Saturday brings a staggered four-game featured slate with the action beginning at 7 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Luka Doncic has the best fantasy projection and, of course, LeBron James is going back to Cleveland tonight. Then there is also the Atlanta at Washington game with a total pushing 250 points. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays.
NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Saturday, November 25
Core Play of the Day — Luka Doncic: Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Clippers
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 59.76 | FanDuel: 56.67
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings: 11.8% | FanDuel: 9.5%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings:$11.700 | FanDuel: $11.900
Luka Doncic has the highest salary as well as the top median fantasy point projection across the DFS sites on Saturday. This is a back-to-back for the Clippers, who lost 116-106 to the visiting New Orleans Pelicans on Friday night. On the other hand, Dallas last played on Wednesday, and the Mavericks will not take the court again until Tuesday when they host the Houston Rockets.
This season, Doncic is producing similar numbers compared to his last four NBA campaigns across the various statistical categories. He is producing a steady 50 fantasy points in most games, with regular forays into the 60-plus range. Doncic has a 34.4% usage rate, with Kyrie Irving not too far behind at 28.6%, which makes it tough for there to be any other consistent fantasy options when they are on the court.
That is likely to be a little different tonight with Richan Holmes potentially drawing the start, with both Maxi Kleber and Dereck Lively II out with injuries. Dwight Powell is the other option, but both should see a baseline of 18-20 minutes with another dozen divvied up based on performance. Considering that Holmes has been a fantasy point-per-minute player throughout his career with multiple teams and as a starter and reserve, he is the preferred fantasy option tonight, but both pivot men are playable.
Kawhi Leonard has encountered only one back-to-back this season, and he played 33 and 41.5 minutes on the two legs. Last night he played 34 minutes, so it appears that there is a good chance he will see a similar workload tonight. Paul George (39) and James Harden (37) played the most minutes among the starters, and considering that the Clippers have only a 6-8 record despite winning three of their last four games, there is not a large margin of error in the standings. This is the final game of the night, tipping off a full hour later than the rest of the action. If you are rostering Leonard, be sure to allow for potential pivots to George, Harden or even Irving. This should not be too difficult, with a little forethought.
This month, Dallas has averaged 101.1 possessions per 48 minutes, which is the ninth-most in the league. That is a far cry from last year when the Mavericks were the third-slowest team in the league, with just 97.2 possessions per 48 minutes. Their defense has also slipped and they are allowing 118.8 points per 100 possessions, which is giving extra fantasy opportunities to them and their opponents.
Atlanta Hawks at Washington Wizards
It is a brave new world, as games with 240-plus point totals are becoming a daily occurrence. Washington and Atlanta are each playing at a top-three pace, with bottom-four defensive efficiency ratings during this month. Atlanta has cracked 125 points in regulation in six of 14 games and the Hawks just allowed Indiana to torch them for 157 points, without overtime.
The Wizards clearly are looking to lose, and they fumbled a very winnable game last night in Milwaukee, finally falling 131-128 to the Bucks. Three of their last four losses have been by four or fewer points, so it is too bad there is not a generational talent in the upcoming NBA Draft. Washington is playing a style reminiscent of the old American Basketball Association (ABA), where it seemed the best way to get the ball back was to allow the other team to shoot.
Though this is a back-to-back and the third game in four days for the Wizards, Jordan Poole (34) was the only starter to top 31 minutes. He is a strong option across the main DFS sites, though the primary target from Washington should be Kyle Kuzma as he has the most steady production with his ability to contribute across the box score and the highest upside. Daniel Gafford is a decent center, but there are better point-per-dollar options on the board. Tyus Jones has finally been putting everything together and his last three games have been among his best performances of the season. Deni Avdija can be frustrating because he does not look for his shot even though he is an effective scorer. Corey Kispert and Landry Shamet are the scoring options off the bench and fine for tournaments with the eight-team player pool.
Trae Young and Dejounte Murray dominate the offense for the Hawks, but it looks like Saddiq Bey and Bogdan Bogdanovic are emerging together as the tertiary option as Atlanta tries to fill the scoring void left behind by John Collins. Clint Capela and Oneyka Okongwu are decent tournament options, though they lack the potential upside of Jonas Valanciunas and are not as cheap as Holmes and Powell.
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The Prodigal Son Returns
LeBron James is carrying the questionable tag with him to Cleveland, but it would be a surprise if he sits tonight. Los Angeles last played on Wednesday and the team does not see action again until Monday in Philadelphia. James is five weeks away from celebrating his 39th birthday and he is still averaging nearly 50 fantasy points per game this season. Yes, he has had some short fourth quarters when the outcome of the game was already decided, but how many hurrahs does he have left for The ‘Land? Over his last two games in his old stomping grounds, he has averaged 38 minutes, 29.5 points, 13.5 rebounds, 8.0 assists and two combined blocks and steals. Those minutes are a little higher than expectations tonight, but he is still a threat for 50 fantasy points.
Anthony Davis (hip) is a game-time decision as well but is expected to play. If either of this dynamic duo sits, the other becomes a near-lock option. Rui Hachimura (nasal fracture) is out, though Cam Reddish (hamstring) may return. Christian Wood continues to disappoint this season, but he does have 24-plus fantasy points in two of his last four games, so he would be a differentiation option away from the Mavericks and Hawks, but not a strong one.
Donovan Mitchell has been out for the last 10 days while recovering from a hamstring injury, and if he returns, we should expect him to be in line for his typical workload. He is an interesting contrarian option and in turn curbs the appeal of Darius Garland, who has been outstanding with full run of the backcourt.
Additional NBA Building Blocks Pick — Sports Betting Opportunities
Luka Doncic is a DFS stalwart tonight, but we can hedge against that side of the portfolio by looking at the under on his 30.5 points prop. which is currently available at +100 on a couple of books. NBA Bet Pro currently has the 24-year-old projected for 37.2 minutes and 30.76 points. The “True Odds” (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager) are -108, which indicates this bet has close to 4% expected ROI, with the favorable line.
Doncic has scored 31-plus points in seven of his 15 starts, averaging 37.3 points in those games. In the eight that he fell below that nominal milestone, he has averaged 24.6 points. It is important to understand the difference between a median projection, like his 30.72 points and the range of potential outcomes.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
Ten teams in action tonight also played last night, so there will be ample updates and shifting dynamics throughout the day. Get all the latest news and analysis by tuning into the Stokastic Live Before Lock Show at 6:00 p.m. ET on YouTube, brought to you by Vivid Picks – new users, use this link to receive a $300 first deposit match AND your first play is secured for up to $25 in Vivid credit if it loses.
