NBA Player Props: Cameron Payne Has to Make 3's Eventually (May 11)

There are two NBA playoff games today, both potential close-out spots. The 76ers and Nuggets are looking to move on to the conference finals, while the Celtics and Suns are trying to keep their seasons alive. Ahead of these high-stakes matchups, let’s take at today’s best NBA player props on NBA Bet Pro.

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Today’s Top NBA Player Props From NBA Bet Pro | May 11

3. Malcolm Brogdon Under 22.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-103, Caesars)

Brogdon’s production and opportunity this postseason have been remarkably consistent. He is getting 25 to 30 minutes most nights, scoring 13 to 20 points and adding some peripheral stats. And for the most part, he is falling within a few ticks of 22.5 points + rebounds + assists (PRA) on either side. Brogdon is going over more often than under (7 of 11), so the key here is landing on one of those nights where he barely misses because he rarely busts or booms completely.

NBA Bet Pro gives him a 53% chance of staying under 22.5 tonight, largely due to a slightly reduced assist projection (3.5, down from his 3.9 for the postseason). The odds at -103 are also pushing this to a 5% expected ROI, so that is helping to offset what projects be a close bet. Still, Brogdon is getting a 21.2 PRA line in the model, so this is a solid under play.

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2. Michael Porter Jr. Under 2.5 3-Pointers (+100, DraftKings)

Porter has been extremely up and down in the playoffs, as he has been unable to string together high-end games. That extends to his 3-point shooting — coming off games with at least three 3’s, he never made at least three in the next one. Well, in Game 5 he made five 3’s after going 2-for-9 the game prior. NBA Bet Pro is only projecting Porter for 13.9 points and 2.1 3’s in over 34 minutes tonight, so it is expecting another inefficient game. And at plus money on a 52% win expectancy, there is a lot of value in shorting Porter.

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1. Cameron Payne Over 1.5 3-Pointers (+165, BetMGM)

The only questionable player for the Suns at the moment is Deandre Ayton, who is not going to affect Payne’s 3-point projection much either way. Devin Booker did suffer an injury last game as well, but he is not on the injury report as of now. All this is to say that, despite Payne’s window being yellow in the model to signify that his teammates’ statuses could swing the projection, not much is going to change leading up to tip no matter what happens with Ayton.

Update: Deandre Ayton ruled out.

Now, Payne has not shot well since taking over as the Suns’ lead point guard in Chris Paul’s absence. He has yet to make more than one 3 in a playoff game this year, and he is shooting just 22.2% from deep. That said, Payne is projecting for 27 minutes tonight, and he made at least two 3’s eight times in 13 games in which he played at least 27 minutes in the regular season. NBA Bet Pro is projecting him for 1.5 3’s — right on the line — and is only giving him a 40% chance to hit the over, but the big driving force is the +165 odds. That is giving the over a lot of value and makes it the No. 1 +EV prop of the day.

Author

Sam Smith

Sam Smith is a writer and editor with Stokastic and OddsShopper. He has been immersed in the world of professional sports data since 2015, while also writing extensively on the NFL for a multitude of blogs and websites. With Stokastic, Sam looks to blend his sports and editorial expertise with Stokastic's data to bring you the best fantasy information possible.