The NBA is back with a small five-game slate on Tuesday. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks on DraftKings this evening, which include De’Aaron Fox and Josh Okogie.
NBA DFS Contrarian Picks — Plays For Today
Contrarian Stud — De’Aaron Fox: Sacramento Kings-Los Angeles Clippers
One of the breakout stars of the young season, De’Aaron Fox is the top contrarian stud on DraftKings at $9,600. He is entering tonight’s action averaging 30.4 points, 4.6 assists, 6.6 rebounds and 1.4 steals per game, Fox his having the best season of his career and established himself as a clear top-five point guard in the league. Matched up with a Clippers team he’s had a ton of success against in the past, there’s a ton to like about Fox in tournaments.
With other desirable spend-up options, Fox is flying under the radar a bit as the field would rather allocate his $9,600 price tag elsewhere. As of this writing only 4.60% of lineups are expected to roster Fox on DraftKings. With an optimal percentage of 10.10%, however, he stands out as an elite spend up to be contrarian play in GPP’s. While he might be a tad expensive for his median outcome, Fox’s upside is massive in this spot and he’s definitely worth getting over the field on in large field tournaments.
Contrarian Mid-Tier — Josh Okogie: Golden State Warriors-Phoenix Suns
Josh Okogie is currently the highest leveraged play on DraftKings and he’s the clear top contrarian mid-tier play at $4,900. Although he’s certainly more solid than spectacular, Okogie should see a ton of minutes tonight for a Suns team missing Kevin Durant, Grayson Allen, and Nassir Little. While it’s unlikely Okogie puts up a score that’s needed in tournaments, he’s too cheap for his current role and with DraftKings raising prices across the board, value is a bit harder to come by then on most slates.
Knowing that these numbers can and will change as more news comes in prior to lock, Stokastic’s tools currently have Okogie as the clear top differentiator on the slate with only 3.70 of the field expected to roster him on DraftKings. Compare that to his 16.00% optimal percentage and it’s obvious why he looks so good from a leverage standpoint. More of a cog in the machine type of play than anything else, Okogie is a nice way to get different at a position without a ton of opportunity cost.
Contrarian Value — Jarred Vanderbilt: Los Angeles Lakers-Dallas Mavericks
Without a ton of viable cheap plays to choose from, Jarred Vanderbilt stands out as the top contrarian value play on DraftKings at $3,700. Coming into tonight with a questionable tag and only center eligibility on DraftKings, the field isn’t getting to nearly enough Vanderbilt with only 14.70% of lineups expected to roster him. While Vanderbilt is also unlikely to put up a score that’s needed to win in tournaments, his cheap price tag calls for him to be optimal a whopping 23.20% of the time this slate plays out.
Although we aren’t rostering Vanderbilt for his upside, he’s one of the only players priced under $4,000 who’s actually projected for decent minutes tonight. With a bunch of really good spend up options it won’t take much from Vanderbilt to be viable and from a leverage standpoint, he allows for a different type of roster construction that otherwise couldn’t be utilized.
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