NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks & Fades – Player Projections Preview for Week 3: Justin Jefferson

Which Week 3 wide receiver picks are projections siding with early in the week? Who should we be wary of as we set our daily fantasy football lineups? Using Stokastic’s NFL DFS projections as a reference, we can try to pinpoint some of the best NFL DFS wide receiver picks and fades for the main slate.

Before the slate locks on DraftKings and FanDuel, and even as the early games are going and more information comes out about players in the afternoon games, you need to stay vigilant in tracking all relevant player news and injury situations. Even a seemingly small injury or status update could have drastic effects on the best DFS value.

Stokastic will be constantly tinkering with player projections as more news trickles in. We’ll be sure to take another look at the wide receiver numbers and add to this article on Sunday morning. There is also expected to be poor weather this weekend, so we will have to monitor how that could affect playing conditions closer to kickoff.

Week 3 Update: Tyreek Hill (25.7%) and Justin Jefferson (23.9%) have the highest DraftKings boom probabilities at wideout heading into Week 3 NFL DFS, as of 11:30 AM ET on Sunday morning. Keenan Allen, CeeDee Lamb and Mike Williams are near the top too.

Over the first two weeks of 2023, here are the top 10 in target share at the wide receiver position (must have played in two games):

Puka Nacua (38.8%), Davante Adams (35.5%), Tyreek Hill (32.9%), Zay Flowers (32.6%), Chris Olave (32.3%), Michael Pittman (32.2%), Deebo Samuel (30.3%), DeAndre Hopkins (30.2%), Garrett Wilson (29.9%), Justin Jefferson (29.4%)

And the top 10 in snap count percentage after two weeks (must have played in two games):

Justin Jefferson (99%), DeVonta Smith (99%), Michael Pittman Jr. (98%), Ja’Marr Chase (97%), Alec Pierce (95%), A.J. Brown (94%), K.J. Osborn (93%), Keenan Allen (93%), Jonathan Mingo (92%), Garrett Wilson (92%)

NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks for Week 3 – Player Projections Preview

For Week 3 on DraftKings, Justin Jefferson (vs. LAC) checks in as the highest-priced wideout at $9,300, with Tyreek Hill ($9,000 vs. DEN) close behind and Stefon Diggs ($8,100 at WAS), Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,900 vs. ATL), CeeDee Lamb ($7,700 at ARI) and Keenan Allen ($7,600 at MIN) among others bunched up below. Jefferson ($9,700), Hill ($9,600), Allen ($8,800), Lamb ($8,500) and Diggs ($8,000) are the five most expensive wide receivers on FanDuel.

It should be noted Hill (ankle) popped up on the injury report after being limited at practice on Wednesday before returning in full Thursday, while St. Brown (toe) missed practice Wednesday and returned Thursday. Jaylen Waddle (concussion) and DK Metcalf (ribs) did not practice Thursday and are questionable at this time. All are still being projected for now, though we should get firmer updates on their Week 3 statuses over the next couple of days.

Now, let’s see how Stokastic’s early NFL projections are shaking out for Week 3.

Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings

Stokastic’s initial run of main slate projections has been loaded, and it’s Justin Jefferson who’s the leader in the pack in projected fantasy points and boom probability. Jefferson’s boom probability is at 20.6% on DraftKings and 20.2% on FanDuel for Week 3, tops of all wide receivers on both sites.

Early NFL projected ownership numbers show Jefferson atop both the DraftKings and FanDuel lists — he’s at 24.9% projected ownership for the DraftKings main slate and 25.2% projected ownership on FanDuel at time of writing.

Jefferson hasn’t reached the end zone yet but has racked up 20 catches for 309 yards through the first two weeks of the season. He’s understandably going to be popular in DFS lineups, and it doesn’t hurt that this should be a nice environment for fantasy production against Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen and the Chargers in a game that has strong stacking appeal on both sides.

Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens

It’s taken no time at all for Zay Flowers to get comfortable in the NFL. The rookie has already formed a connection with quarterback Lamar Jackson and carved out a sizable role in this Baltimore offense, recording nine catches on 10 targets for 78 yards in the opener and four receptions on five targets for 62 yards last week. Through two games he’s also tacked on three rushes for an additional 15 yards while playing 81% of the team’s snaps overall, the most of any Ravens receiver.

Flowers is $5,400 on DraftKings, and right now he’s being projected for 14.3 fantasy points for Week 3. His DraftKings boom probability is 11.6% for this matchup with the Colts at home, ranking him near the top of the wide receiver pool there. On FanDuel, Flowers is priced at $6,300 and projected for 11.31 fantasy points and a 6.2% boom probability.

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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Fades for Week 3 – Player Projections Preview

Gabe Davis, Buffalo Bills

We’ll have to see how the data changes throughout the week, but as of Thursday afternoon, Gabe Davis is not projecting all that well for Week 3 against Washington.

If we look at Stokastic’s boom and bust probability ratings, Davis has a 1.0% boom probability and high 64.3 bust probability at $5,800 on DraftKings and a 0.5% boom probability and 56.5% bust probability at $6,700 on FanDuel.

After a quiet Week 1, Davis bounced back with six catches for 92 yards and a touchdown in Buffalo’s 38-10 win over Las Vegas in Week 2. Early-week NFL projections are looking better elsewhere at the wide receiver position for Week 3, though, as the Bills’ No. 2 wideout is not grading out so favorably for this Sunday’s game versus the Commanders. Buffalo enters as 6.5-point favorites on the road, with the game total at 43.5 points.

Kendrick Bourne, New England Patriots

Kendrick Bourne was heavily targeted again in Week 2 against the Dolphins but finished with only four receptions for 29 yards, that coming after a two-TD Week 1 display in a loss to the Eagles.

For Week 3 against the Jets, the seventh-year receiver is dragging a little bit in Stokastic’s NFL DFS projections with a projection of 8.68 fantasy points at $5,100 on DraftKings and 7.05 fantasy points at $5,900 on FanDuel.

With DeVante Parker returning to the fold after missing Week 1, Bourne dropped from a 91% snap count percentage in the opener to 51% in Week 2. This matchup against New York doesn’t look too appealing from a fantasy perspective either, as the over/under (36.5) is by far the lowest on the NFL schedule for Week 3.

This is another reminder to stay in the know on player news as we get closer to kickoff.

As you get your lineups locked in for all of the Week 3 slates, read through our other free content on our NFL homepage and try out our premium DFS software, including NFL Sims.

You can also watch the most informative and entertaining live shows and videos from your favorite fantasy sports analysts on our YouTube channel and chat NFL DFS strategy with the team and the rest of our sharp community every day on the Stokastic Discord!

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Editor note: Looking for the best DFS contest simulator? We have you covered. We also know of an industry-leading spot if you’re also looking for the best NFL DFS projections.

Scott Krones
Scott is a writer and editor at Stokastic and OddsShopper with a passion for DFS and sports betting. His previous stops include Better Collective, RotoGrinders and RotoWire, and his favorite team is Liverpool.

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