Winning large field GPPs requires leverage. The best UFC DFS players roster fighters that are undrowned relative to their chances of being in the optimal lineup. Stokastic’s MMA DFS ownership projections are one way to get started, but the Top Fighters tool can add another dimension to your process. The tool compares a fighter’s chances to have one of the top-6 fantasy scores– plus their shot of scoring over 100 fantasy points– to their ownership. Let’s take a look at the Top Fighters tool to find top leverage plays for Saturday’s UFC Fight Night DFS slate.
UFC DFS Top Fighters: Tom Aspinall-Marcin Tybura
*The salaries below are from DraftKings. For top FanDuel UFC fight Night DFS picks, check out Stokastic’s MMA fantasy point and ownership projections available at Stokastic.
Bruna Brasil, $8,600
Nothing is ever certain in UFC DFS, or any type of Daily Fantasy Sports. But one thing you can count on is that the current UFC DFS ownership projections indicate that the $8k price range on DraftKings is going criminally under owned. Tom Aspinall’s 51% ownership projection at $9,700 is driving much more ownership to the $7k fighters which is causing some of the $8k to get overlooked.
The highest leverage spot in that group for UFC DFS is Bruna Brasil. Nobody loves rostering low-level women’s MMA fighters, and for good reason. Brasil’s is a slight favorite over Shauna Bannon, and she has a 23.5% chance of knocking out Bannon according to current Vegas odds. There are plenty of unknowns in this fight, especially on Bannon’s side, who has just five fights under her belt. However, the unknowns could just bring more volatility. It’s something to watch out for as a UFC DFS pick.
Most importantly, is Brasil’s ownership, which is currently coming in at just 18%. Compare that to a 33.4% shot to score over 100 DraftKings points and 26.3% shot to be an overall top-6 scorer on the slate and you’ve got a great leverage spot. If Brasil notches over 100 fantasy points at her price your lineups could be in business given that there aren’t a ton of elite underdogs. You’ll still need a lot to happen, but this is one spot you don’t want to overlook on Saturday’s UFC DFS slate.
Joel Alvarez, $9,000
There’s a similar story to be told for Joel Alvarez. However, we know a little bit more about what we’ll see from him and his opponent, Marc Diakiese. The pace of this fight is expected to be a bit slower, and they may be suppressing the field’s love for Alvarez. It shouldn’t. There are bigger names in the upper price ranges, and Alvarez is still getting 21% ownership, but that simply isn’t enough.
Alvarez has a 52% chance to knockout Diakiese and he should score pretty well anytime he accomplishes that feat. His top-6% is 29.3% and he has a 37.8% chance to score over 100 DraftKings points. He’s getting expensive, so you’ll want to favor that first metric a bit more than in Brasil’s case. The higher you get in price the more you’ll need to do better than just 100 points. Nevertheless, he stands to be in the winning lineup a lot more often than he’s being owned, making Alvarez a fighter to prioritize in DFS if this ownership holds.
Jafel Filho, $8,300
Jafel Filho and Daniel Barez are set to kickoff Saturday’s card. There’s a lot to like about Barez as a fighter, but there’s plenty to like in Filho, as well. The most important thing are his ownership and top scorer odds. Filho is the odd many out in the bottom of the $8k range since so many UFC DFS lineups stand to use $7k fighters in order to reach for the big names. That’s okay, because Filho constructions should be rostered less given that he currently projects for just 11% ownership.
Filho has an 18% chance of being a Top-6 scoring fighter and a 24.3% chance to notch over 100 points. The latter would be a huge score at $8,300. A lot of the outcome for Saturday’s optimal lineup will depend on how well underdogs do, but in the event that they perform poorly it could really lift the value of the $8,000 fighters. That will happen, with Filho in the optimal, a lot more than the 11% of the time he’s currently being rostered.
Stokastic’s Top Fighters tool has several other solid leverage spots, in addition to fight paces, overall projections and length. These go hand-in-hand with our UFC DFS ownership projections and other MMA DFS picks to help you make the best UFC DFS picks for your DraftKings and FanDuel lineups.Â
