MLB Pick'em Props: Sleeper Has HUGE DISCOUNT on Max Scherzer (Aug. 14)

Monday is a great time to get into the MLB pick’em game, as it is the No. 1 way nationwide to play higher or lower on MLB player performance. Today’s MLB pick’em plays come from Sleeper, who is offering both a massive discount on a superstar pitcher and a great deal through Stokastic: Just use the code STOKASTIC when you sign up for Sleeper and get a deposit match up to $100! Now let’s dive into some plays for Sleeper’s MLB pick’em contest.

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MLB Pick’em Predictions for Sleeper MLB | Aug. 14

Max Scherzer O/U 3.5 Strikeouts

It makes sense to start with the absolute layup of the Sleeper slate:

🚨 PICK ON SALE 🚨

We discounted Max Scherzer’s Ks pick by 53%!

7.5 ➡ 3.5 Ks 🤝 pic.twitter.com/kxobdSpUEf

— Sleeper Picks (@SleeperPicksHQ) August 14, 2023

Scherzer’s strikeout over/under is 7.5 across the industry, so Sleeper’s being less than half of that is an immediate lock.

If that is not enough, bear this in mind: Scherzer has eclipsed 3.5 strikeouts in 17 of 20 true starts (he has made 21 starts but exited one after only three scoreless innings), and his median game total is seven. At his 2023 rate of 10.1 strikeouts per nine, Scherzer projects to get his fourth strikeout in only the fourth inning, and he has just one outing (the aforementioned three-inning one) where he did not record at least one out in the fourth.

On top of that, Scherzer is taking on an Angels team that has strikeouts throughout the lineup, as Los Angeles has the third most in baseball over the last 15 days. Scherzer is currently projecting for 7.1 strikeouts on Stokastic, so no reason to overthink this: Lock in Scherzer over 3.5 and move onto the rest of the picks.

Best MLB Sleeper Play: Max Scherzer Over 3.5 Strikeouts (1.77x)

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Miles Mikolas O/U 5.5 Strikeouts

This is not exactly an over/under adjustment in the same vein of Scherzer’s, but in some ways it is nearly as lockable. Mikolas is a pure pitch-to-contact pitcher with really minimal strikeout numbers, averaging just 6.3 per nine and a 16.5% whiff rate, both near the bottom of MLB. He has just seven overs on 5.5 in 25 starts, compared to eight games with two or fewer strikeouts. So basically, Mikolas getting six or more is more of an outlier than him striking out next to no one.

Maybe it is the opponent that is driving up Mikolas’ number to 5.5 — the Athletics have the league’s fifth-highest strikeout rate — but that is pretty misleading; Oakland has struck out the fourth-fewest times over the last 15 days. And yes, the offense is still bad, and there is a good chance Mikolas can go deep into this game, but that has not been an indicator of strikeout success for him. He has gone six innings or more 14 times and struck out at least six in only five of those.

Stokastic projects Mikolas for 4.5 strikeouts, earning a 56% expected win rate for a 1.85x play on under 5.5.

Best MLB Sleeper Play: Miles Mikolas Under 5.5 Strikeouts (1.85x)

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Ronald Acuna O/U 1.5 Total Bases

The margin for this last pick is much narrower in terms of expected win rate (51%) and season-long performance, but the value here is still strong. Acuna is the presumed National League MVP, after all.

The Braves are getting Clarke Schmidt as an opponent, and Schmidt has been fairly hittable this season. Most notably, his hard hit rate and exit velocity allowed are both above league average, and he is surrendering a slugging percentage and ISO (to all hitters) that would place him around the worst in the league if he had the innings to qualify. His numbers are better in same-handed matchups, but the power numbers are still there, and Acuna is one of the biggest threats in the game.

Acuna is averaging well over two total bases per game (2.3) and has gone for more than 1.5 in over half his starts this season (67 of 117). Stokastic has him for 2.4 total bases tonight. His is one of the best contact/power combinations in MLB, and even ignoring that, Acuna is likely hitting leadoff in arguably the best lineup out there. Five plate appearances are likely and thus two total bases are easily on the table.

Best MLB Sleeper Play: Ronald Acuna Over 1.5 Total Bases (1.71x)

Author

Sam Smith

Sam Smith is a writer and editor with Stokastic and OddsShopper. He has been immersed in the world of professional sports data since 2015, while also writing extensively on the NFL for a multitude of blogs and websites. With Stokastic, Sam looks to blend his sports and editorial expertise with Stokastic's data to bring you the best fantasy information possible.