UFC DFS is about leverage. There might be one or several fighters that are great plays, but you’ll need to find lower owned spots to rise to the top of the charts, while also limiting lineup duplication. Stokastic’s MMA DFS ownership projections are a great way to find less popular players, and the Top Fighters tool can will help you identify which fighters have a better shot to be in the winning lineup relative to their ownership rates. Let’s take a look at the Top Fighters tool to see which UFC DFS picks are standing out on Saturday’s card.
UFC DFS Top Fighters: Dustin Poirier-Justin Gaethje
*The salaries below are from DraftKings. For top FanDuel UFC fight Night DFS picks, check out Stokastic’s MMA fantasy point and ownership projections available at Stokastic.
Derrick Lewis, $7,700
It’s surprising to think that one of the UFC’s most famous heavyweight fighters is getting overlooked, but that appears to be the case according to the early UFC DFS ownership projections. Derrick Lewis has a low win probability relative to his $7,700 salary, but he makes up for that with knockout power. Despite winning 32.7% of the time in this spot against Marcos Rogerio de Lima, a Lewis victory comes via TKO 28% of the time. In addition to his strong Inside the Distance line, Lewis’ first round knockout outs are coming in between +275 and +365 at various outlets. He might be overpriced from a win equity perspective, but not for UFC DFS upside.
Lewis is especially viable because of his ownership, as well as his opponents. Rogerio de Lima is currently projected to be 34.9% owned. That number isn’t egregious, especially considering there are several fighters with strong top-6 odds being rostered at that clip. However, it’s twice that of Lewis’ ownership of 11%. If that holds, Lewis will offer significant leverage. He currently has a 17% chance of being a top 6 scorer on Saturday’s UFC DFS slate and 19.4% chance of getting over 100 fantasy points. That could be necessary on a 12-fight slate.
Keep an eye on Lewis’ ownership throughout the weak. The field is likely to catch on to these dynamics to some degree. Plus, Lewis is simply one of the bigger names in the sport which could cause the public to click his name more frequently.
Kevin Holland, $8,400
Kevin Holland vs. Michael Chiesa is expected to be a banger. It’s also likely to be one of the most owned fights on the UFC 291 DFS slate. There’s a lot of attention on both sides, but the numbers are showing that there still isn’t enough going to Holland. When it comes to top 6 probability, there isn’t much separating Holland, the 7th ranked fighter from the first. Holland has a 32.3% chance of being an overall top 6 scorer. To put that in perspective, Dustin Poirier is at the top of those odds with just a 41% shot and there are eleven fighters with top 6 scorer odds between 28% and 41%.
That’s a lot of parity to sift through, and the field isn’t doing so efficiently. Holland is the one fighter out of that group who has a higher chance of being a top scorer relative to his ownership. He is expected to be owned at a 29% rate. The number may getting pulled down by the attention being given to other fighters in his price range like Poirier ($8,300, 47% owned) and Rogerio de Lima ($8,500, 36% owned). Those two are strong plays, but don’t overlook the potential ownership discount on Kevin Holland.
Stephen Thompson, $8,800
There’s fantasy point upside all over this UFC DFS slate. One of the few fighters without huge upside potential is Stephen Thompson. The UFC DFS projections are bearish on Thompson’s shot to be a top play which is in line with his weak fight prop lines. However, the field has caught on to this as well, and people may be sleeping on his chances to outperform his expectation.
Thompson is a solid favorite who should defeat his opponent, Michel Pereira about 58% of the time. Given his prop lines, Thompson can probably only expected to score a knockout 23% of the time, which is in less than half of his wins. Likewise, the Thompson-Perera fight is projected to have a slower pace than most.
The key is the ownership on these fighters. Thompson is pulling just 17% ownership, but he lands in the top 6 scorers 20% of the time. He is expected to score over 100 fantasy points 23.9% of the time. The $8,800 salary means that his optimal percentages will be plenty lower than his top 6 and over 100 probabilities. However, that doesn’t justify the 3% gap between those rates and Thompson’s ownership. 17% is inefficient, plus there is a small bonus that he is getting less steam than his underdog opponent. Michel Pereira is expected to be rostered at a 25% clip.
Stokastic’s Top Fighters tool has several other solid leverage spots, in addition to fight paces, overall projections and length. These go hand-in-hand with our UFC DFS ownership projections and other MMA DFS picks to help you make the best UFC DFS picks for your DraftKings and FanDuel lineups.Â
