We have 15 games on tonight’s schedule, including one at Coors Field for which the Dodgers boast an implied run total of nearly eight runs. With this many games on the schedule, ownership is less concentrated across the board, but we’ll still need to find ways to differentiate if we’re going to trust the very popular Dodgers. Let’s dive into my MLB DFS advice for today’s action.
Looking for more MLB DFS advice? Check out our MLB articles and tools, including our industry-leading projections. We have custom-built tools to help you identify the top stacks, batters and pitchers — along with a one-of-a-kind lineup generator! You can even test how a slate could go with the new simulator tool. Sign up for our MLB DFS package for those tools and more today by clicking here.Â
MLB DFS Advice Today: Dodgers are Good Chalk (June 27)
Game of the Day: Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies
As mentioned in the lede, the Los Angeles Dodgers are the most important team on tonight’s slate. Their 7.5 implied run total is a little lower than what it was this morning, but it still leads the slate by more than 1.5 runs. They will take on Connor Seabold, who has only struck out 15.5 percent of hitters this season with a 5.64 xFIP.
The Dodgers’ active roster has a 110 wRC+ and .186 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. Seabold has allowed power to both sides of the plate this season, with a .223 ISO allowed to lefties and a .215 ISO allowed to righties.
The only hitter in the Dodgers’ projected lineup with an ISO below .167 against right-handed pitching since the start of last season is Miguel Vargas. There is a lot of variance in baseball, no matter how good a matchup may appear, but this is about as good a spot as you will see over the course of a season.
Los Angeles currently has a 22.5 percent chance of being the top-scoring stack in the Top Stacks tool. The next highest team is San Diego with a 6.3 percent chance.
MLB DFS Advice: Top Batters
Mookie Betts (LAD): $6,400 on DraftKings
Freddie Freeman (LAD): $6,200 on DraftKings
Will Smith (LAD): $6,000 on DraftKings
For more top hitters, check out our Top Batters Tool!
Mookie Betts: Betts has shortstop and outfield eligibility on DraftKings, making it even easier to fit him into lineups. Betts has a .357 wOBA and .239 ISO against right-handed pitching since the start of last season and now gets to face a below-average Connor Seabold in the best hitter’s park in baseball.
Freddie Freeman: Freeman hasn’t hit for quite as much power as Betts over the last couple of seasons, but he still has a healthy .187 ISO to go with a .398 wOBA against right-handed pitching. Seabold is mostly a three-pitch pitcher against left-handed hitters. He has thrown his fastball 58 percent of the time to left-handed hitters this season while throwing his change-up 21 percent of the time and his slider 18 percent of the time. Since the start of last season, Freeman has a .424 xwOBA and .236 xISO against right-handed fastballs, a .406 xwOBA and .229 xISO against right-handed change-ups and a .435 xwOBA and .275 xISO against right-handed sliders. There is no obvious way for Seabold to get Freeman out, as he hits his entire arsenal well.
Will Smith: It feels like cheating to just list three Dodgers here, but they project to be that much better than the rest of the slate. Smith is expensive, but he offers a high-upside bat at a generally weak position. He has produced a .352 xwOBA and .201 xISO against right-handed pitching since the start of last season. Smith has struggled against right-handed sliders, posting a .288 xwOBA and .157 xISO since the start of last season, but we can still take our chances on him here against Seabold.
MLB DFS Advice: Top Pitchers
Shohei Ohtani (LAA): $11,300 on DraftKings
Kevin Gausman (TOR): $11,000 on DraftKings
Bryan Woo (SEA): $6,900 on DraftKings
For more top pitchers, check out our Top Pitchers Tool!
Shohei Ohtani: Ohtani has the highest strikeout percentage of anyone on tonight’s slate who has spent the entire season in the Majors. The L.A. right-hander has a 32.6 percent strikeout percentage and 3.47 xFIP. He will take on the Chicago White Sox, who enter the game with a 90 wRC+ on their active roster. There are some talented hitters for the White Sox, most notably Luis Robert Jr., but it’s a weak lineup overall, and Ohtani projects as the highest-scoring pitcher on the slate.
Kevin Gausman: Gausman is similarly priced to Ohtani and has a dangerous matchup against the San Francisco Giants. San Francisco has a 119 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season, but they also have a 23.4 percent strikeout percentage, so there is some upside for Gausman. He is second to Ohtani with a 31.5 percent strikeout percentage, and his 2.93 xFIP is even better than Ohtani’s. The Giants will most likely have a lefty-heavy lineup tonight. Left-handed hitters have a .207 xISO against Gausman this season, but they have also struck out 29.2 percent of the time.
Bryan Woo: Woo is slowly getting more expensive on DraftKings, but he isn’t at a point yet where he doesn’t project as a strong value. The rookie right-hander struck out 34.3 percent of hitters at AA this season and has maintained that strikeout ability through his first four Major League starts with a 33.8 percent strikeout percentage. He projects for about a 25 to 26 percent strikeout percentage over the rest of the season, so, while we shouldn’t expect him to sustain his early pace, he is likely to remain an above-average strikeout pitcher in the big leagues. He has a tough strikeout matchup tonight as Washington’s active roster has an 18.6 percent strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching this season, but they also have a 91 wRC+ as they have been one of the least productive offenses in baseball.
Final MLB Notes for Today
Be sure to keep an eye on the weather in the Mets-Brewers game as we get closer to lock. David Peterson projects as one of the most popular pitchers on the slate but it’s entirely possible that we have rain issues in this one.
