Thursday brings a fun seven-game featured slate beginning at 7:30 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Luka Doncic is the lead top play, though Nikola Jokic is right on his heels. They can be paired together, courtesy of the Utah Jazz value plays, but we will not be alone when choosing that path. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays.
NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Thursday, December 14
Luka Doncic: Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 66.57 | FanDuel: 62.85
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings: 18.1% | FanDuel: 11.9%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $11,900 | FanDuel: $12,600
Dallas is running shorthanded again with Kyrie Irving (foot) out for another week with his foot issue and Josh Green (elbow) looking at a similar return date. Maximilian Kleber (toe) may have a chance to return this weekend, though that will not impact tonight. Then there are questionable tags on Seth Curry (ankle) and Derrick Jones Jr. (quad).
Doncic is producing at a very similar level to last season, and when Irving is off the court, he receives a slight boost of around 4% in his fantasy production. In the five games since he sat out on Dec. 1, Doncic is averaging 41.3 minutes per game and 24.8 field goal attempts, with a 46.0% conversion rate from the field. This has culminated in 35.2 points, 9.0 rebounds, 12.4 assists, and 2.4 combined blocks and steals. Four of these outings have seen him cross over into the 60-fantasy-point plateau.
Minnesota has made dramatic improvements on defense this season as Rudy Gobert continues to gain familiarity in his second season away from Utah. Even so, Doncic is essentially matchup-proof and the Mavericks have a 116 implied point total. It is hard to be excited about the other Dallas players, though Tim Hardaway Jr. and Derek Lively II are in play for tournaments.
Anthony Edwards has been in and out of the lineup with a hip issue. If he is back, he can be considered against an inconsistent Dallas defense. If he remains out, then Karl-Anthony Towns, Kyle Anderson and Gobert are tournament options, along with point guard Mike Conley.
Nikola Jokic: Denver Nuggets vs. Brooklyn Nets
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 64.55 | FanDuel: 61.85
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings: 5.7% | FanDuel: 9.7%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $12,000 | FanDuel: $12,400
Nikola Jokic has been a regular in this article series over the last few seasons, and this year he has put together the best fantasy line of his career. Currently he leads the league with 12.6 rebounds per game and also has a career-high 27.2 points per game and a stellar 9.4 assists.
The two-time NBA MVP should be well rested after being ejected from Wednesday’s game, logging just over 16 minutes of action. Looking at DraftKings, Doncic is on the current optimal lineup based on the median fantasy projections as of 1 p.m. ET, which boasts a 270 total fantasy score. The best Jokic lineup is at 265.5, and the best lineup with both is at 256.4. Turning the attention to the blue site, neither superstar is on the current optimal lineup (309.4), with the best Jokic lineup only 1 point back and the best Doncic lineup nearly identical. When this duo is employed together on FanDuel, the lineup projects for 302.7 fantasy points.
Utah Jazz at Portland Trail Blazers
Keyonte George was hurt last night and is expected to be out through the weekend. Jordan Clarkson (thigh) is not expected back until early-January, and Lauri Markkanen did return to action last night after missing eight games with a hamstring injury, though he is doubtful to play on the back-to-back. Finally, John Collins is questionable after sitting out the last two contests with a non-COVID illness.
These injuries have opened up ample minutes, with Kelly Olynyk, Collin Sexton and Talen Horton-Tucker rating out as strong plays. Kris Dunn is a deeper cut who looks terrific on the late slate, and he is also in the mix for the full featured slate. If Collins remains out, Ochai Agbaji and Simone Fontecchio will also start popping up as secondary options.
Portland is still without Jerami Grant (concussion), though Deandre Ayton is close to a return after missing three tilts with knee soreness, and Malcolm Brogdon is also questionable, having missed the last two matchups with his own knee issue. We need more information, but there will be some fun fantasy players from both teams tonight.
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Additional NBA Building Blocks Pick — Sports Betting Opportunities
Stephen Curry currently has a -106 line available for the under on his 38.5 points + rebounds + assists (PRA) prop. Per the -116 “True Odds” (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager), this opportunity has a solid 4% expected ROI resulting from the inefficient line.
It is crucial to take advantage of OddsShopper to look at all the available lines since that can easily be worth another 2% to 3% ROI, even on perfectly neutral bets, based on how the different books value things. Looking at the screenshot below, the -115 line posted at Pinnacle with PRA that drops to 37.5 is clearly a tough number. That in turn should elevate our interest in the books to the right, particularly FanDuel, which is an excellent offering that is likely to evaporate quickly.
NBA Bet Pro has Curry projected for 35.2 minutes 28.32 points, 5.04 rebounds and 5.42 assists for 38.52 PRA. While his median projection is below the 38.5 prop line, this does not take into account the expected range of outcomes. The current available wager has a 54% win probability, which makes grabbing this offering at -106 a heady play.
In the last four games Curry played without Draymond Green, he averaged 35.5 minutes, 17.5 field goal attempts, 27.0 points, 4.5 rebounds and 4.5 assists for 35.5 PRA. In full transparency, these games resulted in 35, 38, 25 and 44 PRA. If we want to consider current form, Curry has averaged 39.3 PRA in 35.6 minutes per game in the last six with Green. Curry is no longer a youngster, and the baby-faced Warrior will be celebrating his 36th birthday this spring.
This is a road game, and the Clippers have the seventh-best defensive efficiency rating over the last 10 games, allowing 111.9 points per 100 possessions while also playing at the fourth-slowest pace during this timeframe.
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Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
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