If we comb through Stokastic’s NFL boom/bust probability tool, we are able to identify which NFL DFS picks for Week 4 may give us the best chance of winning big-dollar contests on sites like DraftKings and FanDuel. When more information on player availability comes out, we will add an update on Sunday morning to see how the data has shifted.
See below for a quick refresher on Stokastic’s NFL DFS boom/bust tool, along with explanations of what each column represents. We’ll mainly be referencing boom and bust percentages while we search for the highest-upside plays that can help win us Week 4 DFS tournaments on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Boom%: Probability of achieving positional target score based on chance of being the top 1 QB, top 2 RB, etc.
Bust%: Probability of failing to achieve positional value – 2 fantasy points.
Ceiling: 75th percentile performance.
Floor: 25th percentile performance.
Optimal%: Probability that player will be in the perfect lineup that slate.
NFL DFS Picks – Week 4 High-Upside Boom Plays
Given Stokastic will continue to finalize NFL player projections as more news is released, the boom and bust probability data is sure to fluctuate here and there. Keep checking back to the tool later in the week to see how things shake out.
Week 4 NFL DFS Boom/Bust Probability – Sunday Update #2
Final update (12:30 PM ET):
Week 4 DraftKings Top Five Boom Probabilities: Keenan Allen, Puka Nacua, Christian McCaffrey, Josh Jacobs, Stefon Diggs
Week 4 FanDuel Top Five Boom Probabilities (excluding D/ST): Keenan Allen, Christian McCaffrey, Justin Jefferson, Tony Pollard, Stefon Diggs
You can look through the full data for ALL positions on the boom and bust probabilities page.
Be sure to check out Stokastic’s other Week 4 tools:
🏈 NFL Contest Sims
🏈 NFL Homepage
🏈 NFL Lineup Generator
🏈 NFL Player Projections
🏈 NFL Projected Ownership
🏈 NFL Top Stacks Tool
🏈 Stokastic YouTube (LIVE)
Week 4 NFL DFS Boom/Bust Probability – Sunday Update #1
Actives and inactives are coming in, and NFL player projections and boom/bust probabilities for Week 4 have been updated.
As of Noon ET:
DraftKings: Keenan Allen owns the highest boom probability by a solid margin at 32.9%. He is followed by Puka Nacua (18.6%), Christian McCaffrey (18.1%), Josh Jacobs (16.2%) and Stefon Diggs (15.2%) across all positions.
FanDuel: Allen is first in the FD player pool at a 22.8% boom probability, with McCaffrey (20.3%), Eagles D/ST (17.4%), Justin Jefferson (16.2%) and Diggs (14.9%) in the top five.
You can look through the full data for all positions on the boom and bust probabilities page. We will have one more update to this article before lineups lock on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Be sure to check out Stokastic’s other Week 4 tools:
🏈 NFL Contest Sims
🏈 NFL Homepage
🏈 NFL Lineup Generator
🏈 NFL Player Projections
🏈 NFL Projected Ownership
🏈 NFL Top Stacks Tool
🏈 Stokastic YouTube (LIVE)
NFL DFS Picks – Week 4 High-Upside Plays
It’s time to go through each position with a focus on high-upside picks. Zooming out, it’s Keenan Allen who has the highest boom probability of anyone in the player pool on DraftKings and FanDuel, with Davante Adams close behind.
Let’s get to a closer examination of more of the top boom and bust probabilities for Week 4 NFL DFS.
Quarterback: Justin Fields
DraftKings – $6,600; 6.2% Boom | FanDuel – $7,200; 8.8% Boom
This is certainly not for the faint of heart. After all, the Bears have been one of the league’s most disappointing teams after the first three weeks of the 2023 NFL season, and Justin Fields‘ uninspiring play has been a big part of that letdown. Expectations were high following some promising performances from the QB last year, particularly after the arrival of DJ Moore, but Chicago has been an utter disaster so far.
For DFS purposes, we cannot lose sight of what Fields’ week-to-week ceiling is, and his price has come down for Week 4’s winnable matchup against the Broncos. He can rack up DraftKings and FanDuel points in a hurry with his elite rushing ability, and Stokastic NFL player projections are pegging him near the top of boom probability among quarterbacks for this slate. You also have to figure DFS ownership will not be too out of control on Fields after the mess of a start, and on DraftKings, he is currently projected to be in 6.6% of lineups.
Running Back: Christian McCaffrey
DraftKings – $9,200; 14.2% Boom | FanDuel – $9,700; 16.7% Boom
So long as Christian McCaffrey is healthy, he will be one of the top high-upside options for NFL DFS every week. Across San Francisco’s opening three wins, he has 60 carries for 353 yards and three touchdowns as well as 11 receptions for an additional 70 yards, and the versatile back has played 80% of the snaps so far.
Once again McCaffrey has one of the highest boom probabilities at the running back position in this home matchup against the Cardinals. The 49ers have the week’s highest implied team total at just over 29 points, and McCaffrey is going to keep being utilized heavily in both the run game and pass game. We will also be curious to see if Deebo Samuel (currently questionable) is active on Sunday, as that could open up even more opportunities for San Francisco across the board. The price is obviously quite steep, but we know what McCaffrey is capable of producing when at full strength.
Wide Receiver: Davante Adams
DraftKings – $8,000; 13.5% Boom | FanDuel – $8,100; 14.0% Boom
Keenan Allen, who we highlighted in our wide receiver breakdown earlier in the week, currently has the highest boom probability at WR on DraftKings and FanDuel, but Davante Adams is right there near the front of the pack too. As of Sunday morning, Adams has a 13.5% boom probability on DK and 14.0% boom probability on FD for Week 4, even with starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo getting ruled out for the game.
The Raiders have been relentlessly feeding Adams the ball — he’s up alongside Puka Nacua with a league-best 38.8% target share so far — and DFS players who have been rostering him have been reaping the rewards. Las Vegas will do battle with the Chargers, who have already been tormented by the likes of Tyreek Hill (Week 1) and Justin Jefferson (Week 3) early on this season. Adams will be highly popular for Week 4 – at time of writing he is checking in with close to 22% projected ownership on DraftKings and over 24% on FanDuel.
Tight End: Mark Andrews
DraftKings – $5,400; 3.9% Boom | FanDuel – $6,700; 3.8% Boom
Tight end is tricky in Week 4 with not a lot of great-looking spots, especially since Travis Kelce is not in the main slate player pool. Mark Andrews has yet to hit his ceiling through his first two games, but he is worth consideration in Week 4 against the Browns at his salaries of $5,400 on DraftKings and $6,700 on FanDuel. For the time being, Baltimore’s tight end has a boom probability of 3.9% on DK and 3.8% on FD.
The Ravens are dealing with injuries to Odell Beckham and Rashod Bateman, and now that those two have been officially ruled out, Andrews could be called upon to carry more of the pass-catching load alongside Zay Flowers against the Browns. While it is not the most favorable of scoring environments in general against a Cleveland defense that has performed well early in 2023, the volume should be there for the veteran.
Latest NFL DFS Content
NFL DFS Picks – Week 4 Lower-Upside Situations
Using the boom/bust tool, we can gain insight into which players and teams may be in more unfavorable positions for each NFL DFS slate. Each week we will take a look at two seemingly less exciting games to see what the player-level boom and bust data shows.
Buccaneers/Saints
This game has the lowest over/under of the week at 39 points, with the Saints favored by 3.5 points at time of writing. Alvin Kamara is expected to make his season debut after serving his suspension, so it will be intriguing to see how he slots into the game plan here in Week 4. We also are waiting on the status of quarterback Derek Carr, who remains questionable for New Orleans.
Despite the low total, are there any pieces we can target here? If we filter the boom and bust probability tool to only include Tampa Bay and New Orleans, we see Chris Olave (9.8%), Buccaneers D/ST (9.1%), Michael Thomas (7.8%), Rachaad White (6.6%) and Mike Evans (5.1%) in the top five spots in boom probability on DraftKings. On FanDuel, Olave (8.5%), Buccaneers D/ST (6.8%) and Kamara (5.4%) are in the top three.
As far as bust probability goes, Saints running back Kendre Miller is showing one of the highest numbers due to the impending return of Kamara.
Bengals/Titans
Though this matchup is not getting a lot of love in NFL DFS this week, it is an interesting one to examine closely given some of the players involved, namely Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Derrick Henry. The total for this one is at 42.5 points and Cincinnati is favored by a field goal despite being on the road.
The top DraftKings NFL DFS boom probabilities among these teams belong to Chase (12.2%), Chig Okonkwo (9.5%), DeAndre Hopkins (7.8%), Joe Mixon (6.9%) and Tee Higgins (5.0%). Henry has a 3.2% boom probability and 49.5% bust probability at home, and at quarterback, Burrow owns a 3.2% boom probability and 49.5% bust probability as of now, with Ryan Tannehill at a 1.9% boom probability and 42.9% bust probability.
As a reminder, projections are one piece of the NFL DFS puzzle and other factors like projected ownership, roster construction and game theory should be considered when constructing daily fantasy football lineups for Week 4.
Be sure to stay glued to player news and projection updates leading up to lock so you can make the most informed lineup decisions possible. A lot could change in the data as more information comes out, so we will add an update to the top of this article as we get closer to kickoff.
More Stokastic NFL DFS Week 4 Tools 🏈
NFL Contest Sims
NFL Homepage
NFL Lineup Generator
NFL Player Projections
NFL Projected Ownership
NFL Boom/Bust Probability
NFL Top Stacks Tool
Stokastic YouTube
