Ravens-49ers DFS Picks: Lamar Jackson and Brock Purdy in a Super Bowl Preview? (December 25)

Monday Night Football features the Baltimore Ravens vs. the San Francisco 49ers, a matchup between two of the best teams in all football. In this issue of Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’ll be providing our Ravens-49ers DFS picks for the Monday Night Football Showdown slate.

Stokastic is bringing plenty of NFL DFS tools and information for all the different slates, game formats and sites. This column will provide a free analysis of the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. It includes team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks. There are loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown analysis to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Monday Night slate, so check out these Ravens-49ers DFS picks.

NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Ravens-49ers DFS Picks

Baltimore Ravens: 20.25 Points

Quarterback

The Stokastic NFL DFS projections have Lamar Jackson as a top-three quarterback on both DraftKings and FanDuel for the full Week 16 player pool.  Looking at OddsShopper, we can see that Jackson currently has the second-best odds for the NFL MVP, behind only his counterpart in tonight’s matchup.

Tyreek Hill slipped significantly after missing a game with a sprained ankle, while Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen are sliding after some lackluster performances the last two weeks.

There is more pressure on Jackson this week as rookie running back Keaton Mitchell is out with an injury, plus the loss of tight end Mark Andrews had already removed a trusted option from the mix as well. San Francisco ranks as the fourth-best defense against the pass, but they have slid down to 18th against the run. Kyler Murray ran for 49 yards on six carries last week, but Hurts had just 20 yards on seven attempts in Week 13, though he did get a rushing score.

The 49ers have allowed only three opposing quarterbacks to toss multiple touchdowns and they have allowed more than 270 passing yards just five times. Jackson ranks just 17th among quarterbacks who have played at least 13 games with 221.8 passing yards and 17 touchdowns. However, he is contributing another 52.9 per game on the ground, less than half a yard behind Justin Fields and he has added another five rushing scores.

Running Back

This is not a great matchup or salary for Gus Edwards and he is going to need to reach pay dirt to be a viable option in the single-game format. Justice Hill is back to the number two role with Keaton out and Melvin Gordon III has been elevated from the practice squad and will probably see around a dozen offensive snaps. Gordon played in Weeks 3 and 4, totalling 13 carries for 53 yards, catching all three of his targets for another 46 yards. He is the minimum $200 on DraftKings, making him an excellent punt play.

Wide Receivers

Rookie Zay Flowers is working through a foot injury, but he leads the team with 92 targets and has been a solid contributor most of the year. Veteran Odell Beckham Jr. has been working back to full health and he should be considered the WR2, though he mostly plays in passing situations, seeing the field for around half the snaps each of the two games since the bye week.

Rashod Bateman had a season-high six targets last week, with four in the preceding game. Nelson Agholor had one target last week, but five in the prior matchup and this duo is both live for a couple targets each – with a couple more up for grabs.

Tight Ends

Isaiah Likely has been solid in the absence of Andrews and he has seen six targets in each of the three games without the former All-Pro. He has scored in each of the last two weeks and has tallied 13 targets with 10 receptions and 153 yards since the bye. Charlie Kolar had his third target and second catch of the season last Sunday in Jacksonville in prime time. He can be skipped on FanDuel, but the former Iowa State Cyclone is someone to consider as an extreme punt on DraftKings, though he will be hard-pressed to top Gordon, without a touchdown.

Defense/Special Teams

Baltimore has just six sacks in the last three games, though they lead the league with 50 quarterback takedowns. San Francisco has ceded just 26 sacks, which is the third fewest in the league. On the turnover front, the Ravens are in the middle of the pack with 1.5 takeaways per game, though the 49ers have suffered a league low 12.

San Francisco 49ers: 26.75 Points

Quarterback

It is just wild that Mr. Irrelevant is currently leading the MVP odds at -250. This is akin to Kurt Warner going from a grocery clerk to a two-time MVP and of course sixth-round Tom Brady who tallied a trio of MVP trophies. Brock Purdy will be facing the second best passing DVOA, though he presides over the top passing offense in the NFL.

Only three opposing signal-callers have thrown for multiple touchdowns against Baltimore and none have reached the 300-yard milestone. Fortunately, Purdy has a quartet of talented difference makers across the backfield, tight end and receiving corps, so this should be an amazing chess match.

Running Back

Christian McCaffrey is third in the MVP odds, which of course is bonkers to have two teammates this high on the list. Since 2000 Marshall Faulk (2000), Shaun Alexander (2005), LaDainian Tomlinson (2006) and Adrian Peterson (2012) are the only position players to win the award. Faulk had 26 touchdowns and 2,189 yards from scrimmage when he won, Alexander had an NFL-record 28 touchdowns in his season, Tomlinson broke the record the next season with 31 and then Peterson returned from tearing his MCL and ACL last in the 2011 season, to recover and then run for 2,097 yards, just nine shy of the record held by Eric Dickerson at the time was absurd.

The Ravens have allowed three different running backs to tally 100-plus yards, but they have ceded just five total touchdowns to the position, three rushing and two receiving. McCaffrey is second in the league with 20 touchdowns and he is pacing the rest of the field with his 301 offensive touches and his 1,801 yards from scrimmage.

Considering he has played on 704 of 865 (81.4%) of the offensive snaps, there has been very little action for his backups. Eli Mitchell has missed the last two games with a knee injury and he was only able to participate in walkthroughs at the end of the week. If he is out, it will be second-year man Jordan Mason, who was an undrafted free agent out of Georgia Tech.

Since the Week 9 bye, non-McCaffrey running backs have have averaged about five carries per game, with only two total passing targets. This is a slim workload, though it excludes fullback Kyle Juszczyk who plays about half of the snaps, but he has just five carries for six yards and 12 targets, resulting in 10 catches for 91 yards an two tuddies.

Wide Receiver

Brandon Aiyuk leads the team with 86 targets and he typically sees between 6-to-8 each game. Four of his six touchdowns have come in the last six games, but he tends to be overshadowed by his trio of talented teammates in the red zone. Deebo Samuel is third on the team with 69 targets and he has averaged seven over the last four contests. He has multiple scores in each of his last three appearances, with five rushing and six receiving touchdowns on the season.

Now that everyone has been healthy, things are pretty slim when looking outside the core four. Jauan Jennings sees the field a fair amount, but he has nine total targets over the last four games, while Ray-Ray McCloud III and Ronnie Bell have one apiece in this timeframe.

Tight End

George Kittle has at least four targets in each of his last eight outings, with 76 on the season trailing only Aiyuk. He has 11 red zone opportunities, but he is battling both Samuel (21) and McCaffrey (72) in the passing game and of course that duo can also run them in from a variety of formations. Kittle has six touchdowns on the season and has managed three over the last six games, even in the shadow of his prolific teammates.

Charlie Woerner is the blocking tight end and while he is on the field for 20%-to-40% of the action, depending on the game-flow, he has one target this season. Ross Dwelley (ankle) and Brayden Willis have been serving as the TE3, with Dwelley getting the lone target for this duo.(a(an

Defense/Special Teams

Jackson should be good for a handful of combined sacks and turnovers. San Francisco leads the league with 25 turnovers, including 19 interceptions, with an average of just under three sacks per tilt.

Monday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS Strategy

The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value. However, those taking the MME approach should remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. That also works conversely, pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with his quarterback.

Ravens-49ers DFS Picks Rankings

Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Ravens-49ers

1. Christian McCaffrey: One of three MVP candidates in this matchup, best from a DFS perspective.
2. Lamar Jackson: Like Atlas, the world is on his shoulders.
3. Deebo Samuel: Slight edge over Purdy for the multiplier slot. Also returning kickoffs with Ray-Ray McCloud III on the injured reserve.
4. Brock Purdy: Safer utility play than Samuel, the main worry is Samuel runs one in on a flip-toss that isn’t considered a pass.
5. Isaiah Likely: He will be popular, but has a nice mix of floor and ceiling, even in this tricky matchup.
6. Melvin Gordon III: Makes everything work on DraftKings ($200), not particularly appealing on FanDuel ($7,000), with three projected touches.
7. Justin Tucker: Best kicker in the history of the game, only 1 of 5 (20%) from 50-plus, but 10 of 11 (90.9%) from 40-49 yards.
8. Brandon Aiyuk: We have a tough salary cap, Aiyuk in consideration for the multiplier-slot.
9. George Kittle: Decent floor, erratic but game-breaking upside.
10. Jake Moody: Rookie has been solid, 53 of 53 PATs and 18 of 21 (85.7%) on field goal attempts, with two misses coming from beyond 50 yards.

Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Ravens-49ers

1. Zay Flowers: Last guy in the top-10 on FanDuel, gets pushed down on DraftKings because of Gordon’s salary cap relief. Keep an eye on updates about his foot issue.
2. Odell Beckham Jr.: Solid and has a knack for the big moment, defense is not likely to overlook him however.
3. Rashod Bateman: Would vault over Beckham and above Moody if Flowers is inactive. Tough season, but looked like he had a real connection with Jackson last year.
4. San Francisco D/ST: Gets the homefield edge.
5. Baltimore D/ST: This would be reversed if the game were in front of the purple-camo clad faithful.

Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Ravens-49ers

1. Justice Hill: If Gordon were not around, he would move above the D/STs.
2. Gus Edwards: If he scores we are sad, if he doesn’t we are happy – let others roll the dice if you are building less than 25 lineups.
3. Nelson Agholor: One-trick pony, who is living off a random 2020 pandemic season where Lady Luck granted him touchdown after touchdown.
4. Jordan Mason: Essentially no red zone equity, but he did get a short one against Seattle after McCaffrey ripped off a 70 yarder. Should get a handful of carries, but could also cede work to Samuel.
5. Kyle Juszczyk: Six targets since Week 10, four receptions for 52 yards and a score. Last carry was Week 8.
6. Chris Conley: Yes, that Chris Conley, he has averaged 7.7 offensive plays over the last three weeks, zero targets.
7. Ronnie Bell: Losing snaps to Conley, did get a target last week, but didn’t get onto the field in the prior game. Now returning punts with McCloud on the injured reserve.
8. Patrick Ricard: He will be on the field as a blocker for a couple dozen plays, five targets on the season, the last was in Week 10. His last carry was in Week 15 last year.
9. Charlie Kolar: Better chance for a target than Ricard, but he will see half the playing time.
10. Tylan Wallace and Devin Duvernay: Both have been returning kicks, would not be a surprise to see one inactive in lieu of an extra lineman or defensive player this week.
11. Tyrion Davis-Price and Jeremy McNichols: One is going to be inactive, both would be if Mitchell was available.
12. Charlie Woerner and Braden Willis: Non-zero chance for a target, but just barely.

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