. Glasnow has elite stuff when he is healthy, and he appears to be healthy for the time being. He has struck out 31.3% of hitters through his first three starts this season after posting strikeout percentages of 36.2 and 38.2% in relatively healthy 2021 and 2020 seasons.
Medina is possibly the worst pitcher on the slate tonight, and he has to face one of the best offenses in baseball. The only things working against the Rays are the extreme pitcher’s park and expensive salaries. They have a 5.4 implied run total despite the park, however, and rank third in Stack Score despite the hefty price tags.
Chicago White Sox (Mike Clevinger) at Los Angeles Dodgers (Clayton Kershaw)
Kershaw leads the Top Pitchers Tool with a 21% chance of being a top-2 scoring pitcher. He has struck out 30.3% of hitters this season and has a 2.97 xFIP that is better than every pitcher on the slate other than Valdez. Clevinger has struggled with left-handed hitters in 2023, allowing a .227 xISO and .348 xwOBA. Freddie Freeman stands out as a top first base option, and cheaper left-handed bats like Jason Heyward, David Peralta and James Outman offer MLB DFS value as well.
