The UFC is back on pay-per-view after several lower tiered cards over the last month. UFC 289 is headlined by Amanda Nunes vs. Irene Aldana. They are joined in the co-main event by Charles Oliveira and Beneil Dariush. But before the star power that caps off the evening are several great UFC DFS picks on the preliminary card. There are plenty of key matchups to examine to find the strengths and weaknesses of each fighter, and to unleash the power of Stokastic’s UFC DFS projections.
UFC 289 DFS Picks for Full Amanda Nunes vs. Irene Aldana Card
Salaries from DraftKings. FanDuel UFC DFS fantasy point and ownership projections available at Stokastic.com
Mike Malott ($8,800)
Mike Malott takes on Adam Fugitt as a -210 favorite. Overall, this fight projects for the best pace on the entire slate. Malott has a 9-1-1 record in his career, and he is 2-0 in the UFC. His most recent win comes over Yohan Lainesse. Fugitt is also coming off a win, defeating Yusaku Konoshita in February. Fugitt has a 9-3 record and is 1-1 in the UFC. This fight looks like it will be an absolute banger.
It is early in Malott and Fugitt’s careers, but both fighters bring an all-action style. Fugitt averages 5.40 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 5.90 himself. On the mat, Fugitt averages 4.76 takedowns per bout. Malott looks like a willing dance partner, landing 4.49 significant strikes per minute and 1.91 takedowns per bout.
The most important point is that both fighters are pure finishers. Malott has only been out of the first round once and Fugitt has seen the judges just twice in his twelve professional fights. The Stokastic projections give this fight the second-best projected pace on the entire card.
With Malott’s ability to finish, he could offer significant leverage off the other expensive fighters like Amanda Nunes, Dan Ige and Miranda Maverick. His $8,800 price tag makes Malott the second-best value score on this slate.
Diana Belbita ($8,000)
Diana Belbita takes on Maria Oliveira in the early prelims as a -115 favorite. Belbita enters this fight with a 1-3 record in the UFC. She has not fought since February of 2022 when she dropped a unanimous decision to Gloria de Paula. Likewise, Maria Oliveira sits at 1-3 in the UFC after losing her most recent fight last December to Vanessa Demopoulos via unanimous decision. However, do not let the recent losses scare you. This fight comes in with the top projected pace on the entire card.
Oliveira looks somewhat limited aside from her striking. She lands 5.27 significant strikes per minute, but she absorbs 5.35 herself. She also struggles with defensive grappling, evidenced by her 47% takedown defense. Belbita looks more than willing to exchange on the feet, averaging 6.43 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 6.18. She also lands 0.63 takedowns per bout and should have the advantage on the mat. Overall, Belbita pushes the pace more than Oliveira, which could help her earn rounds in a close fight. This slate is short on intriguing underdogs, so Belbita’s price stands out for UFC DFS lineups.
Charles Oliveira ($7,600)
One of the long underdogs that really pops is in this fight. The co-main event features a banger between former champion Charles Oliveira and up and coming contender Beneil Dariush. Oliveira holds a 33-9 record and defended his title multiple times in a year span. However, he lost his belt to Islam Makhachev last October. On the other side, Dariush boasts an eight-fight winning streak. He most recently defeated Mateusz Gamrot via unanimous decision in October. This fight should be all fireworks.
Both fighters have well-rounded skillsets. Justin Gaethje even described how badly Oliveira hurt him on the feet. Overall, Oliveira lands 3.81 significant strikes per minute and averages 1.95 takedowns per bout. Dariush has almost identical output, landing 3.81 significant strikes per minute and averaging 1.95 takedowns per bout.
Charles Oliveira has only seen the judges’ scorecards four times in his 42 professional fights. Dariush has been to decision ten times in 26 fights, including his last three. However, both fighters have displayed questionable chins. Dariush has been submitted once and knocked out three times. Oliveira has been knocked out and submitted four times apiece.
With such a close fight here, Oliveira’s experience against the top of the division could be the difference. The fact that this slate lacks strong underdogs also gives in an edge for UFC DFS in what should be one of the better fights this year.
