We’re back with a four-game NBA DFS slate on Saturday. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks on DraftKings this evening, which include Luka Doncic and Tim Hardaway Jr.
NBA DFS Contrarian Picks — Plays For Today
Contrarian Stud — Luka Doncic: Dallas Mavericks-Los Angeles Clippers
It’s always nice to be able to roster Luka Doncic at low ownership, and he is the top contrarian stud on DraftKings at $11,700. Throughout his young career, Doncic has made a habit of dominating the Clippers, and there’s a lot to like about him tonight as Dallas travels to Los Angeles. Coming into tonight’s action averaging 30.5 points, 8.3 rebounds, 8.1 assists and 1.2 steals per game, Doncic has remained one of the very best fantasy assets even with Kyrie Irving settling in for a full season in Dallas.
Despite his nightly production, the field is hesitant to allocate $11,700 for him on this slate. While expensive, Stokastic’s tools have Doncic being optimal 20.5% of the time this slate plays out. With only 15.2% of lineups expected to roster him, it makes sense why he looks so good as a differentiator in GPPs. With the Clippers still getting acclimated to James Harden both offensively and defensively, Doncic is in an underrated really good spot, and he is low-owned to boot.
Contrarian Mid-Tier — Tim Hardaway Jr.: Dallas Mavericks-Los Angeles Clippers
Sticking with the Mavericks, Tim Hardaway Jr. is the clear top contrarian mid-tier play on DraftKings at $5,300. Despite being the third wheel to Doncic and Irving, Hardaway Jr. is still productive from a DFS perspective, and he is too cheap tonight on DraftKings. While he is more of a solid player than a spectacular one, Hardaway Jr. comes into tonight averaging 26.5 DraftKings points per game. He is in a good spot to pick up some extra minutes with both Dereck Lively and Maxi Kleber out for the Mavericks.
As of this writing, Hardaway Jr. is projected to be in only 12.7% of lineups on DraftKings. Compare that to his 18.1% optimal percentage and it’s crystal clear why he stands out at $5,300. With Dallas missing bodies in the frontcourt, Stokastic’s tools are high on the Mavericks tonight with Hardaway Jr. leading the way from a contrarian standpoint. With only four games in play finding good contrarian options can be a bit difficult, but Hardaway Jr. fits that bill at a relatively inexpensive price point on DraftKings.
Contrarian Value — Luka Samanic: New Orleans Pelicans-Utah Jazz
Pivoting off of the Mavericks, the other team taht is impossible to get away from tonight is Utah. With both Jordan Clarkson and Lauri Markkanen out for the Jazz, every other player in Utah becomes more viable. While the field is flocking to the likes of Talen Horton-Tucker, Collin Sexton and Simone Fontecchio, Luka Samanic is the highest-graded leverage play on the entire slate.
Priced at only $3,000 on DraftKings, Samanic has played limited minutes so far this season, but he projects as one of the best value plays on the slate with Utah missing its top-two leading scorers. Currently projected to be optimal a whopping 12.8% of the time on DraftKings, Samanic is only projected to be 1.8% owned, showing his value as a contrarian play at the bare minimum price point. As always, while it’s unlikely Samanic puts up a score that’s needed to win tournaments, his $3,000 price tag opens roster construction doors that otherwise would be shut.
Looking for more NBA DFS advice? You’ve come to the right place. Sign up for Stokastic’s NBA DFS Premium Package for access to player projections, ownership projections and Stokastic’s state-of-the-art NBA DFS simulation tools.
