NBA DFS Value: Suns Season Comes Down to Devin Booker (May 11)

Tonight NBA DFS players have two more playoff games to choose from. Stokastic’s team of experts will provide insights on each game and identify players who offer optimal NBA DFS value for your roster. Additionally, if you are a new user eager to join the fun, do not miss out on our special discount offer! By using the code ‘SCORE’, you can receive a remarkable 50% discount on your first week or first month.

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NBA DFS Value and Advice | May 11

Boston Celtics (-2.5) at Philadelphia 76ers

The Boston Celtics are facing an elimination game on the road against the Philadelphia 76ers, which makes it likely that their main players will get huge minutes. Jayson Tatum has been the most productive player for the Celtics in this series, averaging 1.4 DraftKings points per minute. He has a 5-point usage percentage lead over Jaylen Brown, who has been limited to just 1.02 DraftKings points per minute. Brown is still capable of taking over any game, but Tatum is the better option. Marcus Smart is a reliable mid-range option from Boston, producing 0.8 DraftKings points per minute in 34.5 minutes per game in this series. Al Horford, Derrick White and Malcolm Brogdon are viable options as well, but Smart is the best choice.

There is also the possibility of rotation changes for the Celtics, and Robert Williams and Grant Williams are the most likely beneficiaries. Robert Williams is a better per-minute fantasy producer, averaging 18 minutes per game in this series, while Grant Williams has averaged 15.5. Robert Williams is the better option, but Grant Williams is projected to have only about 6% ownership, so there is an ownership case to be made for him.

For the 76ers, Joel Embiid and James Harden are the top-projected players, with Embiid having a significant edge over Harden. Embiid has averaged 1.34 DraftKings points per minute in the four games he has played in this series, while Harden has averaged 1.25. Embiid is expected to produce at an even higher rate going forward, making him a strong pay-up option. Tyrese Maxey has averaged 39 minutes per game in the games that Embiid has played, while Tobias Harris has averaged 33 to 34 minutes per game. Harris dealt with foul trouble in the last game, but it is likely that he will play more minutes tonight. De’Anthony Melton and P.J. Tucker are the value plays with the most potential from the 76ers.

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Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns (-2.5)

Nikola Jokic is the highest-projected player on the slate, with 1.86 DraftKings points per minute in about 38.5 minutes per game in this series. He is significantly more expensive than Embiid and other players, and there are not many good, cheap value options available. It becomes a decision point on whether to pay up for Jokic or go for more balanced options. Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon all have significant upside at reasonable salaries. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Bruce Brown are mid-range NBA DFS value options, while Jeff Green and Christian Braun are near minimum salary punts.

Devin Booker and Kevin Durant are expected to play huge minutes in this elimination game. Booker has produced 1.37 DraftKings points per minute in 41.5 minutes per game in this series, while Durant has averaged 1.34 DraftKings points per minute in 41.9 minutes per game. Both are high-upside options that cost significantly less than Jokic, making them good choices for a more balanced lineup.

Deandre Ayton is questionable, but he is still very favorably priced. He was only 17% owned in the last game despite his cheap price tag, but he had a good game. If Ayton plays as expected, he is likely to play 34-plus minutes, making him one of the best values on the slate. Cameron Payne’s minutes are volatile, but there is at least 30-minute upside if he plays well. Landry Shamet is the best value, as his skill set best fits what the Suns need out of their cheap secondary players. T.J. Warren, Terrence Ross and Jock Landale are viable value plays as well.

Update: Deandre Ayton ruled out.

Author

Adam Scherer

Adam "ShipMyMoney" Scherer has been playing and analyzing DFS full-time since quitting law school in 2016. He has qualified for the 2016 FanDuel MLB Playboy Championship, the 2016 DraftKings Fantasy Baseball World Championship (3x) and the 2019 DraftKings Fantasy Basketball World Championship. You can find him on Twitter at @ShipMyMoneyDFS or by emailing [email protected].