NBA Player Props: Kyle Lowry at the End of the Line (April 30)

There are two NBA playoff games, with the Heat kicking off their series against the Knicks and the Warriors meeting the Kings for a Game 7. Today’s best NBA player props on NBA Bet Pro have identified some top plays with positive ROI, so let’s take a look at the three best NBA player props for Sunday, April 30.

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Today’s Top NBA Player Props | April 30

3. Kyle Lowry Under 8.5 Points (+105, DraftKings)

There simply is not much to like about Lowry on the court these days. Despite Tyler Herro being out for the remainder of the postseason, Lowry has not seen an uptick in minutes at all, playing less than 20 in three of five games in Round 1 and never approaching 30. He stayed under 8.5 points in three games as well, including one game where he got to almost 24 minutes (6 points).

The Heat offense is going to run through Jimmy Butler, with Gabe Vincent and Bam Adebayo being the secondary ball handlers. Then Max Strus and Caleb Martin project for more wing minutes, and NBA Bet Pro only has Lowry at 18. That is leading to a projection of just 6.1 points and a 52% chance of him staying under 8.5.

Don’t miss out on this DraftKings deal; all you need to do is bet $5 on Heat-Knicks and you will get $150 — win or lose!

2. Stephen Curry Over 5.5 Rebounds (-114, BetRivers)

Curry has had a tough time with this line in the series, only going over twice in six games, but he did average 6.1 rebounds per game in the regular season. He also went over against the Kings three times in four meetings, and the lone miss was a five-rebound effort. This game does not have a crazily high total (228.5 to 229.0), but it is 20 points higher than the the other game and NBA Bet Pro is predicting a ton of rebounds for the Warriors. Kevon Looney, Draymond Green and Curry all project for over seven boards, so the expectation is a lot of rebound opportunities. And Curry is far and away the best rebounding guard in this game.

NBA Bet Pro is giving this play a huge 7% EV and a 57% chance of hitting.

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1. Jimmy Butler Under 1.5 3-Pointers (-118, BetRivers)

Again, the Heat are going as Butler goes. That said, his 3-point shooting last round was so unlike him that NBA Bet Pro is predicting some serious regression today. He made at least two 3’s in each of the last four games, but two is a number he hit just seven times — seven — in 64 games in the regular season. That is a 10.9% hit rate. Yes, one of those seven overs came against the Knicks, but he hit a total of one across the other three matchups with New York.

Butler is hot, but NBA Bet Pro does not expect that to manifest itself from beyond the arc. The under has a 60% win expectancy, and at decent -118 odds, that is giving it a whopping 12% EV.

Author

Sam Smith

Sam Smith is a writer and editor with Stokastic and OddsShopper. He has been immersed in the world of professional sports data since 2015, while also writing extensively on the NFL for a multitude of blogs and websites. With Stokastic, Sam looks to blend his sports and editorial expertise with Stokastic's data to bring you the best fantasy information possible.