There are five games on the NHL DFS slate tonight. A number of heavy hitters, including Nathan MacKinnon, Nikita Kucherov and David Pastrnak, will take the ice. Four teams will play on the front end of a back-to-back: The Bruins, Stars, Islanders and Lightning. As always, Stokastic subscribers should check out the members-only Discord for any last-minute lineup and injury news to use in NHL DFS roster construction.
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NHL DFS Picks, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays
Center
Evgeni Malkin (PIT at OTT): DraftKings – $6,500 | FanDuel – $7,600
The Penguins have struggled on the defensive side of things because of injuries. Fortunately, their offense has produced enough to keep them from losing all the time. Gino and Pittsburgh’s second line continues to produce elite numbers. The trio carries a 51% Corsi and 3.7 expected goals for per 60 minutes while creating 37 shots taken per 60 minutes and over 14 high-danger chances. Malkin has multiple points in two of the last four games and has hit the shot bonus in three of them.
Ottawa has done a good job at limiting high-danger chances and suppressing scoring chances so far this year, but their goaltending has struggled. The Sens have given up the fourth-most goals over the past month. Malkin correlates with Rickard Rakell on the top power play unit, while Jason Zucker will play on the second unit. Expect Malkin and his mates to get the better of this matchup while the Senators try to minimize the damage from the Sidney Crosby line.
Tyler Seguin (DAL at SJ): DraftKings – $4,400 | FanDuel – $5,600
Keep an eye out for lineup news, as Roope Hintz could very well draw back in for tonight’s game and replace Seguin on the top line. That roster move would move Seguin to the second line alongside Jamie Benn.
Moving Seguin to the top line alongside Jason Robertson and Joe Pavelski has worked out for the Stars. Seguin has tallied a point in every game since Roope Hintz went down with an injury. Seguin has averaged 3.5 shots on goal across that four-game sample. Hintz should return tonight and retake his place on the top line, but Peter DeBoer could change things up completely and keep Seguin on the top line.
In the four games playing together, Dallas’ top line has played phenomenally: The 70-minute sample features a 63.7% Corsi, 4.63 expected goals for, 49 shots for and over 20 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes. If Seguin stays on that top line tonight, he makes for one of the best plays on the slate value-wise at just $4,400. He could also be one of the most popular plays, according to Stokastic’s Ownership Projections.
San Jose has struggled with goaltending this year. The Sharks have allowed over 3.7 goals per game, the logical outcome of surrendering plenty of high-danger scoring chances.
Winger
Nikita Kucherov (TB at VAN): DraftKings – $7,800 | FanDuel – $10,200
Kucherov was blanked on Monday against the Seattle Kraken, breaking a five-game point streak. The sniper is averaging just under four shots per game while tallying 13 points over the last ten games. Playing alongside Brayden Point and Brandon Hagel, the trio fully correlates on the top power play, and they have been lethal. Things set up perfectly for stacking them in NHL DFS lineups tonight, as the Canucks have the worst penalty kill in the league.
Vancouver’s defense ranks in the bottom five of every advanced metric for NHL DFS: 28th in Corsi, 29th in expected goals against, 28th in goals against, 26th in shots against, and dead last in high-danger scoring chances allowed. Tampa Bay gets one of the best matchups on the night. As a result, Kucherov will see plenty of chances.
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Andrew Mangiapane (CGY vs. COL): DraftKings – $3,800 | FanDuel – $5,000
Value with correlation is tough tonight because of the slate’s large size. Mangiapane projects as the third DraftKings winger priced under $4,000, which also makes him one of the top values on the slate. The winger is averaging just under three shots and seven points over his last 10 games. Playing alongside Mikael Backlund and Blake Coleman, the trio has been phenomenal. They carry some of the best metrics in the league, and getting depth matchups at home has been a recipe for success.
Colorado has dealt with injuries throughout the year to players like Gabriel Landeskog and Darren Helm, which have forced them to spread out the top-end talent. Colorado’s depth has been pretty weak, and Mangiapane will likely get positive matchups for the entire night. Mangiapane will also line up on the second power play unit alongside Mikael Backlund. Colorado has struggled on the penalty kill all year, with a 75.6% kill rate. While over the last month, Colorado ranks 30th in expected goals against, 25th in goals against, and 28th in shots against per 60 minutes while on the penalty kill.
The main issue with Mangiapane — and his linemates — is ownership. With a short slate, early Stokastic ownership projections have all three members of Calgary’s third line at just under 10% on DraftKings and 15% on FanDuel. Those numbers aren’t staggering, but playing a popular high-end stack will require getting a little different.
Defense
Victor Hedman (TB at VAN): DraftKings – $5,700 | FanDuel – $6,300
Hedman has a depressed salary on the short slate, but his upside remains immense. He slots in as the 10th-priciest FanDuel defenseman but ranks as the third-best defenseman in Stokastic’s projections. Hedman logs over 25 minutes a night and contributes in all facets of the game. Hedman has averaged over five shots and blocks per game over his last 10 outings while tallying 11 points. He is a mainstay as the top power play quarterback and gets a great matchup tonight.
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Vancouver surrenders roughly 33 shots and four goals per game. The Canucks are also allowing the third-most DraftKings points per game to defensemen. With Hedman quarterbacking the top power play unit for Tampa Bay, they will be heavily involved if the Lightning light up the lamp.
Ty Smith (PIT at OTT): DraftKings – $4,300 | FanDuel – $4,100
The Penguins suffered some massive blows on the blue line when Kris Letang and Jeff Petry went down with injuries. They are also missing Jan Rutta, which is stretching their blue line extremely thin. Their defensive metrics have dipped accordingly, but the injuries have also opened valuable playing time for guys like Ty Smith. Smith’s salary on DraftKings isn’t too appealing, but it’s acceptable on FanDuel.
Smith has seen an increase in ice time and is averaging almost 23 minutes per night. He’s also quarterbacking the coveted top power play unit. The Senators have struggled with inconsistent goaltending, and they are also allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing defensemen. The higher salary lends him to be played as an addition to a stack, but he remains a tournament-only play because of his low peripherals.
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Ottawa’s top line makes for a great NHL DFS tournament play tonight. The Stokastic top stack tool gives the Senators’ trio a massive leverage score of 11.2%. That’s because they are the highest-priced stack on DraftKings, and they do not fit with the other high-end stacks.
Ottawa’s top line has been very good for the first half of the season. They carry a 58% Corsi, 3.58 expected goals for per 60 and 39 shots for per 60, and they create over 17 high-danger chances per game. Ottawa will also benefit from playing at home, and with D.J. Smith choosing not to hard match, Ottawa’s top line will likely get plenty of chances against Pittsburgh’s depth lines.
Pittsburgh has been decimated with injuries on the blue line. They won’t have Kris Letang, Jeff Petry or Jan Rutta tonight. Over the last month, the Penguins rank 20th in Corsi, 27th in expected goals against, 26th in shots against and 28th in scoring chances allowed per 60 minutes. Their penalty kill has also struggled mightily. They rank 29th in expected goals against and 31st in shots against on the kill. Ottawa’s top line fully correlates with the top power play and makes for a great leverage stack in NHL DFS tournaments tonight.
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