The UFC returns to Las Vegas for a Fight Night card, headlined by Marvin Vettori vs. Jared Cannonier. They are joined in the co-main event by Arman Tsarukyan and Joaquim Silva. But before the star power that caps off the evening, there are several great UFC DFS picks on the preliminary card, which we will cover below to find value with the help of Stokastic’s UFC DFS projections.
UFC Fight Night DFS Picks for Marvin Vettori-Jared Cannonier
Salaries from DraftKings. FanDuel UFC DFS fantasy point and ownership projections available at Stokastic.
Christian Duncan ($8,600)
Christian Duncan enters this fight with a perfect 8-0 record. He most recently won his UFC debut on March 18 against Dusko Todorovic after Todorovic suffered a knee injury. On the other side, Armen Petrosyan has an 8-2 professional record. He sits at 2-1 in the UFC, with an additional win on Dana White’s Contender Series. Most recently, Petrosyan defeated A.J. Dobson via decision last October. As it stands, Duncan is a -150 favorite over Petrosyan.
Duncan is fairly green, with limited UFC experience. From what he has shown, Duncan looks like a pure power striker; six of his eight career wins came by knockout. However, he can also be low volume at times, making him reliant on a finish. With that said, he has proven himself as a lethal finisher.
What is certain is Petrosyan is going to push the pace. He averaged 5.99 significant strikes per minute and has a solid kickboxing background. Petrosyan’s Achilles heel has been his porous 25% takedown defense. However, he has shown the ability to work back to his feet, and Duncan does not look like a serious takedown threat to begin with.
All this is to say that these fighting styles point to a high-volume striking affair. Petrosyan also has six wins by knockout, which makes this fight one of the more likely to feature a finish. As it stands, Stokastic’s MMA projections give this fight the fourth-best pace on the slate. In particular, Duncan has a 69% chance of winning and a 39% chance of ending this fight early.
Ronnie Lawrence ($8,700)
Looking to the second fight of the night, Ronnie Lawrence is a -190 favorite in his bout against Dan Argueta. Lawrence most recently lost to Saidyokub Kakhramonov by decision, putting his official record at 8-2. On the other side, Argueta sits at 1-1 in the UFC, defeating Nick Aguirre by decision in January. Despite the limited UFC experience of these fighters, this bout has the top-projected pace on the entire slate.
Lawrence is a pure chain wrestler. He averages 7.03 takedowns per bout and 77% takedown accuracy. Argueta averages 2.5 takedowns per bout himself and 55% takedown accuracy. Interestingly, neither fighter defends takedowns well; Argueta has 55% takedown defense, and Lawrence’s is 47%.
When this fight inevitably hits the ground, Lawrence does not offer much of a submission threat. He has never earned a submission or been submitted in his life. Argueta does have four submission wins, but those all came against lower-level competition on the regional scene.
With both fighters looking to chain wrestle, this should be a high-scoring bout. Lawrence’s experience should be enough to get the victory here.
Denys Bondar ($7,900)
For a slate with 14 fights, this card is a little short on highly projected underdogs. Denys Bondar is the one exception after the odds flipped in his favor. Right now, Bondar is a -125 favorite over Carlos Hernandez. Bondar is 16-4 overall but 0-1 in the UFC. He lost to Malcolm Gordon in his UFC debut after an elbow injury. On the other side, Hernandez is 8-2 overall and 2-1 in the UFC. He lost his most recent bout to Allan Nascimento via submission in January.
Bondar is a ground specialist. While his first fight was short-lived, he immediately shot takedowns against Gordon. A capable submission artist, 10 of Bondar’s victories have come via submission. This could spell trouble for Hernandez, who was submitted his last time out and has questionable takedown defense, coming in at 66%.
Hernandez looks well rounded, but his striking stands out more than his ground game. He averages 4.93 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.12. He has yet to earn a knockout in his career, but he does have four submission victories.
Regardless of where this fight takes place, it has the second-highest-projected pace on the entire slate. With Bondar appearing to have the edge on the ground and a wrestling advantage, he deserves strong consideration as an underdog here.
