With the Open Championship in the rearview, the PGA Tour now looks ahead to the 3M Open, which will be played at TPC Twin Cities (par 71, 7,431 yards, bentgrass) in Blaine, Minnesota. Since this tournament’s inception in 2019, this Arnold Palmer design has hosted every 3M Open. A year ago, Tony Finau won by three strokes at -17. This is a full field of 156 golfers, and the top 65 and ties will be advancing to the weekend following the first two rounds. Let’s look at Stokastic’s Top Golfers Tool to find the best leverage PGA DFS picks for the 3M Open.
Leverage scores compare a golfer’s ownership to their salary-weighted odds to finish in the top 6 of the tournament. It is one of many metrics in Stokastic’s tools that use the fantasy point and ownership projections to find the top PGA DFS plays each week.
PGA DFS Picks & Leverage: 2023 3M Open
TPC Twin Cities is a second-shot course that features water on 15 of the 18 holes. There are 27 water hazards in total on the grounds, and avoiding them and large numbers on scorecards is a must to contend at this track. For three years running, the winner of the 3M Open has finished the event top 5 in bogeys avoided. Also, golfers need to be in strong form with irons and as a par-4 player to thrive at TPC Twin Cities. Of the four 3M Open champions at this venue, three have finished the tournament top 5 in both in strokes gained on approach and par-4 efficiency.
Adam Hadwin
Stokastic PGA DFS Optimizer Leverage Ranks: DraftKings: 10th, FanDuel: 22nd
Do not let Hadwin missing the cut at the John Deere Classic in his last start be the reason to not attack him at the 3M Open. Regardless of missing the weekend at TPC Deere Run, Hadwin still gained on approach for the fifth start in a row. Plus, he nearly picked up his first win of the season prior to his missed cut at the John Deere, losing in a three-man playoff to Rickie Fowler at the Rocket Mortgage Classic.
This finish marked Hadwin’s eighth top-25 of the season, and his game fits TPC Twin Cities like a glove, as he ranks third in bogey avoidance, 15th in strokes gained putting and 17th in par-4 efficiency over his last 50 rounds. Hadwin has been exceptional at this course, missing no cuts in three appearances, with two of these finishes coming inside the top 6. He is an incredible high-end GPP target, with Stokastic projecting him for single-digit ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Cameron Davis
Stokastic PGA DFS Optimizer Leverage Ranks: DraftKings: 7th, FanDuel: 7th
Expect Davis to get back on track at the 3M Open after missing the cut at the Genesis Scottish Open. Given it was his first attempt at the Renaissance Club, it was not surprising to see him sent home early from Scotland. Before this, Davis was playing great golf, finishing 33rd at the Travelers Championship and 17th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic in his previous two starts. He ranks 15th in strokes gained tee to green and 29th in bogeys avoided over his last 24 rounds, and he has thrived at TPC Twin Cities, making three straight cuts and finishing top 16 twice.
Davis is a strong investment for a top-20 and is only slated to be around 5% owned on both DraftKings and FanDuel, according to Stokastic’s projections.
Chesson Hadley
Stokastic PGA DFS Optimizer Leverage Ranks: DraftKings: 8th, FanDuel: 11th
Hadley finished 10th at last year’s 3M Open – his second consecutive made cut at TPC Twin Cities – and is on the heels of a sixth at the Barracuda Championship, marking his fourth made cut in his last five starts. Even including that lone missed weekend, Hadley has shot under par in 15 of his last 18 rounds. He ranks top 25 in par-4 efficiency, strokes gained putting and bogey avoidance over his last 36 rounds and is criminally underpriced for his chances of advancing through the cut.
For both DraftKings and FanDuel, Stokastic is projecting Hadley to be roughly 1% owned.
Tano Goya
Stokastic PGA DFS Optimizer Leverage Ranks: DraftKings: 32nd, FanDuel: 44th
At near-minimum price points, Goya is a 3M Open debutant that is worth rolling the dice on in GPPs. He has been a consistent cut maker, advancing to the weekend in 12 of his last 15 starts, including four finishes inside the top 35. Goya’s irons have been solid – he has gained strokes on approach in three of his past five starts – and he has been efficient at avoiding the crooked numbers on his scorecard, ranking 27th in bogey avoidance over his last 50 rounds.
Goya should beat his cheap salaries with a made cut, and he will naturally differentiate lineups, as Stokastic projects him for essentially no ownership on DraftKings and FanDuel.
