In the later rounds of Underdog Best Ball drafts, receivers can start to look the same. They all have warts, sometimes due to uncertainty about an injury or a depth chart, sometimes due to questions about skill or athleticism. It can be difficult to figure out who to click, but making the right choices can be the difference in whether you advance in the playoffs. So let’s try to differentiate some nice average draft position (ADP) values from less inspiring picks with the help of Stokastic’s Best Ball rankings.
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2023 NFL Best Ball Late-Round Wide Receivers
DO NOT Draft This WR: Adam Thielen (ADP 146.6)
Thielen will be 33 at the start of the season. Maybe that is not always a concern, but he already showed a clear decline the past couple of years. Two years ago, Thielen’s fantasy season was salvaged by 10 touchdowns, but last year the touchdowns dropped from 10 to six. And it is not just the counting stats; his separation metrics, yards per route run and yards after contact per reception show a player in decline. Plus, he is going to a worse offense in Carolina with a rookie quarterback who should also be running more. Thielen is going just three picks behind teammate Jonathan Mingo and 15 picks ahead of D.J. Chark, both of whom are better picks.
DO Draft This WR: Hunter Renfrow (ADP 193.5)
Renfrow is just two years removed from catching over 100 passes for over 1,000 yards and nine touchdowns in his third NFL season. He clearly took a step back last year, sitting seven games due to injuries and only accumulating 330 yards and two touchdowns in the 10 games he played. But his yards after catch per reception remained great. There is some uncertainty about whether Renfrow will be traded, so the negative here is that it is not necessarily clear where he will be. But wherever he ends up, Renfrow should get significant snaps and targets. The pick is a relatively small investment to bet on Renfrow’s talent.
DO NOT Draft This WR: Alec Pierce (ADP 154.5)
Pierce’s rookie season was not great. He played 16 games yet caught just 41 passes for 593 yards and two touchdowns. Of all receivers who were targeted at least 30 times, Pierce was given the 96th-best receiving grade by PFF. Of course, that was his rookie year, and young receivers can improve pretty quickly. But the bigger reason Pierce is not a great click is that it’s difficult to see much upside in a WR2 (at best) in an offense that probably won’t be throwing a lot. There is also some possibility that Josh Downs, who Colts wide receivers coach Reggie Wayne has been raving about all off season, will surpass Pierce on the depth chart. If drafting Anthony Richardson and wanting to add Pierce as a stacking partner to make a bet on the Colts offense, it is fine to take Pierce around his ADP. Otherwise, the investment is a bit rich for Pierce’s likelihood of hitting an upside.
DO Draft This WR: Robert Woods (ADP 209.5)
Similar to Pierce, Woods will be playing with a rookie quarterback this year in Houston. He is also coming off a subpar season in which he played all 17 games but had just 53 receptions for 527 yards and two touchdowns. But there are a few reasons to like Woods better than Pierce this year in Best Ball. First, all indications are that C.J. Stroud is a better passer than Richardson. Woods also had a better PFF receiving grade than Pierce last year, ranking 72nd of all receivers who were targeted at least 30 times. And the wide receiver pecking order in Houston is much less set than the Colts room. Woods is being drafted as the third receiver off the board after Nico Collins and John Metchie. But Metchie did not play last season, so it is unknown what kind of volume to expect from him relative to Woods. Plus, Metchie’s health is a concern. Woods over Pierce for overall fantasy production is not a great bet, but it is close, and Woods is going more than four rounds later than Pierce on Underdog.
DO Draft This WR: Richie James (ADP 191.2)
James had a career year with the Giants in 2022, catching 57 of his 70 targets for 569 yards and four touchdowns. Even better, 37 of those receptions and all of the touchdowns came in his final seven games. James ended the season with the 39th-best PFF receiving grade. And while Daniel Jones is a solid quarterback, joining Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs is a significant upgrade. James’ situation is muddled — he is currently the sixth Chiefs receiver off the board — but after all the success he had last season, it would not be shocking to see James earn a starting job at some point this season, possibly even in Week 1. And if he does end up starting some games for the Chiefs this season, James could crush his last-round ADP.
