Saturday rolls out a solid five-game featured slate with a 7 p.m. ET tipoff on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Desmond Bane, Luca Doncic and Giannis Antetokounmpo look like the key tournament options, with fantasy point-per-dollar plays coming from the Timberwolves, Pelicans and Grizzlies. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays.
NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Saturday, November 18
Core Play of the Day — Luca Doncic: Dallas Mavericks at Milwaukee Bucks
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 60.36 | FanDuel: 57.01
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings: <5.0% | FanDuel: 8.3%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $12,200 | FanDuel: $11,900
This game boasts a 245.5 projected point total, which is absolutely absurd. Both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Luca Doncic are candidates for the Core Play of the Day, though with Milwaukee having played last night by beating the Hornets in Charlotte 130-99 and Dallas coming into this game with a rest day, Doncic gets the DFS nod. Full disclosure: Antetokounmpo played just 28 minutes last night, and the Mavericks are back home tomorrow to host the Sacramento Kings.
Doncic is absolutely at an apex salary, and with Kyrie Irving healthy, he is averaging about 8% fewer fantasy points per game so far this season compared to last year. Of course, he is also playing 1.5 fewer minutes, taking 1.4 fewer shots, scoring 1.5 fewer points and corralling one less carom on average. This is a small sample size of just a dozen games, and if we remove the blowout loss from Tuesday in which Doncic played just 26.3 minutes for under 20 fantasy points, his averages would be in line with last year. Keep in mind that was the front end of a road back-to-back and not a marquee game.
It is likely that other value plays will appear as the injury reports continue to be updated throughout the day and injuries, rest, illness and typical Saturday shenanigans lead to more players being ruled out. Those should boost the popularity of Doncic and Antetokounmpo as tip off approaches, though not by quite as much as in past seasons, when salaries were far looser.
Desmond Bane: Memphis Grizzlies at San Antonio Spurs
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 47.42 | FanDuel: 45.98
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings: 35.9% | FanDuel: 38.2%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $8,900 | FanDuel: $8,900
Memphis is basically missing a full starting lineup with Ja Morant still serving his suspension, Steven Adams (knee) out for the year, Brandon Clarke (Achilles) not likely to return prior to the All-Star Break, plus Marcus Smart, Xavier Tillman and Luke Kennard out tonight as well.
That means major opportunities will be available for Desmond Bane, in a delightful fantasy matchup against the Spurs, who do not care about defense in most games. While the 25-year-old is coming off his worst fantasy performance of the season, that was a blowout, and none of the starters saw the court for the final 14.5 minutes. Heck, it was such a laugher that the Lakers also did a full “hockey line swap” by removing their starters, with only Cam Reddish and Taurean Prince still sneaking in for some fourth-quarter run.
Bane is currently sitting in the sweet spot on the salary sheet, with his popularity likely to drop a little as gamers look to work Doncic and Antetokounmpo onto more rosters.
Jaren Jackson Jr., Santi Aldama and Bismack Biyombo are good tournament plays on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Jacob Gilyard is dependent on the availability of Derrick Rose, who has not played this month while dealing with cranky knees. Even if Rose plays, he is unlikely to get more than 17 minutes, but those likely would be enough to cap Gilyard at between 22 to 24.
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Minnesota Timberwolves at New Orleans Pelicans
Looking at the noon player projections, six Timberwolves are currently among the nine most popular players on both DraftKings and FanDuel. These include Kyle Anderson, Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards, Mike Conley, Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels. Why? Likely a combination of the smaller player pool, these players having seen their respective salaries dip across the board and a terrific matchup against New Orleans. The Pelicans are on a back-to-back and are already mid-pack in defensive rating while playing at a fast pace.
Landing on three per lineup is probably the correct strategy. Running 100 lineups on both DraftKings and FanDuel with a 90% player cap and no other restrictions yields three or four T-Wolves per roster with very little Doncic or Antetokounmpo. Locking in this duo drops the “optimal” fantasy projection by about 15% and half of the rosters have two or three Minnesota players. Locking in just Doncic brings in two or three Timberwolves on 60% of lineups, while locking in Antetokounmpo sees a similar mix but on 80% of lineups.
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New Orleans is likely to be the key to the slate as the Pelicans are on a back-to-back, having beat the visiting Denver Nuggets 115-110 last night. Brandon Ingram (38 minutes), Herb Jones Jr. (37) and Jonas Valanciunas (36) logged heavy minutes, while Zion Williamson played 32.6. It would not be a surprise if Ingram or Williamson got the day off, but considering that prior to last night New Orleans last played Tuesday and does not play again until Monday, perhaps everyone will be available.
Jose Alverado is close to his debut this season after working his way back from an ankle injury. Even if he plays just 18 to 20 minutes, he looks like a decent value option on the main DFS sites, though there is a lack of upside and significant downside if he only plays a dozen minutes.
Additional NBA Building Blocks Pick — Sports Betting Opportunities
Rudy Gobert stands out tonight in his matchup against the Pelicans in New Orleans, with a -115 line on his double-double prop. NBA Bet Pro currently has him projected for 31.8 minutes and 11.74 rebounds. The “True Odds” (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager) of -128 indicates that this bet has an expected ROI of nearly 5%.
Gobert has double-doubles in eight of 11 games this season while averaging 11.2 points and 12.4 boards. Ten days ago, the Stifle Tower posted 17 points and 21 rebounds in 32 minutes against New Orleans, and in his last three matchups with Valanciunas with more than 29 minutes played, the Frenchman has averaged 31.8 minutes, 14.7 points and 13.7 rebounds.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
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