Today’s evening slate is back to the massive Friday set, and the abundance of options makes true MLB DFS value difficult to discern. Luckily, Stokastic’s MLB DFS projections are here to help. Using the projections alongside the Top Stacks and Top Pitchers Tools, we can find a few leverage spots that the field may be undervaluing like the Dodgers in a leverage spot against a struggling pitcher.
MLB DFS Value and Advice | June 9
New York Mets (Tylor Megill) at Pittsburgh Pirates (Rich Hill)
The bats are the most interesting part of this game. Hill has allowed a .232 xISO and .373 xwOBA to right-handed hitters this season. The Mets will, unfortunately, be without Peter Alonso but they still have plenty of dangerous bats. Francisco Alvarez stands out as one of the best catching options, especially if he continues to bat second in the order. Megill has not been great this season either, allowing a .172 xISO and .361 xwOBA to lefties and a .193 xISO and .377 xwOBA to righties. Bryan Reynolds, Andrew McCutchen, Jack Suwinski and Ke’Bryan Hayes are all high-upside bats, and there is also likely to be MLB DFS value from an inexpensive Tucupita Marcano at the top of the order.
Kansas City Royals (Daniel Lynch) at Baltimore Orioles (Tyler Wells)
Keep an eye on this game because Baltimore continues to be smoky. Assuming the game goes, there is plenty to like from the Orioles. They have a 4.9 implied run total against Lynch. They are in the middle of the pack in Stack Score but are projected to be slightly under-owned, with a 3.6% chance of being the Top Stack and only 3% aggregate ownership. One thing working against them is that the game is in Baltimore and Lynch is left-handed. The typical move is to target right-handed power bats against him, but Camden Yards kills right-handed power. There is still a high ceiling, however. Wells is a strong mid-range pitching option at $8,300. He is fourth in top-2-pitcher percentage in the Top Pitchers Tool, and he is expected to be the second-highest-owned pitcher on the slate. Wells has struck out 27.5% of hitters this season while walking only 5.7% and posting a 3.97 xFIP. Kansas City’s active roster has a 23.9% strikeout percentage and 89 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season.
Los Angeles Dodgers (Michael Grove) at Philadelphia Phillies (Ranger Suarez)
Suarez is only $5,300 on DraftKings, which makes him a viable punt in that price range. That said, it is a 13-game slate, so there will be plenty of MLB DFS value bats to fill out lineups without having to roster Suarez against the Dodgers very often. Los Angeles has the fourth-highest chance of being the top scoring stack, while the Phillies are 11th. Both teams are projected to be under-owned in the Top Stack Tool, with the Dodgers looking particularly appealing at about 3% ownership and a 6% chance of being the Top Stack.
Boston Red Sox (Garrett Whitlock) at New York Yankees (Gerrit Cole)
Aaron Judge’s absence weakens the Yankees lineup, making them a middle-of-the-road stack against Whitlock. Left-handed power from the Yankees (Willie Calhoun, Anthony Rizzo and Jakob Bauers) make for strong plays, as Whitlock has allowed a .185 xISO to lefties and will have to contend with the short porch in right field. Cole is second in top-2-pitcher percentage at 15.4%. He is a distant second to Shohei Ohtani, but he is also getting about one-third of the ownership as a result. Cole has not been as dominant this season as in past seasons, only striking out 25.9% of hitters and posting a 3.97 xFIP. There is still plenty of upside in his arm, however.
Minnesota Twins (Sonny Gray) at Toronto Blue Jays (Yusei Kikuchi)
Gray is an excellent pitcher in a difficult matchup. He has struck out 25.4% of hitters and has a 3.51 xFIP this season, but Toronto’s active roster has a 116 wRC+ and just a 20.7% strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching. Kikuchi is pulling some ownership on the other side, thanks to a $7,100 salary. He has struck out 22.9% of hitters this season, but he has also allowed 2.49 home runs per nine innings and has a 4.39 xFIP and 5.96 FIP. Minnesota’s active roster only has a 20.6% strikeout percentage and a 114 wRC+ against left-handed pitching since the start of last season. Righties have a .262 xISO against Kikuchi this season, while lefties have a .245 xISO. He is a reasonable MLB DFS value for an SP2 because of his price tag, but getting to Twins bats makes a lot of sense as well. Minnesota is fourth in Stack Score, with a 3.7% chance of being the top scoring stack and a 10.5% chance of being the top value stack.
Houston Astros (Cristian Javier) at Cleveland Guardians (Logan Allen)
Javier has a favorable matchup for run prevention, as Cleveland’s active roster has an 86 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season. That number is second worst in baseball. The issues for Javier are that he is $10,800 and Cleveland has only struck out 19.3% of the time against right-handed pitching. Javier has also only struck out 19.3% of left-handed hitters this season compared to 33.8% of right-handed hitters. The Guardians’ projected lineup only has three right-handed hitters, and two of them are at the very bottom of the order, so they will get fewer plate appearances. Allen is having a solid rookie season, with a 3.78 xFIP and 23.9% strikeout percentage, but he has a very difficult matchup tonight. Still, he is sixth in top-2-pitcher percentage at 11%, with about 10% projected ownership. The Astros are decent contrarian stack in large-field GPPs, as they rank ninth in Stack Score and are only projected for 2.5% aggregate ownership.
Washington Nationals (Josiah Gray) at Atlanta Braves (A.J. Smith-Shawver)
Smith-Shawver is making his first major league start after pitching 2.1 innings in relief in his debut five days ago. He is a top-100 prospect without much upper-level experience. He made three starts at A+ to start this season then made two starts at Double-A and two starts at Triple-A before being promoted to the Braves. He projects to be a solid pitcher right out of the gate, however, as the projection systems on FanGraphs project a 22.7% to 25.1% strikeout percentage for the rest of the season. FIP projections range from 4.18 to 4.64. While there will probably be some hiccups early on in his career, and the Braves will probably have a relatively short leash on him today, it is somewhat surprising that he is only projected for 1.2% ownership in a favorable matchup with the Nationals. If Kikuchi is going to be 13% owned for $600 more, take Smith-Shawver at a discount in salary and ownership against the third-worst offense in baseball against right-handed pitching.
Gray has been better at limiting power this season than in previous seasons, but that has come with a reduction in strikeouts. The Braves are an extremely dangerous matchup, and they rank third in Stack Score and second in Top Stack percentage. While Smith-Shawver is an interesting SP2 option, do not totally sleep on the Nationals against an unproven pitcher. They rank sixth in Stack Score thanks to a 7.7% chance of being the top MLB DFS value stack.
Miami Marlins (Eury Perez) at Chicago White Sox (Dylan Cease)
Cease is an interesting contrarian arm in tournaments tonight, as he only is projected for about 8% ownership at a reasonable $9,200 price tag. He hasn’t been as sharp as he was last season, but he has still struck out 24.6% of hitters, so there is upside. Miami’s active roster has a 91 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season, but it has also only struck out 20.8% of the time. Luis Arraez is a big reason for the low strikeout percentage, however, so Cease is likely to strike hitters out at a higher clip than 20.8% once he gets past Arraez. Perez is one of the top pitching prospects in baseball and has plenty of strikeout upside. The issue is that he is $8,900 on DraftKings and Miami has yet to allow him to pitch more than five innings in a start.
Oakland Athletics (Luis Medina) at Milwaukee Brewers (Adrian Houser)
Houser is a viable contrarian SP2 option, as he is only projected for about 3% ownership at $6,000 against one of the worst offenses in baseball. Houser is a below average strikeout pitcher with a 14.1% strikeout percentage this season, but he is good at limiting power and preventing runs. He has a 4.16 xFIP and has only allowed .57 home runs per nine innings. Oakland bats get a favorable park shift and offer MLB DFS value to round out lineups that paid up for pitching and hitting. Milwaukee is one of the top stacks tonight, as Medina has struggled with power to both sides of the plate and is backed up by a terrible bullpen.
Cincinnati Reds (Ben Lively) at St. Louis Cardinals (Jordan Montgomery)
Montgomery has only struck out 20.8% of hitters this season, but he has a respectable 3.98 xFIP and is only $7,300 on DraftKings. He projects to be the most popular SP2 amongst starters below $8,000. Neither side of the game looks great offensively, but the Cardinals are somewhat interesting given that they are only pulling 2.7% ownership against a pitcher who is mostly an unknown commodity.
San Diego Padres (Yu Darvish) at Colorado Rockies (Austin Gomber)
The Padres are the top stack on the slate by a wide margin, as they currently have a 6.7 implied run total against Gomber in Coors. Gomber has not been able to get out hitters from either side of the plate this season, and San Diego has power throughout their lineup. Darvish is an interesting SP2 in tournaments, as he is only projected for about 4% ownership despite his salary falling to $8,000. Rostering pitchers in Coors Field is typically not a good idea, but the decrease in salary does mitigate some of the risk. The low ownership also increases the potential reward. Darvish has struck out 26.4% of hitters this season and has a 3.7 xFIP, so the upside is certainly there.
Seattle Mariners (Luis Castillo) at Los Angeles Angels (Shohei Ohtani)
Two of the best pitchers on the slate face off in this one. Ohtani is the top pitching option on the board, as his 26.6% chance of being a top-2 pitcher is more than 10 points higher than Cole’s 15.4%. As a result, he is also the most popular pitcher on the slate at 42.3%. He leads all of today’s pitchers in strikeout rate at 33.8%, and his 3.30 xFIP is better than everyone except Castillo (3.27). Castillo has the second-highest strikeout percentage on the slate at 29.2%. He gets a negative park shift going from one of the best pitcher’s parks in Seattle to one of the best hitter’s parks in Anaheim, but he is still one of the best pitching options on tonight’s slate.
Chicago Cubs (Marcus Stroman) at San Francisco Giants (Anthony DeSclafani)
There is not much that stands out from this game, but it is somewhat surprising that neither pitcher is getting more ownership given the context of the slate. The Giants have been one of the best teams in baseball against right-handed pitching this season, so it makes sense that Stroman would fall behind someone like Wells in the $8,000 to 9,000 price range. Wells is getting about 10 times the ownership, however, which is a bit extreme given that Stroman has been very good this season and has a 22.0% strikeout percentage and 3.60 xFIP. Similarly, DeSclafani has only struck out 17.6% of hitters but has a respectable 4.07 xFIP. He has struck out 23.7% of righties, and most of the Cubs’ top hitters are right-handed. He is not the most exciting pitcher, but he is not any worse than Kikuchi, who is projected for three times the ownership.
