Using Stokastic’s NFL DFS player projections, we can see which receivers are in favorable positions to succeed in Week 4. We will look through the numbers on DraftKings and FanDuel to locate the top NFL DFS wide receiver picks and fades, and we will have an added update on Sunday morning showing how the data has changed for Week 4.
Through the first three weeks, here are the top 10 in target share at wide receiver (must have played three games):
Puka Nacua (38.8%), Davante Adams (38.8%), Tyreek Hill (35.0%), Chris Olave (33.0%), Zay Flowers (32.8%), Keenan Allen (32.3%), Deebo Samuel (31.3%), Stefon Diggs (30.4%), Michael Pittman Jr. (30.4%), Garrett Wilson (29.5%)
And the early top 10 in snap count percentage:
Michael Pittman Jr. (99%), DeVonta Smith (99%), Justin Jefferson (98%), Ja’Marr Chase (96%), Alec Pierce (96%), D.J. Moore (94%), Davante Adams (94%), Garrett Wilson (94%), K.J. Osborn (93%), Keenan Allen (92%)
Top NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks & Fades for Week 4
Stokastic’s first run of NFL player projections for the Week 4 main slates on DraftKings and FanDuel has been uploaded.
For now, Keenan Allen, Davante Adams, Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, Ja’Marr Chase and Puka Nacua are all near the top in terms of receiver boom probability on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The order varies depending on the site, and we will have to track all news to see how things change leading up to Sunday.
Let’s dive in and see what else is standing out as of Friday.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks & Fades for Week 4 – Sunday Update
NFL DFS projections have been updated for Week 4. At wide receiver on DraftKings, Keenan Allen remains on top with a 31.7% boom probability and he is trailed by Puka Nacua, Stefon Diggs, George Pickens and Justin Jefferson in the top five.
If we move to FanDuel boom probability, Allen is still on top but by a slimmer margin over Jefferson and then Diggs, Davante Adams and Ja’Marr Chase.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks for Week 4 | DraftKings & FanDuel
Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers
It has been an absurd start for Keenan Allen in 2023. He has a 32.3% target share and has recorded 32 receptions for 402 yards and two touchdowns through the first three games. Justin Herbert has been locking in on him, and that will not stop as long as Allen stays healthy. For Week 4, the veteran receiver has the highest boom probability of the entire player pool at $7,900 on DraftKings.
You have to figure ownership will be through the roof. Allen has been dominating, fellow wide receiver Mike Williams is sidelined, and it’s also not an imposing matchup against the Raiders. If we look at the early upload of projected ownership for NFL Week 4, we see Allen projected for 19.4% ownership on DraftKings and 12.3% ownership on FanDuel.
Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams
Rookie Puka Nacua has been tremendous in the absence of Cooper Kupp, topping the NFL in target share (38.8%) alongside Davante Adams. Matthew Stafford has been peppering him with opportunities early and often, and he is again grading out as one of the top point-per-dollar wide receiver plays in Stokastic’s Week 4 NFL DFS projections.
Nacua, listed at $6,700 on DraftKings and $7,500 on FanDuel, comes up against the Colts this weekend, with the Rams implied for 22 points. He was listed on the injury report with an oblique concern but then logged full practices to close the week and is expected to be active this weekend. Nacua still feels underpriced relative to his significant role on this Week 4 main slate.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Fades for Week 4 | DraftKings & FanDuel
Kendrick Bourne, New England Patriots
Kendrick Bourne, who posted four catches for 46 yards on five targets in Week 3, finds himself ranking out pretty poorly in the Week 4 wide receiver pool, at least as far as point-per-dollar value goes. For now, he is projected for 9.73 fantasy points (1.95 Value) at $5,000 on DraftKings and 7.90 fantasy points at $5,700 on FanDuel (1.39 Value) for this Sunday’s matchup against Dallas.
New England’s offense with Mac Jones under center has been shaky at best in the early stages this season. Bourne’s field time has also taken a hit since the return of DeVante Parker — after playing 91% of the snaps in Week 1, he has recorded snap rates of 51% and 56% in Weeks 2 and 3, fewer than both Parker and JuJu Smith-Schuster.
Jahan Dotson, Washington Commanders
It has been a slow start for Jahan Dotson, who only has 10 receptions for 83 yards through Washington’s first three games. He has been logging heavy snaps but has yet to connect with quarterback Sam Howell for a big DFS outing in 2023.
For Week 4’s game at Philadelphia, the second-year pro is showing up near the bottom of wide receivers in terms of DFS point-per-dollar value. At time of writing, Dotson has a projection of 8.74 fantasy points at $4,800 on DraftKings (1.82 Value) and 7.05 fantasy points at $5,500 on FanDuel (1.28 Value) for this Sunday, with the Commanders implied for 18 points on the NFL betting odds board.
As usual, it will be critical to monitor the news throughout the week to see if better daily fantasy football values open up before lock on DraftKings and FanDuel.
We should also remember that accurate player projections are just one piece of the NFL DFS puzzle and that other factors like projected ownership, roster construction and game theory should be considered when building lineups.
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NFL Boom/Bust Probability
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