Sunday Night Football features two 7-8 teams trying to hang onto postseason hopes as the Minnesota Vikings host the Green Bay Packers. In this issue of Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’ll be providing our Packers-Vikings DFS picks for the Sunday Night Football Showdown slate.
Stokastic is bringing plenty of NFL DFS tools and information for all the different slates, game formats and sites. This column will provide a free analysis of the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. It includes team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks. There are loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown analysis to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Sunday Night slate, so check out these Packers-Vikings DFS picks.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Packers-Vikings DFS Picks
Green Bay Packers: 20.75 Points
Quarterback
The Stokastic NFL DFS projections have Jordan Love as the QB13 this week on both DraftKings and FanDuel, which is one spot below his rookie counterpart in this game. That makes sense with Christian Watson (hamstring) all but ruled out after missing the last three weeks and Dontayvion Wicks unlikely to play after missing practice all week with chest and ankle injuries.
The Vikings have the seventh-best passing DVOA, and they are almost as stout against the run. Since Week 3, Jake Browning (324) is the only quarterback to top 300 passing yards against the Vikings, and that was an overtime game. Back in Week 8, Love was 24-for-41 (58.5%) for 229 yards, one touchdown and one interception. He also added 34 yards on four rushing attempts.
To his credit, since that 24-10 loss, Love has six multi-touchdown efforts in the subsequent eight games, with 16 passing and one rushing and only three interceptions.
Running Back
Aaron Jones has played on half of the snaps over the last two games after missing nearly a month due to knee issues. Patrick Taylor looks to have passed AJ Dillon (thumb) in the pecking order, but since coach Matt LaFleur can’t quit him, of course Dillon had a touchdown, getting the ball on seven of his 12 snaps for a disappointing dozen yards.
Jones had his most productive game of the season, and while he did not score, he racked up 127 yards on 21 attempts in Carolina, catching one pass for another 8 yards. In the last two games combined, one with and one without Dillon, Taylor has four carries for 10 yards and three receptions for another 5.
Salaries, of course, matter and Jones is carrying a cap hit worthy of a near “bell cow” role, with Taylor providing relief on FanDuel ($6,000) and DraftKings ($1,200).
Wide Receivers
Jayden Reed (toe/chest) was out last week, but he is trending towards playing tonight; he was, however, limited in practice all week. He has a nice rapport with Love and is second on the team with 82 targets. Romeo Doubs is the most experienced wideout, which is wild to say considering he is in his second season. The fourth-round selection out of Nevada leads the team with 89 targets, though he has more than five just once in the last five games.
Bo Melton came out of nowhere last week for six targets in just his second career game. He was drafted in the seventh round last year by Seattle, though the team ended up keeping him on the practice squad. Green Bay signed Melton to their practice squad last December, and while he has hit the active roster a couple times, the last two games are the only ones where he saw the field. The former Rutgers alum turned his six targets into four receptions for 44 yards, with a rushing attempt netting another 7. He has out-snapped Samori Toure 43-7 over the last two weeks, though the latter had two targets Sunday.
Malik Heath is the other option, and his playing time is likely the safest if Reed plays. He is $1,000 more than Melton on DraftKings but still a palatable $3,400 and the better fantasy option. FanDuel has him at just $6,500, which is $500 less than Melton, making Heath the easy choice on the blue site.
Tight Ends
Tucker Kraft has stepped into the void left by fellow rookie Luke Musgrave, and he is at a neutral salary on DraftKings ($5,800). FanDuel ($7,500) missed the boat, and Kraft is a core play in all formats with his projection for 5.1 targets, 3.6 receptions and 38.3 yards. Since Musgrave went down, Kraft has played on just almost 95% of the snaps over the last five weeks.
Josiah Deguara will be on the field for 15 or so plays, but his last target was in Week 9. Ben Sims should see a similar snap share, and he has three targets in the last five games.
Defense/Special Teams
Green Bay has seven sacks over the last two weeks, but the team has just six interceptions, which is ahead of only the Tennessee Titans (4), and even though the Packers have 10 fumble recoveries, those are a fickle stat. They are facing a rookie who has not been under center since Week 9, so they should be able to cobble together a decent stat line for fantasy purposes.
Minnesota Vikings: 22.25 Points
Quarterback
Nick Mullens is back to the bench, as he has presided over the last two losses for the Vikings and threw a ghastly six interceptions, even though he threw for 714 yards in the games. Mullens replaced midseason acquisition Joshua Dobbs after the clock struck midnight on his Cinderella story with a pair of losses. So rookie Jaren Hall will be making his second start of the season. Hall suffered a concussion 11 plays into his last start and has not seen the field since.
While he is a rookie, Hall will turn 26 this spring, so the fifth-rounder should have some poise at least. He started his final two seasons at Brigham Young University, throwing 51 touchdowns against 11 interceptions and adding six rushing scores. His 22 NFL plays have resulted in 10 pass attempts, of which he completed eight for 101 yards, with four carries for 10 yards.
In a wild twist, the Packers have suspended Jaire Alexander for this game, which is a surprise considering they are in a must-win situation, and he is their best cornerback. Last week the All-Pro appointed himself as a gameday captain and went out for the coin toss in his home state of North Carolina.
After Green Bay won the toss, he nearly messed up by painting Green Bay into a corner where they would not have received either of the two mandatory kickoffs in the game. Luckily, LaFleur had already informed the officials what he wanted if the Packers got the call.
The team has said there were some other things that occurred leading up to this suspension, but dang — what a crucial spot for mental gaffes to finally catch up. Cornerback Eric Stokes (hamstring) is also out tonight.
Hall will be without his tight end, but at least he will have his star receiver available along with a decent running game. Over the last two weeks, the Packers allowed Baker Mayfield 381 yards and four scores on just 28 attempts and then last Sunday, rookie Bryce Young hung 312 yards and two touchdowns on the defense in Carolina, just missing out on the upset in a 33-30 game.
Running Back
Second-year back Ty Chandler has assumed the lead running back role, but it was a path fraught with peril to get him there. Alexander Mattison had the job out of camp, and the team then made an early-season trade for Cam Akers, as they were non-plussed by Chandler’s results. Akers played second fiddle to Mattison for six games before he was lost with a season-ending injury.
That moved Chandler back into the RB2 role, and this time he was better prepared. Finally with Mattison missing Week 15, Chandler edged him out for the top spot with 23 carries for 132 yards and a touchdown. With both backs healthy last week, it was a 65% snap share for Chandler and just a 9% share for Mattison.
Fullback C.J. Ham is usually on the field for one-third of the snaps, but he has just one carry for 7 yards and nine targets for seven catches and 25 yards. Returner and super-speedy special teamer Kene Nwangwu may get a couple of offensive snaps, but over the last three games his three carries have resulted in just 4 yards. It doesn’t help that the defense knows what is coming when he breaks the huddle.
Chandler is probably one bad play away from having Mattison step back into the primary role, and considering the veteran is $5,800 less than the young buck on DraftKings, there is some tournament appeal.
Wide Receiver
Justin Jefferson has been great over the last two games, with 13 receptions for 225 yards and a touchdown. Even though Minnesota was 5-2 while he was injured, it is hard not to think they could have run the table considering the two games they lost were by a combined 3 points. When healthy, he is one of the top-3 receivers in the league.
Rookie Jordan Addison was solid while Jefferson was out, but he has seen his targets fall off over the last three weeks. However, now that T.J. Hockenson is on the injured reserve, more volume should be earmarked for Addison. K.J. Osborn has played the second-most snaps this season among all of the wideouts, and he does have 16 targets over the last three games. Of course, with a new quarterback, who knows what to expect, but being on the field is half the battle.
Brandon Powell is a salary-relief option, though he is best left to the daredevils playing on DraftKings, where his $3,200 salary and the full-PPR scoring format are more favorable than FanDuel ($6,500).
Tight End
Johnny Mundt and Josh Oliver will be trying to fill the void left by Hockenson, which is a nearly impossible task. Oliver has been the main TE2, though he has just 23 targets from the collection of Minnesota quarterbacks on the season. Mundt will see the biggest boost in playing time, and he is cheaper across the DFS sites. This duo each has five targets over the last three games, so each should at least have a catch or two tonight.
Sunday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS Strategy
The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value. However, those taking the MME approach should remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. That also works conversely, pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with his quarterback.
Packers-Vikings DFS Picks Rankings
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Packers-Vikings
- Justin Jefferson: Captain, my Captain!
- Jaren Hall: Why not?!
- Jordan Love: Tougher matchup and missing more pass catchers than his inexperienced counterpart.
- Aaron Jones: If the game remains close, he should dominate the Green Bay offense.
- Romeo Doubs: Seems to be the only healthy option.
- Tucker Kraft: Hardly leaves the field.
- Jordan Addison: Dealing with an ankle injury, so keep tabs on updates.
- Ty Chandler: Trust is not the right word, but he has the lead role for now.
- Jayden Reed: If he were totally healthy, he would slot above Doubs. Returns punts as well.
- Malik Heath: Strong salary saver, particularly if Reed is out.
Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Packers-Vikings
- Greg Joseph: Not great from distance; 2 of 5 (40%) between 40 and 49 yards and 3 of 6 (50%) from 50-plus.
- Anders Carlson: Rough season for the rookie sixth-round selection; 4 of 7 (57%) between 40 and 49 and 3 of 5 (60%) from beyond 50 yards.
- Alexander Mattison: Waiting in the wings for redemption.
- Minnesota D/ST: Homefield advantage, and while not the most fantasy-friendly DST, the unit is good in real life.
- Johnny Mundt and Josh Oliver: “What the heck” options; it would not be a surprise for either to get half a dozen targets; both should get two or three as a baseline.
Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Packers-Vikings
- Dontayvion Wicks: Good chance he is out.
- K.J. Osborn: Salary is a heavy deterrent.
- Bo Melton: Move him above the kickers if Reed is out.
- Patrick Taylor and AJ Dillon: Taylor is far cheaper than Dillon on DraftKings and FanDuel, though neither is appealing on the blue site unless hoping for a fortuitous touchdown.
- Samori Toure: Only if Reed is out, and then just for those building 40 or more lineups.
- Josiah Deguara, Ben Sims, C.J. Ham, Kene Nwangwu, Brandon Powell and Nick Mullens: There are worse plays than this motley crew.
- Nick Muse, Lucky Jackson, Myles Gaskin and Kenyan Drake: These would be the worse plays.
Stokastic NFL DFS Tools & Tips
Looking for more NFL DFS advice? You’ve come to the right place. Sign up for our NFL DFS Premium Package for access to our scoring projections, ownership projections and our state-of-the-art NFL DFS simulation tools. If you’re a beginner, you should check out our NFL DFS quick start guide put together by one of the world’s best DFS players, Alex “Awesemo” Baker. Our Premium Package costs just $35 per week or $115 per month — or you can upgrade to our MAX package for access to post-contest sims, more lineups and VIP support for $60 per week or $199 per month.
