The Sunday MLB slate has an even earlier start than usual (12:05 p.m. ET), so let’s not waste any time. We will again look to MLB Bet Pro to find the best values on MLB player props, and today the model is rolling with a trifecta of high-EV strikeout plays on a variety of pitchers. Let’s get into it.
But remember that these are just three of the +EV MLB player props on MLB Bet Pro; the model has dozens of other options, which you can access by signing up now to get Stokastic’s Bet Pro offer: One trial month for $24.95 that gets you access to MLB Bet Pro, plus access to our Premium Chalkboard!
Free MLB Props & Picks From MLB Bet Pro | July 30
3. Cristopher Sanchez O/U 3.5 Strikeouts
Sanchez does not have the sample size this year to get a great read on where he stands as a strikeout pitcher, but everything has been promising thus far. Aside from his fantastic sub-3.00 ERA and sub-1.000 WHIP, Sanchez is striking out 8.1 per nine innings and 22.9% overall. Those rates have led to him eclipsing 3.5 strikeouts in six of his eight starts in 2023.
The matchup is solid as well, as the Pirates are striking out slightly above league average for the season and are rolling out lineups chock-full of prospects. Plus, this line is 4.5 almost everywhere else across the industry and just 3.5 on FanDuel. With Sanchez projecting for 4.7 today on MLB Bet Pro, the over on 3.5 is getting a 64% win rate and 3% EV, making it the best over play among Sunday props.
Best MLB Player Prop: Cristopher Sanchez Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-168, FanDuel)
2. Cody Bradford O/U 4.5 Strikeouts
Bradford’s rookie season has been up and down. His metrics are passable but not great — 21.2% strikeout rate, 5.10 FIP, 1.135 WHIP — and he has bounced between the starting rotation and the bullpen throughout the year. That said, he has not started a game since July 7, when he pitched five innings of one-run ball but only struck out one.
All told, Bradford has started five games and fanned five or more in two of those. He has a couple of multi-inning relief outings tossed in where he would have hit this over (four strikeouts apiece in 3.0-inning and a 2.1-inning stints), but overall, the strikeouts are middling at best. Plus, as disappointing as the Padres have been, they do have a power-laden lineup that does not strike out very much, so this is an imposing matchup for a young pitcher.
MLB Bet Pro projects Bradford for 3.4 strikeouts, giving the under on 4.5 a 60% win expectancy and 4% EV.
Best MLB Player Prop: Cody Bradford Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-136, FanDuel)
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1. Jesus Luzardo O/U 7.5 Strikeouts
Luzardo is probably the second-best strikeout artist on this slate, behind only Blake Snell, and there is a lot to like about him today. The Tigers do not offer much resistance as an opponent, and Luzardo is striking a hair under 30% this season. However, MLB Bet Pro is not loving the higher 7.5 line on Luzardo, and it does like that the odds on his under are creeping below even.
Luzardo’s 10.8 strikeouts per nine are elite, to be sure. What is a touch less elite (but still very good) is his total of nine games in 21 starts with at least eight strikeouts (42.8%). On top of that, his strong per-nine rate paces him to earn his eighth strikeout after getting the second out in the seventh inning, something Luzardo has only done four times this year in 21 chances.
Again, this is hardly an indictment on Luzardo, as he is a star on the rise. It is a simple matter of the line being a bit too high today. MLB Bet Pro projects him for 6.7 strikeouts and the under for a 5% EV.
Best MLB Player Prop: Jesus Luzardo Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-106, FanDuel)
