NBA Player Props: Timberwolves Too Reliant on Anthony Edwards? (April 21)

There are three NBA playoff games scheduled for Friday, and as the postseason unfolds, certain trends are beginning to emerge. Subscribing to NBA Bet Pro is crucial for optimizing the potential of NBA player props. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the top three +EV plays for this slate.

Today’s Top NBA Player Props | April 21

3. Bogdan Bogdanovic Under 13.5 Points (-118, Caesars)

Shot volume is simply not there for Bogdanovic right now — despite averaging 30 minutes through two games of this series — so he needs to be ultra-efficient to hit this line. He was able to get there in Game 2, scoring 18 points on just 11 shots (81.8% true shooting), but in Game 1 he had only 9 points on 43.1% true shooting.

Too much of the Hawks scoring is consolidated with its two star guards in Dejounte Murray and Trae Young. Those two are both averaging over 20 field goal attempts through two games, and NBA Bet Pro is expecting much of the same tonight — Young and Murray project for about 25 and 19 points, respectively. Bogdanovic is only getting 11.9 in the model, giving the under on 13.5 a 57% win expectancy and 6% ROI.

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2. Anthony Edwards Under 5.5 Assists (-165, BetRivers)

Minnesota staying competitive appears to be entirely reliant on Edwards’ scoring. He is the only Timberwolf averaging over 14 points through two games, and his only teammate to eclipse 15 points in either game is Rudy Gobert (19 in Game 2). So while the Timberwolves are going to put the ball in Edwards’ hands a ton, he does not project to be passing the ball much — NBA Bet Pro has him at just 4.2 assists compared to 25.5 points.

Edwards only averaged 4.4 assists per game this season and has not reached six assists in a game in almost three weeks. It is odd that this number is 5.5 at BetRivers — every other sportsbook has this at a much more sensible 4.5. For now, this bet has a 6% EV on a 66% win expectancy due to the juice, but with Gobert and Jaylen Nowell questionable, there could be some movement in the projections before tip.

1. Darius Garland Over 2.5 Rebounds (+100, BetRivers)

Garland has been up and down in this series offensively, and he is 1-for-2 on this rebounding line in this first-round series. However, counting the playoffs, Garland has gone over 2.5 rebounds in three of five games against the Knicks this season, and teammate Cedi Osman is questionable tonight. Osman is not a rebounding specialist or anything, but he did grab six in Game 2, so his absence could open up some rebounding opportunities on the perimeter for Garland.

But more than that, this prop has plus money while having better than 50-50 odds of hitting, which makes for a profitable bet long term. As of now, with Osman projecting as playing on NBA Bet Pro, Garland is tabbed for 3.4 rebounds, leading to a 53% win rate on the over and 7% EV. Those numbers could improve a bit if Osman sits.

Author

Sam Smith

Sam Smith is a writer and editor with Stokastic and OddsShopper. He has been immersed in the world of professional sports data since 2015, while also writing extensively on the NFL for a multitude of blogs and websites. With Stokastic, Sam looks to blend his sports and editorial expertise with Stokastic's data to bring you the best fantasy information possible.