We have a five game slate tonight with plenty of injury news as the majority of the teams playing are on a back-to-back. We have several pay-up options available and we are also likely to have a surprising amount of value for a short slate. Let’s get to our NBA DFS studs plays for today, which includes thoughts on plays for Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic.
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NBA DFS Studs: Nikola Jokic or Luka DoncicÂ
Stud No. 1 – Nikola Jokic: Denver Nuggets at Chicago Bulls
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $11,900/ FanDuel: $12,300
- Stokastic’s Point Projections: DraftKings: 64.0/ FanDuel: 61.3
- Stokastic’s Ownership Projections: DraftKings: 7.7%/ FanDuel: 13.1%
Nikola Jokic has been difficult to roster lately for a variety of reasons, including lack of value and the presence of Joel Embiid at a cheaper price tag. Neither of those obstacles are in our way tonight as we should have plenty of value and the opportunity cost at center is relatively low.
Jokic is producing 1.88 DraftKings points per minute this season with a 32.7 percent usage percentage, 20.6 percent rebounding percentage and 46.7 percent assist percentage. Jamal Murray is questionable tonight on the second leg of a back-to-back. If he sits, Jokic’s projection will increase.
Stud No. 2 – Luka Doncic: Dallas Mavericks vs Los Angeles Lakers
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $11,800/ FanDuel: 12,400
- Stokastic’s Point Projections: DraftKings: 62.9/ FanDuel: 59.6
- Stokastic’s Ownership Projections: DraftKings: 10.5%/ FanDuel: 13.4%
Luka Doncic is questionable for tonight’s game. If he plays, he will once again be playing without Kyrie Irving. In five games without Irving this season, Doncic is producing 1.64 DraftKings points per minute with a 31.7 percent usage percentage, 12.9 percent rebounding percentage and 42.0 percent assist percentage in 40.5 minutes per game.
He has played at least 40 minutes in regulation in four of the five games. The Lakers rank in the top 10 in adjusted defensive rating this season, but they have also played at a top 10 pace
Stud No. 3 – Devin Booker: Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $10,400/ FanDuel: $10,700
- Stokastic’s Point Projections: DraftKings: 50.5/ FanDuel: 48.8
- Stokastic’s Ownership Projections: DraftKings: 1.5%/ FanDuel: 3.0%
Devin Booker is expensive, but he will be playing without Kevin Durant tonight. Booker averaged 1.52 DraftKings points per minute in three games without Durant this season. Bradley Beal was not active in any of those games and he will be tonight, however, so we should expect Booker’s production to be somewhat lower going forward. If his ownership remains as low as he is currently projected, he will be an interesting option in GPPs.
Stud No. 4 – Anthony Davis: Los Angeles Lakers at Dallas Mavericks
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $9,800/ FanDuel: $11,300
- Stokastic’s Point Projections: DraftKings: 53.8/ FanDuel: 54.3
- Stokastic’s Ownership Projections: DraftKings: 32.0%/ FanDuel: 13.9%
Anthony Davis is very inexpensive on DraftKings and currently projects as one of the most popular players on the slate. He is more correctly priced on FanDuel, but is still a strong play there in a favorable matchup against the Mavericks.
Dallas is in the bottom 10 in adjusted defensive rating this season and they rank in the top 10 in pace. Davis has produced 1.46 DraftKings points per minute in the 21 games that he has played with LeBron James active this season.
Stud No. 5 – LeBron James: Los Angeles Lakers at Dallas Mavericks
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $9,700/ FanDuel: $10,100
- Stokastic’s Point Projections: DraftKings: 51.4/ FanDuel: 50.3
- Stokastic’s Ownership Projections: DraftKings: 14.7%/ FanDuel: 20.6%
LeBron James joins Anthony Davis in an advantageous matchup against Dallas. James has produced 1.47 DraftKings points per minute in 33.6 minutes per game in the 21 games that he has played with Davis active this season. They are similarly priced on DraftKings, with Davis getting more ownership, but James offers a discount on FanDuel and projects to be the more popular of the two.
There are five games tonight and we are still waiting on important injury news. Be sure to check out Stokastic’s Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock shows.
