The 2023 PGA Tour regular season concludes this week with the Wyndham Championship at Sedgefield Country Club (par 70, 7,131 yards, Bermuda Greens) in Greensboro, N.C. The Donald Ross design has been the only home of the Wyndham Championship since 2008. This is a full field of 156 golfers, and there will be a normal top 65 and ties cut following the first 36 holes. After this event, the FedEx Cup Playoffs will begin with the St. Jude Championship, where only the top 70 players in FedEx Cup points will qualify. Let’s look at Stokastic’s Top Golfers Tool to find the best leverage PGA DFS picks for the Wyndham Championship.
Leverage scores compare a golfer’s ownership to their salary-weighted odds to finish in the top 6 of the tournament. It is one of many metrics in Stokastic’s tools that use the fantasy point and ownership projections to find the top PGA DFS plays each week.
PGA DFS Picks & Leverage: 2023 Wyndham Championship
Sedgefield is a second-shot course that requires elite work with both irons and putter. For three consecutive years, the winner here has finished the week top 12 in both strokes gained on approach and strokes gained putting. Also, there are 12 par 4’s, eight of which fall between 400 and 450 yards, making this undoubtedly the most important range of hole this week. Over the last four years, three of the golfers to take home the novelty check at the Wyndham Championship have finished the tournament top 3 in efficiency on the 400- to 450-yard par 4’s of Sedgefield.
Taylor Moore
Stokastic PGA DFS Optimizer Leverage Ranks: DraftKings: 40th, FanDuel: 32nd
Moore has been lackluster as of late, missing five of his last six cuts, but that one made cut was a fourth at the Rocket Mortgage Classic that included a career-low 8-under 64 in the first round. This finish is noteworthy because the Rocket Mortgage Classic was played at Detroit Golf Club, which like Sedgefield was designed by Ross. Plus, this was not the first time Moore shined on a Ross course. He also recorded a sixth in his first attempt at Detroit Golf Club last season and, more importantly, posted a fifth in his debut at Sedgefield last year. While these are the only three times Moore has competed on a Ross course since joining the PGA Tour, he ranks first in this field in strokes gained per round at Ross venues, and by a comfortable margin.
With Stokastic projecting Moore for low ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel, he is worthwhile gamble that could be a real difference maker in GPPs.
Billy Horschel
Stokastic PGA DFS Optimizer Leverage Ranks: DraftKings: 52nd, FanDuel: 22nd
Horschel has had a disappointing season but found some serious life last week at the 3M Open, finishing 13th. He gained 7.5 total strokes at TPC Twin Cities – his second-highest output of the season – and will now look to build off this showing at Sedgefield, where Horschel has been tremendous at throughout his career. He has only missed one cut in 10 appearances here and has tallied four top-12 finishes in his last six starts at the track.
Horschel ranks third in this field in career total strokes gained at Sedgefield. Additionally, he should be highly motivated to contend, as he currently ranks 116th in FedEx Cup points. While it is highly unlikely Horschel will make it the postseason – a win is likely the only way he gets in – the 2014 FedEx Cup champion absolutely loves the playoffs and is a prideful player that should give it everything he has. Horschel’s current salaries simply do not reflect the type of upside he brings in this situation, and he needs to be a core GPP play, with Stokastic projecting him for only around 10% ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Sam Ryder
Stokastic PGA DFS Optimizer Leverage Ranks: DraftKings: 2nd, FanDuel: 1st
Ryder is 4-for-5 making cuts at Sedgefield and returns fresh off a seventh at the 3M Open last week. Highlighted by a season-low 6-under 65 during the third round, he gained strokes in every major category except around the greens at TPC Twin Cities, including over five strokes from both tee to green and on approach. If Ryder can in any way carry over this momentum as a ball striker to Sedgefield, he should add another solid finish to his Wyndham resume and beat his cheap salaries with ease.
Stokastic is projecting Ryder to be less than 3% owned on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Jason Dufner
Stokastic PGA DFS Optimizer Leverage Ranks: DraftKings: 35th, FanDuel: 32nd
At extremely low salaries, and with Stokastic projecting him for basically no ownership, Dufner is an elite punt play for the Wyndham Championship. Very quietly, he is playing great golf to close out the season, finishing 31st, 24th and 20th in his last three starts. Dufner collectively gained strokes on approach and with his flat stick during all three of these finishes, and he has impressively shot under par in all 12 of his rounds during this streak. When we compare this field’s last 12 rounds, Dufner ranks eighth in total strokes gained, which is more than Hideki Matsuyama and Russell Henley, who are both priced over $10,000 on DraftKings. Dufner, on the other hand, costs only $6,300.
In addition to the encouraging form, Dufner has made 10 of 13 cuts at Sedgefield, including five top-30 finishes. Another top-30 here is a legitimate possibility for Dufner this weekend, which would be an incredible return at his low price tags.
