Sunday Night Football features the Denver Broncos — who are in the mix for a Wild Card slot with their 7-7 record — and the visiting New England Patriots — who have been eliminated from the postseason and are only playing for pride at this point. In this issue of Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’ll be providing our Patriots-Broncos DFS picks for the Sunday Night Football Showdown slate.
Stokastic is bringing plenty of NFL DFS tools and information for all the different slates, game formats and sites. This column will provide a free analysis of the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. It includes team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks. There are loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown analysis to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Sunday Night slate, so check out these Patriots-Broncos DFS picks.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Patriots-Broncos DFS Picks
New England Patriots: 14.0 Points
Quarterback
The Stokastic NFL DFS projections have Bailey Zappe as a bottom-3 quarterback on both DraftKings and FanDuel for the full Week 16 player pool, battling the likes of Trevor Siemian and Bryce Young. For what it’s worth, Mason Rudolph and Easton Stick were in the dregs as well but managed to escape “the suck” once they played their games.
In Week 13, Zappe improbably tossed a trio of touchdowns against the Steelers in Pittsburgh, but he was a mess in the games on either side of that performance. Across three starts, the Western Kentucky Hilltopper is averaging 18.3 completions on 28.0 attempts (65.4%) for 187 aerial yards. He has four touchdowns against a pair of picks while adding another 31 rushing yards on eight carries.
Jared Goff tamed the Broncos with five passing touchdowns last week, but the team put the clamps on Stick/Justin Herbert, C.J Stroud, P.J. Walker/Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Joshua Dobbs in the four other games. It has been a while since Denver faced a top-notch signal-caller, and it certainly won’t happen tonight.
It is not out of the realm of possible outcomes to see Zappe with a multi-touchdown game against a bottom-5 passing DVOA, but he could also be replaced by Mac Jones, though we know Bill Belichick is a stubborn soul.
Running Back
Rhamondre Stevenson remains out, so it will be Ezekiel Elliott delivering the holiday mail once again. It feels like a lifetime ago that he was with the Cowboys hopping into the Salvation Army Red Kettle after primetime touchdowns, but perhaps the Ghost of Christmas Past will reward his backers for old time’s sake.
The Broncos have the worst rushing DVOA in the league, and last week they were carved up like a Christmas goose by Detroit, with Jahmyr Gibbs (11/100/1) and David Montgomery (17/85/0) both getting extra helpings. The Broncos are allowing 146.9 rushing yards per game and 5.2 yards per carry, both of which are league lows.
Elliott had every running back touch in Week 14, though last week he ceded four carries to Kevin Harris. who tallied 25 yards and a tuddy. Expect an 80/20 split, as this could be one last hurrah for Elliott and he truly is the best option for the Patriots to muddy up this game.
Wide Receivers
JuJu Smith-Schuster is out, but DeVante Parker is healthy and logged a 91% snap share last week. Demario Douglas returned as well, and he was on the field for 72% of the plays, with Jalen Reagor (55%) and Tyquan Thornton (13%) rounding things out.
This position has averaged 13.7 targets in the three weeks with Zappe at the helm, so clearly volume is a concern. Fortunately, it does seem to be consolidated with Douglas and Parker, so that takes care of most of the guess work. Reagor is running wind sprints, but Zappe has looked to him for a target in each of the last three games.
Thornton had one target last week, and his five the week before were in a game missing Douglas. Ty Montgomery is lurking, though he is unlikely to get more than a handful of offensive snaps and a 50/50 probability of a target feels generous. He and Reagor are sharing kickoff return duties.
Tight Ends
Hunter Henry (knee) was able to practice in a limited fashion on Friday, but he has been ruled out for tonight. That is a shame since he led the team with nine targets last week and has 16 in the three games with Zappe at the helm. Mike Gesicki had two targets last week, and Pharaoh Brown saw one.
When Henry is healthy, Gesicki and Brown are usually on the field for half the snaps since the Patriots run a fair amount of two-tight end sets. That makes their low target share even worse, and it is clearly no guarantee that they will see much of an increase tonight with Henry on the sidelines.
Gesicki has the best chance at a multi-target game, with something around 5 fantasy points in full-PPR formats being a reasonable baseline projection. Brown has three games with two targets but just two total targets since Week 8. In each of the last two games, he caught his lone look for twin 4-yard gains.
Defense/Special Teams
New England has 11 sacks in the last four games, with three interceptions and a fumble recovering during this stretch. Denver has allowed eight sacks in this same timeframe while also suffering four interceptions.
Denver Broncos: 21.0 Points
Quarterback
Russell Wilson will have his work cut out for him, as the Broncos may have a hard time moving the ball against the best rushing DVOA in the league. New England has a bottom-10 passing unit, so this should be an interesting matchup. The Patriots have allowed just six aerial scores in their last six games, with Patrick Mahomes throwing a pair against them last week.
The yardage has not been there this season for Denver, and Wilson has topped 250 aerial yards only once (259) since Week 3. Even worse, he has thrown for less than 200 yards in six of the 11 outings. The future Hall of Famer has accounted for two touchdowns in each of the last four games, running it in himself in three of those tilts.
Running Back
Javonte Williams will have a long row to hoe tonight, though at least he has been consolidating the backfield touches when the games are close. Tonight he should see around 15 carries, along with a handful of targets, but expect it to be tough sledding. Samaje Perine tends to be the passing-down back, as he is the best in protection, but Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin are serviceable receivers.
McLaughlin will serve as the change-of-pace option, and he should be on the field for 10 or so snaps and see half a dozen opportunities. He has four carries of 20-plus yards as well as a 22-yard reception. He could luck into a big play, but his best path to relevance would be something befalling Williams or mop-up duty.
Perine will likely be on the field for 15 to 20 snaps, garnering a carry or two and a couple of targets. His route to relevance would be the Broncos playing from behind or in a quick two-minute drill.
Wide Receiver
Courtland Sutton leads the team with 85 targets, while Jerry Jeudy has 75 despite being mostly ineffective. Rookie Marvin Mims Jr. has a mere 28 targets on the season, but he has averaged nearly three looks per outing over the last five games. Sutton commands a lofty premium tonight, which makes this an interesting decision point. He needs a touchdown to pay off, as he has not topped 80 yards since the third game of the season, but he has 10 scores on the season.
Jeudy has just one end zone trip, and he has tallied more than 55 yards twice in the last 11 games, with 74 last week and 64 all the way back in Week 7. Mims at least returns kicks, so he has a longshot chance at a touchdown, but he has not had more than two catches for 25 yards in the last 10 games. The team does give him a rushing opportunity in most games, but that is not overly exciting against this defense.
Lil’Jordan Humphrey is always on the periphery, and he should get a target tonight. Last week he had a season-high four, with three catches for 16 yards and a score. These each represented season highs, so you know what sort of upside to expect tonight.
Tight End
Adam Trautman has three, three and two targets in the last three games, while Lucas Krull has three, one and one. For the season Trautman has 31 of the 50 targets to the position, and though Krull has just six, no other tight end has gotten a look since Week 10.
Defense/Special Teams
Denver has 13 sacks over the last three games, and Zappe has been taken down 11 times in his three starts. On the turnover front, he has thrown only two interceptions during this stretch, and the Broncos have only one pick in the last four games. They do lead the league with 13 fumble recoveries (which is impressive) and are third with 24 total takeaways, which rank behind the 25 collected by Jacksonville and San Francisco.
Sunday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS Strategy
The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value. However, those taking the MME approach should remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. That also works conversely, pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with his quarterback.
Patriots-Broncos DFS Picks Rankings
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Patriots-Broncos
- Ezekiel Elliott: Once more unto the breach, dear gamers. Once more …
- Russell Wilson: Will he rise to the occasion?
- Javonte Williams: Far from a walk in the park.
- Bailey Zappe: Rhymes with crappy.
- Demario Douglas and DeVante Parker: Coinflip but better than the Denver options when adjusting for DFS salaries.
- Courtland Sutton: Surprisingly salary is a factor on DraftKings and FanDuel, even with the dearth of superstars.
- Denver D/ST: Gets a bump for home field; New England is well acquainted with the frigid temperatures though.
- New England D/ST: This could be a double-DFS game.
- Wil Lutz: First season outside of the Superdome.
- Chad Ryland: Rookie grew up in Pennsylvania; college stops in Eastern Michigan and Maryland should have him prepared for weather.
Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Patriots-Broncos
- Samaje Perine: Salary and role have him securely in this slot.
- Jerry Jeudy: Lack of consistent volume and production is terrifying.
- Mike Gesicki: Boost for Henry and Smith-Schuster being out, which opens up targets.
- Jaleel McLaughlin: Just needs one good crease or missed tackle.
- Kevin Harris: If anything happens to Elliott, he is the next man up against a porous defense.
Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Patriots-Broncos
- Marvin Mims Jr.: Will this be the week or nah?
- Lucas Krull and Adam Trautman: Tight end magic on Christmas Eve!
- Pharaoh Brown: Two targets would tie his season high.
- Tyquan Thornton: Better hands than Reagor.
- Jalen Reagor: Returns kickoffs, is the minimum $200 on DraftKings; 13 targets, three receptions, 33 yards and a pair of drops for the season.
- Mac Jones: It could happen …
- Michael Burton, Brandon Johnson, Chris Manhertz, JaMycal Hasty, Kayshon Boutte and Matt Sokol: And to all a good night …
Stokastic NFL DFS Tools & Tips
Looking for more NFL DFS advice? You’ve come to the right place. Sign up for our NFL DFS Premium Package for access to our scoring projections, ownership projections and our state-of-the-art NFL DFS simulation tools. If you’re a beginner, you should check out our NFL DFS quick start guide put together by one of the world’s best DFS players, Alex “Awesemo” Baker. Our Premium Package costs just $35 per week or $115 per month — or you can upgrade to our MAX package for access to post-contest sims, more lineups and VIP support for $60 per week or $199 per month.
