Monday Night Football features a bicoastal battle with the Seattle Seahawks heading to New York to take on the Giants. Week 4 continues the Stokastic NFL DFS picks series, and here we’ll be providing our Seahawks-Giants DFS picks for the Monday Night Football Showdown slate.
Stokastic is bringing plenty of NFL DFS tools and information for all the different slates, game formats and sites. This column will provide a free analysis of the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. It includes team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks. There are loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown analysis to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Monday Night slate, so check out these Seahawks-Giants DFS picks.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Seahawks-Giants DFS Picks
Seattle Seahawks: 24.25 Points
Quarterback
The Stokastic NFL DFS projections have Geno Smith as the QB15 on both DraftKings and FanDuel for the full Week 4 player pool. The main knock against the football vagabond is that, while he can leave the pocket when he has to, he does not run with much consistency and rarely in the red zone. Last year he had 68 carries for 366 yards, or 5.4 yards per carry, with just one touchdown.
On the flipside, Smith is very accurate and led the league with a 69.8% completion rate last season. In his 24 games for Seattle, he has a 69.5% completion rate and 39 passing touchdowns. The Giants have the third-worst passing DVOA, though they have allowed just three passing scores and Brock Purdy (310) was the only quarterback to throw for over 230 against them thus far. In his last two games, Smith averaged 314 yards and threw a trio of touchdowns.
Running Back
The Seahawks still lean on the run under long-time head coach Pete Carroll’s offensive philosophy, which bodes well for Kenneth Walker II, as New York has allowed at least 70 rushing yards to the lead ball carrier in the first three games and has the eighth-worst rushing DVOA. In three games, Walker already has 10 targets, which is a pace that will easily surpass his 35 from last year. Against Carolina, he brought in all three targets for 59 yards, and while we should not expect him to be a voluminous receiver, it is good that the team is trying to get him in space with the ball so he can work his big-play magic.
Rookie Zach Charbonnet has secured the RB2 role and also is seeing work on the passing downs. He will still cede some opportunities in that role to veteran DeeJay Dallas, who has more experience in pass protection, but it should have the youngster on the field for around 40% of the snaps more often than not. Last week Charbonnet had nine carries for 46 yards, though about half of that came in the fourth quarter during mop-up duty. These are the only three running backs to see time in the offense so far.
Wide Receivers
For what it is worth, the Stokastic NFL DFS projections currently have DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett each within 1 fantasy point of each other. This should be no surprise since this duo has near identical snap, route and target rates. The DFS sites also have the pair with similar salaries. Metcalf has the slight advantage with more after-the-catch upside, but Lockett is no slouch on downfield routes either.
Rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba does have 14 targets, though he has failed to top 13 yards in two of the three matchups. Though he has not put everything together just yet, it is pretty clear to even casual observers that this kid has talent. Undrafted rookie Jake Bobo has been on the field for 60 snaps, including 31 last week, and his targets have gone from zero to one and then two last week. He is a dart-throw option at the $200 DraftKings minimum salary. Another undrafted rookie, Cody Thompson from Toledo, has played 10 snaps but has not been targeted to date.
Tight Ends
Seattle has been using two tight ends on close to one-third of their offensive plays. Will Dissly (shoulder) was out last week and was limited in practice heading into the weekend. He has played on close to 40% of the snaps when healthy, but his opportunities were split between Colby Parkinson and Noah Fant in the matchup against the Panthers, with deep reserve Brady Russell, yet another undrafted rookie, getting his first seven offensive snaps of his career.
Last year this position had a collective 34% target share, though it has dropped to 22% through the first three games. If Dissly is out again, then Fant and Parkinson are worthy of punt-play consideration on FanDuel at $7,000 and $6,000. If Dissly is active, he and Parkinson will be the preferred options on DraftKings at $400 and $800, respectively.
Defense/Special Teams
New York has already allowed a dozen sacks this season, which should help a Seattle pass rush that has only five sacks in total. The Giants have thrown four interceptions and lost one fumble, while the Seahawks have just three takeaways. Tackle Andrew Thomas is out, which hurts the offensive line depth for the G-Men.
New York Giants: 22.75 Points
Quarterback
Daniel Jones has been the epitome of boom or bust this season. In Week 2 he cruised to a 300-yard passing day with two scores while adding another 59 yards and a touchdown on the ground in Arizona. The other two games, well, he barely cracked double-digit fantasy points combined in efforts against Dallas and then in San Francisco, while the Giants were outscored 70-12.
Seattle has allowed at least 323 passing yards in each of the first three games, with Andy Dalton hanging 361 yards and two tuddies on the Seahawks last weekend. They have the No. 28 passing DVOA and the No. 7 rushing DVOA, so clearly teams are taking to the air. That bodes well for a vintage “Danny Dimes” performance that could make him invaluable to the optimal lineup tonight.
Running Back
Saquon Barkley is doubtful with a high-ankle sprain and not expected to play. That means another round of Matt Breida and Gary Brightwell sharing the workload. Last week Breida played on 82% of the snaps, and Brightwell was on the field for the other nine (18%). In a unique twist, both had four carries and three targets, which means Brightwell saw the ball on 77% of the plays he was in for. This was a rough 30-12 in San Francisco, so there is a much better chance tonight that Breida will get more opportunities. Something in the range of 10 or so carries and a handful of targets is a realistic expectation, though that is what we thought last week as well. Rookie Eric Gray did not see the field for any offensive plays.
Wide Receiver
This is a crowded position, but at least there are three games from which to draw analysis. Darius Slayton (67%, 82%, 84%) and Isaiah Hodgins (60%, 75%, 66%) are the two players with the most time on the field. Then former Indianapolis Colt Parris Campbell (67% 66% 42%) comes in as the slot receiver with the next-most plays. Slayton has 17 targets, Campbell 16 and Hodgins only nine.
Wan’Dale Robinson (ACL surgery) saw his first action of the season, and he got five targets on just 11 snaps. Veteran Sterling Shepard took the biggest hit, dropping from 14 to 10 and then just two snaps last week. Rookie Jalin Hyatt is getting action on around 30% of the snaps, and his targets have been one, two, and zero. However, in Week 2, he caught both for 89 yards as the key downfield threat.
Robinson is the preferred option on both DraftKings ($3,000) and FanDuel ($6.500), as he is likely to get looks when he is on the field in his limited fashion. Then it is probably Slayton, though at some point he is going to be crowded out as his teammates catch up to his one advantage of having more time in the New York system with Jones. After that let personal preference and salary cap considerations help guide your decisions.
Tight End
Darren Waller leads the team with 20 targets, 12 receptions and 132 yards. The Giants traded for Waller this offseason for a third-round pick. Clearly, he is the main option in the passing game and, even throughout his time with the Raiders, was more of a giant receiver than he ever was a tight end. Daniel Bellinger is the main blocking tight end, though he is a capable receiver, as we saw last year when he was pressed into duty as the TE1 in his rookie campaign. However, there are just too many other options, and as such, he has just two targets this year after averaging just over three per appearance last season.
Defense/Special Teams
The Giants are the only team in the league without a takeaway after the Raiders intercepted Justin Herbert on Sunday. Seattle has just one turnover, an interception, and the Seahawks have allowed just five sacks and New York has recorded only two.
Monday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS Strategy
The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value. However, those taking the MME approach should remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. That also works conversely, pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with his quarterback.
Seahawks-Giants DFS Picks Rankings
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Seahawks-Giants
- Daniel Jones: This is a get-right spot and a chance to rack up the fantasy goodness.
- Kenneth Walker II: Narrowly edges out his quarterback, but he is also the most expensive player on both DraftKings and FanDuel, so he will need something approaching 100 yards and a touchdown just to break even.
- Darren Waller: Reasonable salary, strong workload.
- Geno Smith: Second-best median fantasy point projection on both sites.
- DK Metcalf/Tyler Lockett: Coinflip.
- Matt Breida: Still scary to think about how he was on the field four times as much as Brightwell but had the same seven offensive opportunities.
- Graham Gano: 16 of 20 from 50-plus in his last 37 games; just five attempts this year and only four PATs; should get opportunities tonight.
- Jason Myers: Leads the league with 11 attempts heading into this week; missed his only attempt from beyond 50 yards but nailed all six last season.
- Gary Brightwell: Consider last week a baseline, with readily attainable upside of 10 opportunities.
- Darius Slayton: So much competition from his teammates.
Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Seahawks-Giants
- Wan’Dale Robinson: If we knew he was going to exceed half a dozen targets, he would easily flip spots with Slayton.
- Parris Campbell: Another player who could see opportunities erode as Robinson continues to recover from his knee injury and Hyatt gets more experience; at that point Campbell sort of becomes redundant with Waller, operating in the same part of the field.
- Zach Charbonnet: Intriguing skillset and has the edge over Walker if Seattle is trailing.
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba: He is going to pop off for a big game at some point this month.
- Isaiah Hodgins: So much competition from his teammates, though he looked pretty good down the stretch last year after being released by Buffalo and picked up by the injury-ravaged Giants.
Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Seahawks-Giants
- Seattle D/ST: Not overly exciting, but at least they have sack upside against Danny Dimes; would be better if they were not on the road.
- New York D/ST: Just not a good unit, but we are in “a chip and a chair” territory.
- Noah Fant, Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson: If Dissly (shoulder) is out again, the other two will move above the defenses.
- Jalin Hyatt: Rookie is worthy of his own line.
- Daniel Bellinger, Jake Bobo and DeeJay Dallas: Can be sprinkled in around lineup 100; collective over/under is about 3.5 touches — good luck guessing which one succeeds. Dallas is the main kick returner for Seattle.
- Sterling Shepard and Eric Gray: Hard pass; Gray is the main kick returner for New York.
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