Friday is the final weekday of the regular season and it is being celebrated with a 13-game featured slate locking at 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. As always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help in identifying today’s MLB DFS top stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. Look to Carlos Rodon and Nick Pivetta as tonight’s primary pitching recommendations, along with the Blue Jays at home against baseball nomad RHP Aaron Civale and the Yankees in Kansas City against the bringer of home runs, RHP Jordan Lyles..
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Sept. 29
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: LHP Carlos Rodon at Kansas City Royals — 4.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $7,100 | FanDuel $8,700 | Yahoo $34
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool has LHP Carlos Rodon rating out as the best fantasy point per dollar hurler on both DraftKings and Yahoo. FanDuel is a slightly different story, but the 30-year-old lefty warrants a look after producing quality starts in each of his last two outings and that milestone is handsomely rewarded on the blue site.
In his five September starts, Rodon had a hiccup against Detroit of all teams, as the Motor City Kitties clawed their way to seven runs in 3.2 innings. The four other starts were solid, with three or fewer earned runs and 27 strikeouts in the 23 combined innings, with just three home runs.
We are at that point in the season where figuring out motivation is a little tricky for the teams that cannot improve their playoff position and for those who have been eliminated for a while now. For instance, it has been a little surprising to see Atlanta and Los Angeles continue to roll with the regulars, though perhaps the hope is they help propel Ronald Acuna Jr. or Mookie Betts into the National League MVP Award.
Neither the Royals or Yankees are playing for anything more than pride, but there have not been many shenanigans from either squad over the last fortnight after being relegated to an early offseason. Rodon should see around 90-to-95 pitches if he is performing well and it is always good to finish the season strong, particularly after having struggled in the early going.
The projected lineup for the Royals does have five hitters who have a 25% or higher strikeout rate against southpaws this season, which bodes well for Rodon, who has a 27.4% strikeout rate over the last 30 days and he has a long track record as a strikeout artist.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Nick Pivetta vs. Baltimore Orioles — 4.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $7,600 | FanDuel $8,800 | Yahoo $39
Last night the Baltimore Orioles clinched the best record in the American League, as well as the AL East Division title. They have a three game lead on the Tampa Bay Rays, with three to go – but hold the head-to-head tiebreaker, so this is a lock. That means we could see a hangover lineup, particularly after the raucous clubhouse festivities last night, which also were celebrating the O’s agreeing to stay in Camden Yards for another 30 years.
Boston has three days left in the season, but it seems safe to consider RHP Nick Pivetta for a workload of 90 or so pitches or six innings, whichever comes first. That lines up with his last four starts, so unless he is struggling, expect the veteran to get a good matchup against the reserves and understudies tonight.
Pivetta was moved to the bullpen in August, which he was not particularly thrilled about, but when is a starting pitcher ever happy about a reduced workload. In his last three starts, including one in Toronto and two at home against the visiting Yankees and White Sox, the 30-year-old notched 23 strikeouts in 18.2 innings, ceding only one longball and five total earned runs.
This is a very forgiving salary on the main MLB DFS sites, particularly if Baltimore pours out a watered-down lineup as is a baseball tradition after securing a playoff berth.
Main Slate Other Pitching Thoughts:
Writing this article so early in the morning, it is hard to know all of the motivations we are going to see around first pitch tonight. Here are some things to consider, which should help avoid missteps or take advantage of an unexpectedly good situation.
Yusei Kikuchi vs. Tampa Bay Rays — 3.5 implied runs: Baltimore clinching, means Tampa Bay is locked into the top wild card slot. They have so many dinged up players, it would be a surprise for them to run out their “regular” lineup. Toronto is battling with Houston and Seattle for the final two wild card berths. The Blue Jays have a one game lead on the Astros and a two game lead on the Mariners. Things are far from secure, so expect their normal offense. There could be a quick hook for Kikuchi, but if he is methodically working through the order, he should be able to wrap up the fifth inning and potential be in line for the win. For a quick recap Brandon Lowe, Jose Siri and Luke Raley are all on the injured list, Wander Franco is suspended indefinitely and both Randy Arozarena and Yandy Diaz are working through minor injuries.
John Means vs. Boston Red Sox — 3.9 implied runs: Expect a tune-up start for Means and while he is behind Kyle Bradish and rookie Grayson Rodriguez, he pitches at a similar level as Dean Kremer and there is no way that the Orioles want to screw up this position of strength heading into what could be a World Series run. Something in the 75-to-80 pitch range and four or five innings seems likely for Means who has made only three appearances this year after returning from Tommy John surgery.
Nathan Eovaldi, Bryan Woo, J.P. France and Zac Gallen: Each pair is squaring off and their respective teams are fighting to punch a postseason ticket. That means going against good offenses and managers likely to turn to someone else at the first sign of trouble. Thanks but no thanks, until around lineup 50 or so.
Lance Lynn at San Francisco Giants: Dodgers are locked in and looking at a likely playoff rotation of Clayton Kershaw, rookie Bobby Miller and then probably Lynn, with Ryan Pepiot as a long-relief piggyback option for a combined five or six innings. Literally no reason to push Lynn at all. Also pour one out for Dustin May, Walker Buehler, Tony Gonsolin and the P.O.S. nature of J.U. and T.B.
Keaton Winn vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: The rookie is probably capped around four or five innings, but if it is the reserves and understudies for the Dodgers, he is in consideration as an SP2 on the featured slate and certainly on the late-slate.
Kyle Hendricks at Milwaukee Brewers: Brew Crew has clinched, Cubs need to keep winning. Hendricks flirting with a quality start is very much in play, particularly if Christian Yelich, Willy Adames and William Contreras get the night off.
Dylan Cease vs. San Diego Padres: The Friars need to win out and have significant help, they likely will be eliminated tonight, even if they win. This is an earlier game at 7:40 p.m. ET, so we will see the lineup. Either way this is a “both-sideser” as Cease has struggled mightily at times this season, but he has been solid in four September starts with a 3.04 ERA and 31 strikeouts in 23.2 frames. Over his last 18.1 innings, he has allowed just four earned runs.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: New York Yankees at RHP Jordan Lyles — 5.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
Somehow RHP Jordan Lyles went into Houston and blanked the Astros for five innings. It was only the second time this season where the venerable veteran did not allow a run. To his credit, the 32-year-old has been eating innings like he had been withheld nourishment between outings and then was given a free pass to the Old Country Buffet. In his 30 starts he has suffered a 6.24 ERA along with 38 round-trippers. He also leads the league in home runs allowed over the last three seasons.
Aaron Judge is just three home runs away from 40, which is impressive considering he has only played in 104 games this season. Giancarlo Stanton is at 24, so he is closer to a milestone than Judge, but it would not be a shock for both to get there this weekend in Kansas City.
This has been a lost season for former two-time batting champion DJ LeMahieu, but he should be leading off and is basically free on DraftKings ($3,300) and FanDuel ($2,700). Austin Wells has been in the heart of the order and he is a great way to knock out the catcher requirements on DraftKings and Yahoo, plus Gleyber Tores and rookie Anthony Volpe can be used to round out full-stacks.
The Yankees are a fine counter-strategy against the Minnesota Twins and their implied 6.9 team total in Coors Field. If Atlanta is rolling out the usual suspects, they are worthy of tournament consideration in a home matchup against the Nationals’ RHP Trevor Williams. Just be wary of pinch-hitting risk for the top half of the order. This is another game that starts shortly after lock, so we will have ample time to know who will bein the lineup.
Main Slate Primary Target: Toronto Blue Jays vs. RHP Aaron Civale — 4.2 implied runs
Toronto is a strong option in the Stokastic Top Stacks tool, as the Blue Jays host RHP Aaron Civale. The former Cleveland Guardian had is last start skipped, due to illness, though maybe manager Kevin Cash was sick of looking at his September stat line of four starts, 18.1 innings, with seven walks and a 7.85 ERA. In a wild twist, Civale has seen his strikeout rate increase dramatically since coming over to Tampa Bay and in this same stretch, he has 30, yes THIRTY whiffs.
This feels like a tune-up start as the Rays really do need Civale for the playoffs. Keep in mind since the season opener, they have lost Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen and Shane McClanahan. That leaves Tyler Glasnow and Zach Eflin as the likely playoff starters in the Wild Card round with either Civale or Taj Bradley getting the third if needed, while the other along with Zack Littell work as multi-inning relievers.
Back to tonight, Toronto needs to keep winning and we should see their best lineup take the field. Brandon Belt is back, so that means there is a choice to be made between him and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. on DraftKings and Yahoo where they are only first-base eligible. FanDuel makes it easy to roster both with the utility slot.
Bo Bichette, George Springer and begrudgingly Cavan Biggio as the trio to target for full-stacks. From the bottom of the order, Kevin Kiermaier in the ultimate “Remember Me?!” spot, Matt Chapman and Dalton Varsho are fine salary savers, and of course differentiation options, but this is a loaded player pool tonight with 26-teams in action.
Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
Giancarlo Stanton was mentioned above as a strong DFS option and whether or not he make the cut for you in that format, he is an intriguing option in the sports wagering market for his total home run prop. The True Odds feature on OddsShopper shows that Stanton has +308 “true odds” of hitting one into the cheap seats, and the +360 odds currently available are indicative of a line that is inefficient almost 11%.
Stanton has a 24% probability of hitting a home run tonight, which is impressive. In his last 700 plate appearances against same-handed pitching, Stanton has a robust .238 ISO. Lyles as struggled against everyone this season, and his .239 ISO against 379 same-handed batters is just dismal.
Final Thoughts for Friday, September 29 | MLB DFS Picks
In addition to various team motivations tonight, there are also significant weather concerns in New York where the Marlins are clinging to slim postseason hopes that have been sabotaged by the inept #LOLMets grounds keeping crew. Give a once-over to the forecast closer to lock, but it looks like most games outside of the Big Apple look to be avoiding postponement risks.
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