There are just seven games on the NHL slate tonight, but several teams played last night and that means lineup information will be slow to trickle out through the day. Before we get to our NHL DFS picks today, Stokastic members are encouraged to check the Discord before lock for updated information.
NHL DFS Picks Today, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays
NHL DFS Picks Today: Center
Sebastian Aho (CAR at TOR): DraftKings – $7,200 | FanDuel – $8,300
As winger Andrei Svechnikov has been rounding into form after a slow start returning from his knee surgery, it has transformed the potency of Aho and the top line. With those two on the ice at 5-on-5, the team generates 17.1% more expected goals and 36.7% more actual goals per 60 minutes than when Aho is on the ice without him. It has helped Aho go on a big production streak recently with two goals and seven assists in his last three games. The effect is magnified on the power play as the top PP unit is considerably more productive with that duo together than apart, as has been the case for a few years now.
Going into Toronto isn’t an overly difficult matchup for our center, especially with Toronto playing their second game in as many nights. The Maple Leafs’ top line is giving up 2.7 expected goals against and 3.0 actual goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, both numbers being lower than the league average. On top of that, the team has given up 41 goals in 11 games since the injury to starting goalie Joseph Woll.
Aho doesn’t have elite shot or ice time rates like the expensive centers on the board tonight, and that’s keeping his fantasy point projections low. However, that is also keeping his ownership projections low as Stokastic has him under 3% on DK and 5% on FD. That makes him a target for tournaments, whether by himself or in a line stack.
Morgan Geekie (BOS vs. NJ): DraftKings – $3,800 | FanDuel – $4,400
On the topic of poor goaltending, Boston faces New Jersey tonight. On the season, the Devils have the second-worst team save percentage in the league. Things haven’t been as awful in December, but they’re still 25th in the league by save percentage this month. Even as the goaltending has improved, the team has given up at least four goals in 6/13 games in December. New Jersey also played last night so they are going to be a tired team on a back-to-back against a rested Boston side.
Geekie has been moved to the top line at even strength for Boston, and that means skating with David Pastrnak. Boston generates more shot attempts, more shots, and more expected goals with those two on the ice together at 5-on-5 than when Pastrnak doesn’t have Geekie next to him. It isn’t a huge sample yet – a little over 70 minutes – but that the offense is still consistent with Geekie is a good start. This center is also on the top power play unit and that gives him a lot of value at a cheap price.
Among centers priced under $4,000 on DK and $5,000 on FD tonight, Geekie is 5th and 7th, respectively, by fantasy point projection. It gives him moderate point-per-dollar values, but the sharp rise in his usage and role brings him and his line mates into play for tournaments.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Winger
Nikita Kucherov (TB vs. NYR): DraftKings – $9,700 | FanDuel – $10,300
Sometimes, players just have special seasons. Kucherov has seen his production decline in December when compared to November, and that decline has still seen him post 9 goals, 10 assists, and 51 shots in 12 games. He gets consistently high levels of ice time, and that high shot rate is a product of that and the fact he’s generating nearly 20% more shot attempts per minute than his prior career-high. A lot of ice time and career-best shot rates are helping Kucherov build towards what might be the first MVP season of his career.
New York played last night, and Tampa Bay didn’t, so the rest advantage is on Kucherov’s side. Beyond that, the Rangers have seen defensive issues start to plague them as the team is 29th by expected goals against per minute in December while carrying the same rank by actual goals against. Even the Rangers’ penalty kill is struggling by ranking 22nd by shots against per minute and 27th by goals per minute this month.
Kucherov is third by fantasy point projections among all wingers on either site tonight, which high but not elite. However, like Aho, it’s keeping his ownership projections in the low single digits and that is what makes him a target for tournaments tonight.
Carter Verhaeghe (FLA vs. MTL): DraftKings – $6,300 | FanDuel – $7,700
Florida played last night, but it was a home game, so this isn’t as bad of a back-to-back situation as New Jersey and New York mentioned above. Verhaeghe has been on the team’s top PP unit for their last few games and that is a big addition to our winger’s DFS profile. Montreal has been taking fewer penalties over the last month or so, but their penalty kill has still struggled by allowing the seventh-most shots and fourth-most goals per minute in December. Even as their discipline has improved, they’ve allowed nine PP goals against in 11 games because they struggle to kill the penalties they do take.
Aside from the power play, this is a good 5-on-5 matchup for Verhaeghe. This month, Montreal has allowed over one full expected goal more, and one-half actual goal more, per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 with their top line off the ice. Verhaeghe’s trio should largely avoid that matchup, so this is a positive offensive matchup across the board for the potential two-time 40-goal scorer.
Of the wingers priced under $7,000 on DK and $8,000 on FD tonight, Verhaeghe ranks fifth by fantasy point projections. He is expected to carry heavy ownership, though, because of the matchup. Tournament DFS players have a decision to make due to that high ownership, but Verhaeghe is an acceptable option in cash games.
Anthony Mantha (WAS vs. NSH): DraftKings – $3,400 | FanDuel – $4,000
Mantha has emerged as arguably the best depth scoring option that Washington has this season. He has eight goals in his last 15 games, and his 1.69 goals/60 minutes over the entire season to date ranks 12th among the NHL’s regular forwards, or the 96th percentile. Bringing up the per-minute production is important here because he’s averaged 15:12 per game in ice time over his last four games, the highest mark for any four-game stretch for Mantha this season. Mantha’s DK price is starting to creep up, but it’s still cheap enough where he doesn’t need a huge night to pay off.
Mantha was skating next to Dylan Strome last night and that is a good spot for our winger. With those two on the ice this season, Washington generates 26.9% more shots and 28.6% more expected goals than when Mantha is away from Strome. (This is one spot where late information may matter because the duo was broken up for the third period.) It is a back-to-back situation for Washington, but hosting Nashville means Mantha should largely avoid their top line and Nashville allows more goals this season with their depth on the ice rather than their top line.
Like Kucherov above, Mantha’s fantasy point projections, relative to his cost, gives him a good-not-great point-per-dollar value, but also low single-digit ownership projections. Be sure to check his slotting at warmups, but he can be used as a cheap, one-off winger for tournament lineups.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Defense
Victor Hedman (TB vs. NYR): DraftKings – $5,600 | FanDuel – $6,900
The big issue with rostering Hedman in DFS is that his peripherals lag behind high-end options like Roman Josi and Mike Matheson. That lends to a boom-bust profile but that is more relevant for cash games than tournaments. For tonight, as with Kucherov earlier, this is a good matchup at 5-on-5 and on the power play for Hedman, and that helps his offensive upside. The other boost to his profile is that Mikhail Sergachev is still injured, and in the four games with him hurt (including the game he got hurt), Hedman has averaged 26:23 in ice time. He has six assists in those four games and the positive matchup with additional ice time is what draws us in his direction.
Hedman’s lack of peripherals hurt his fantasy point projections but, as has been the theme of this article, it’s leaving his ownership projections very low as he sits under 5% on DK and 1% on FD. That level of ownership, for a player with his upside, is what makes him a tournament target.
Jordan Spence (LA vs. EDM): DraftKings – $2,700 | FanDuel – $3,700
Speaking of ice time, Spence has been getting more of it of late. His first 20 games of the season saw him skate 14:44 per night. That number has jumped to 16:12 per night over his last 11 games and while a good chunk of that was with teammate Vladislav Gavrikov injured, Spence has passed the 16-minute mark in both games since Gavrikov’s return. It seems the coaching staff liked what they saw when Spence had his role increase, and that’s good news for DFS. Spence has registered at least one shot on goal in 10 straight games, averaging over two shots per game in that span.
Of all blue liners priced under $3,000 on DK and $4,000 on FD for this slate, Spence is 3rd and 1st by fantasy point projections. There isn’t heavy ownership expected on him for either site, too, so he’s a salary-saving blue liner that is acceptable in tournaments tonight.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Goalie
Jake Allen (MTL at FLA): DraftKings – $7,000 | FanDuel – $7,000
In 12 starts this season, Allen has been pulled once. In the 11 games where he wasn’t pulled, Allen has faced an average of 36.2 shots per game and has not seen fewer than 30 shots in any single contest. Facing Florida is a matchup where Allen should see a lot of volume as the Panthers are third in the league in shots per minute this month (first over the entire season). However, Florida has struggled to finish those shots as they’re 25th by goals per minute this month, and 22nd this season. With Montreal taking fewer penalties of late, Florida struggling to finish their shots, and the Panthers on the second game of a back-to-back, this isn’t an awful matchup for Montreal’s goalie.
As expected, Allen leads Stokastic’s GoalieStats section by projected saves tonight, and is the only goalie expected to make at least 30 stops. There is always a chance he gets blown up – he did get pulled in that one start – but with the level of volume he should face, there is high upside tonight and that makes him a tournament goalie to consider.
Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
TOR1: Matthew Knies – Auston Matthews – Mitch Marner
In the section on Aho, we mentioned that this Toronto line has been struggling defensively. On the flipside, the same could be said of the Carolina top line; the team allows 36% more shots and 25% more expected goals against with the Aho-Svechnikov duo on the ice than when they’re on the bench. After a sluggish start to the season that saw this Toronto trio broken up, they’ve come alive since being reunited by generating 4.0 expected goals and 4.1 actual goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 since American Thanksgiving; that is much closer to what we should expect from this unit than their early-season struggles. Toronto is on a back-to-back, but they’ve also scored 14 goals in three games this season when on the second of their back-to-back, so the offensive upside is still there.
Per the Top Stacks tool, this Leafs line has the fourth-highest leverage projection, which means a much higher top-2 stack probability than ownership rate. There are a handful of high-end top lines on the slate tonight, but this unit has the lowest ownership projection of any line priced over $15,000 on DK.
PIT2: Reilly Smith – Evgeni Malkin – Drew O’Connor
Just one member of this Pittsburgh trio is on the top power play unit, but that’s not such a bad thing as St. Louis is giving up the fewest power plays per game to the opponent this season, and that’s meant just 19 PP goals against in 35 games. The positive for Pittsburgh’s second line is they rarely take top-line matchups at home and since firing their coach, St. Louis is giving up 24% more expected goals and 30.5% more actual goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 with their top line off the ice. Conversely, this Pittsburgh trio is averaging 3.1 expected goals and 4.0 actual goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (in an admittedly small sample).
At the other end of the leverage spectrum is Pittsburgh’s second line, as Top Stacks has them with the most negative leverage tonight on both sites. The reason to consider them is that of all lines priced under $14,500 on DK and $16,500 on FD, Malkin’s Men have double the top-2 stack probability of the next-closest line. If there is an over-owned filler line to consider tonight, this one is a strong contender.
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*Additional best NHL DFS picks today stats from Natural Stat Trick
