MLB Pick'em Underdog Props: Good Stuff Brewing in Brewers-Rangers (Aug. 20)

MLB pick’em today turns to Underdog Fantasy for the best value on the slate, offering some great plays and statistical higher/lowers that other pick’em sites do not offer. Today’s Underdog pick has three plays — two of which come from a fascinating Brewers-Rangers matchup — and the standard payout for getting every one right is 6x (all three have to hit). An insured play will pay out 3x if all three connect (1x if two of three hit).

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MLB Pick’em Predictions for Underdog MLB | Aug. 20

Adrian Houser O/U 89.5 Pitches

The 89-pitch range is right around where Houser has hung all season, as 11 of his 16 (full) starts have had him within seven pitches either way of that mark. There are only a small handful of few outliers in there — just one game with triple-digit pitches and four with fewer than 80. So this line seems fair. However, the matchup is going to knock Houser’s projections down a peg.

The Rangers obviously have one of the best offenses in baseball, and they strike out and walk at around league-average rates. Houser is modest at best with both his strikeouts and walks, so his pitch count projects more as a product of performance rather than Texas working counts. Houser allows slightly more power on the road, and the Rangers are one of the most powerful teams in baseball. As such, MLB Pick’em Pro is projecting a shorter outing for Houser, giving him 83.0 pitches and a 60% chance of staying under 89.5.

Best MLB Underdog Play: Adrian Houser Under 89.5 Pitches

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Dakota Hudson O/U 91.5 Pitches

For whatever the Mets are (or are not) as a team, one thing for which they deserve credit is their lack of strikeouts. Only four teams in all of MLB whiff at a lower rate than New York. And since Hudson is one of the weaker strikeout pitchers out there right now, the ball is likely to be put in play quite a bit today.

Pitching to contact has not exactly been a recipe for success with Hudson; his WHIP is mediocre at 1.316 and his FIP is approaching 5.00. However, his ERA+ does have him 8% better than league average, so it is not as if he is getting blasted. Through three August starts, Hudson has a perfectly passable 3.86 ERA and .196 BABIP, and more importantly for Underdog pick’em purposes, he is averaging 89.3 pitches per outing.

Now, given that Hudson has eclipsed 91.5 in two of those three starts, ideally he will not cruise too quickly through the Mets lineup. The best scenario is he gets outs early by pitching to contact but also allows enough hits and runs to get the hook at some point before the seventh inning. That is exactly what MLB Pick’em Pro projects to happen, tabbing Hudson for 86.0 pitches and a 59% win expectancy on under 91.5.

Best MLB Underdog Play: Dakota Hudson Under 91.5 Pitches

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Rowdy Tellez O/U 0.5 Total Bases

With Tellez and the Brewers facing a heating-up Max Scherzer, this is not the most comfortable total bases play one could imagine. However, it does have the highest expected win rate of any over on the Underdog Fantasy board (53%), and Tellez is projecting for 1.7 total bases in the MLB Pick’em Pro model.

Tellez’s history against Scherzer is spotty, with 14 plate appearances and just three hits. That said, as always, batter versus pitcher is a small sample size and thus not really worth taking into consideration too much. What matters more is Scherzer striking out lefties at a far lower rate than he does righties this year, plus Tellez’s considerably better splits against opposite-handed pitchers. It is also worth noting Tellez has been better on the road than at home this year, and Texas’s Globe Life Field is a strong park upgrade from Milwaukee for lefty hitters in 2023.

Tellez has struggled this season and is just coming off a lengthy absence from the Brewers, but he still has hits in over half his starts. That is enough to take a crack on his small total bases line of 0.5, even against an elite pitcher.

Best MLB Underdog Play: Rowdy Tellez Over 0.5 Total Bases

Author

Sam Smith

Sam Smith is a writer and editor with Stokastic and OddsShopper. He has been immersed in the world of professional sports data since 2015, while also writing extensively on the NFL for a multitude of blogs and websites. With Stokastic, Sam looks to blend his sports and editorial expertise with Stokastic's data to bring you the best fantasy information possible.