We’re back with a small five-game slate on Saturday. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks on DraftKings this evening. We’ll discuss the Dallas Mavericks’ Luka Doncic as the top spend-up contrarian stud — as well as the Miami Heat’s Kevin Love as a source of value due to his low price tag.
NBA DFS Contrarian Picks — Plays For Today
Contrarian Stud — Luka Doncic: Dallas Mavericks-Milwaukee Bucks
It’s always nice to be able to roster Luka Doncic at low ownership, and he is the top contrarian stud on tonight’s slate at $12,200 on DraftKings. In what sets up as potentially one of best games of the season, two of the best offenses in the league matchup with Dallas traveling to Milwaukee in a game with a crazy 246-point total. While there is plenty to like on both sides of this contest, Doncic stands out as the clear top contrarian target.
Despite the Mavericks holding a 122.5-point team total, the field isn’t getting to a ton of Dallas, as most of their players are priced efficiently. Doncic is no exception here, and at $12,200 he is difficult to build around. That said, Doncic is widely projected to be the highest-scoring player tonight on DraftKings, and Stokastic’s tool’s have him optimal 9.5% of the time this slate plays out. With only 4% of lineups projected to roster him, it’s clear why he looks so good if you can get to him in tournaments.
Contrarian Mid-Tier — Santi Aldama: Memphis Grizzlies-San Antonio Spurs
The highest-graded leverage play in Stokastic’s tools, Santi Aldama is the top contrarian play on the board tonight. After missing the Grizzlies’ first six games, Aldama is coming off his best performance of the season in which he put up 24 points, five rebounds, four assists and two blocks in 25 minutes of action against the Lakers. Although Aldama got the benefit of some blowout run, he has established himself as a key part of the Grizzlies’ current rotation, and at $5,200, there is a lot to like about him on DraftKings.
As of this writing, Aldama is only projected to be 10% owned on DraftKings. Compare that to his optimal percentage of 17.6% and it makes sense why he looks so good from a leverage standpoint. While Aldama is more of a solid asset than a slate-breaking one, the Grizzlies desperately need his scoring, as they are without multiple key pieces. With the field flocking to other mid-tier plays at and around Aldama’s price point, getting to him in tournaments is appealing.
Contrarian Value — Kevin Love: Miami Heat-Chicago Bulls
As DraftKings continues to do a much better job of consistently pricing up players, there seems to be a definite lack of viable value pieces priced under $4,000. As such, we’re still dumpster diving a bit, and it’s back to ol’ reliable Kevin Love as the top contrarian value play on the slate.
Despite his very cheap $3,900 price tag, the field is not buying what Love is selling, as only 6.1% of lineups are expected to roster him on DraftKings. With an optimal percentage of 11%, Love is definitely worth getting over the field on in tournaments. Coming off his most productive game in weeks, Love accounted for seven points, nine rebounds and four assists in 16 minutes of action against the Nets. While it’s unlikely that Love will put up a score that’s needed to win in his limited run, his $3,900 price tag opens doors that would otherwise be shut with regard to roster construction.
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