Another fun week of NFL action awaits, and there are plenty of big-money NFL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel to get excited about. In this preview, we will take a look at the top NFL DFS tight end picks and fades, based on early-week player projections at Stokastic. We will put up an update on Sunday morning overviewing how the data has changed.
Through the first three weeks, here are the top 10 in target share at tight end:
Zach Ertz (23.8%), Sam LaPorta (23.5%), Travis Kelce (22.3%), George Kittle (20.9%), T.J. Hockenson (20.7%), Mark Andrews (20.5%), Darren Waller (20.1%), Evan Engram (18.9%), Jake Ferguson (18.8%), Kyle Pitts (18.6%)
And the early top 10 in snap count percentage:
Cade Otton (96%), Dallas Goedert (94%), Tyler Higbee (93%), Hunter Henry (85%), T.J. Hockenson (84%), Cole Kmet (83%), Luke Musgrave (83%), George Kittle (82%), Sam LaPorta (80%), Adam Trautman/Tyler Conklin/Mark Andrews (80%)
Now, on to Week 4!
Top NFL DFS Tight End Picks & Fades for Week 4
At tight end, the Vikings’ T.J. Hockenson is in the top spot in projected fantasy points on DraftKings and FanDuel in Week 4’s road tilt with Carolina, followed by George Kittle and Mark Andrews.
Let’s look through Stokastic’s NFL DFS tight end data for this week’s main slate of games.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks & Fades for Week 4 – Sunday Update
NFL DFS projections have been updated for Week 4. At tight end, Pat Freiermuth is in the top spot in DraftKings boom probability at $3,400, with Tyler Higbee (if active), Chig Okonkwo, Gerald Everett and George Kittle rounding out the top five for the main slate. T.J. Hockenson, Kittle, Higbee and Mark Andrews are projected for the most raw fantasy points regardless of salary.
NFL DFS Tight End Picks | Week 4 DraftKings & FanDuel Projections
Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens
With no Travis Kelce on the main slate, we will need to look elsewhere if spending up at the tight end position. Mark Andrews could be an interesting choice on the road against the Browns at his salaries of $5,400 on DraftKings and $6,700 on FanDuel.
There are fresh injury concerns in Baltimore, with Rashod Bateman (hamstring) and Odell Beckham (ankle) both banged up and missing practice this week. If either or both were to miss out, that could lead to some extra opportunities for the reliable tight end, who played 82% of the snaps in Week 3 after being out there 79% of the snaps in his season debut. Heading into Week 4, Andrews has recorded a healthy 20.5% target share.
UPDATE: Bateman and Beckham Jr. have now been ruled out for Week 4.
Rashod Bateman (hamstring), Odell Beckham Jr. (ankle) listed out for Week 4.
— Underdog NFL (@Underdog__NFL) September 29, 2023
Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams
Though he has yet to find the end zone, Tyler Higbee has been steady to start the year. He’s coming off his best performance of 2023 in which he had five catches for 71 yards against the Bengals, and now he sets his sights on the Colts in Week 4.
Priced at $4,000 on DraftKings and $5,100 on FanDuel, Higbee has a 10.3% target share while playing 93% of the team’s snaps over the first few weeks. Ahead of Sunday versus Indianapolis, the 30-year-old has an 8.4% boom probability on DraftKings and an 8.3% boom probability on FanDuel, the third highest of all tight ends on the main slate.
UPDATE: Higbee is now being listed as questionable for Sunday’s game.
Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers
At time of writing, Pat Freiermuth is grading out as a top point-per-dollar play in Stokastic’s NFL DFS projections against the Texans. Freiermuth has logged a 68% snap share and 9.4% target share in 2023, with Kenny Pickett and company entering the weekend hopeful of keeping the momentum going after back-to-back wins over the Browns and Raiders.
From a pure point-per-dollar projections perspective, no one is beating out the Steelers tight end for Week 4 on DraftKings. For now, he owns a 3.12 rating in Value and is topping the tight end pool in that regard while also having a 16.7% boom probability at $3,400 on DK.
NFL DFS Tight End Fade | Week 4 DraftKings & FanDuel Projections
Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears
Right now it’s hard to put faith in any of the pass catchers on the Bears. This team has been dreadful to start the season and is coming off an embarrassing 41-10 loss at Kansas City in Week 3. Justin Fields struggled and Cole Kmet was not able to do much of anything either, finishing with two catches for 22 yards.
Kmet has been seeing the field plenty, and his target share has been respectable as well to start 2023. With that being said, early NFL DFS projections are not favoring him for this week’s matchup against Denver, as he’s currently projected for 7.03 fantasy points at a salary of $4,000 on DraftKings and 5.64 fantasy points at $4,900 on FanDuel.
Be sure to browse through the full tight end data to see what other NFL DFS situations you may want to target and avoid for NFL Week 4. We should also remember that accurate player projections are just one piece of the NFL DFS puzzle and that other factors like projected ownership, roster construction and game theory should be considered when building lineups.
As another general reminder, make sure to keep up to date with the player news, as even a minor injury status change could have a big effect on the numbers for the main slate. Stokastic will keep updating NFL DFS player projections as needed through Sunday.
More Stokastic NFL DFS Week 4 Tools 🏈
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NFL Boom/Bust Probability
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