Week 17 Thursday Night Football brings a unique situation, as Dallas has clinched at least a Wild Card spot and still has the possibility of gaining the top playoff berth in the NFC. On the flipside, the Titans playoff hopes come down to their Week 18 matchup against the Jaguars in Jacksonville in a loser-goes-home game.
Waltzing into NFL Week 17 Thursday Night Football, Stokastic is bringing plenty of NFL DFS tools and information for all of the different slates, game formats and sites.
This column will provide a free analysis of the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. It includes team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks. There is loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown analysis to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Week 17 Thursday Night Football slate featuring the Dallas Cowboys at Tennessee Titans.
NFL DFS Picks: Week 17 TNF | Cowboys-Titans
Be careful tonight, as it sounds like Tennessee could rest half a dozen players in preparation for their Week 18 winner-take-all tilt against Jacksonville. Tonight’s game has no bearing on the playoff picture for the Titans, hence the dramatic spread approaching two touchdowns. In turn, Dallas may be able to take their foot off the gas and rest some of their dinged-up offensive players in the second half.
Dallas Cowboys: 26.0 Points
Quarterback
The Stokastic Projections have Dak Prescott as the QB14 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, though that is less about his talent and more about the odd game scenario that could have the Titans swaddling most of their key players in bubble wrap as they get ready for next week.
Prescott should be able to sleepwalk his way to 200 passing yards and a couple scores. Though this is not a “must win” game for the Cowboys, they can still win out and have a chance at the top record in the NFC. That makes for a reasonable floor for Prescott, but fantasy upside is questionable and will depend entirely on the score of the game.
Running Back
Tony Pollard was bestowed Pro Bowl honors for the first time this season, and he is just 12 yards shy of the 1,000-rushing-yard milestone while averaging the ninth-most rushing yards per game in the league. Considering he is dealing with a thigh injury and did not practice all week, it would not be a surprise for him to be inactive.
Update: Pollard has been ruled out.
Ezekiel Elliott is more than capable of carrying the mail tonight, and if Pollard is out, he has a strong chance at 100 combined yards. However, he too is likely to be watching the game from the sidelines if Dallas can control the game. That means a ceiling of 20 touches.
Malik Davis is likely to be the beneficiary of this game and the backfield custodian down the stretch. The undrafted free agent out of Florida is a decent runner, and he can hold his own as a receiver.
Wide Receiver
CeeDee Lamb has also earned Pro Bowl honors for his second consecutive season. Dallas tied Kansas City with seven players named to the initial roster. In addition to Pollard and Lamb, offensive guard Zack Martin, defensive end Demarcus Lawrence, linebacker Micah Parsons, cornerback Trevon Diggs and return specialist KaVontae Turpin received this honor.
Lamb can easily pop off for a fantasy relevant score in limited action, so he is still a strong play in what is shaping up to be a game filled with suppositions. Noah Brown and Michael Gallup round out the three-wideout sets, and they are likely to be on the field longer than Lamb.
Keep an eye on what shakes out for this roster once the inactives are announced tonight. Recently signed veteran T.Y. Hilton played a dozen snaps last week and could get more action tonight, and we could see third-round selection Jalen Tolbert active for the first time in weeks in what has been a disappointing rookie campaign. If Tolbert is inactive once again, then James Washington or Simi Fehoko could be in the mix to round things out. Keep in mind that return man KaVontae Turpin also has seen time on offense, so we could see just four other active wideouts.
Tight End
Dalton Schultz is the cream of the crop at this position, though Dallas has generally had four active tight ends for the last 10 games with each seeing action. Schultz has dominated the targets, but Jake Ferguson and Peyton Hendershot have each popped up in the box score.
It would be a surprise for Schultz to play much more than half of the snaps if the game flow follows the predicted path, which makes Ferguson and Hendershot viable tournament options. Sean McKeon would also be on the field, but he has not seen a target in the last six weeks (63 offensive plays).
Defense/Special Teams
Dallas could really rack up the fantasy goodness against a shorthanded Tennessee squad rolling out a rookie quarterback and a backup running back.
Tennessee Titans: 13.5 Points
Quarterback
Malik Willis looks wildly overmatched, even for a rookie quarterback. It is clear that he typically does not make it beyond his first read, though he has not done a lot yet with his legs. In his three starts, he has 20 carries for 95 yards and a touchdown, which came last week in the loss 19-14 to Houston. The passing has been an adventure to say the least, with 99 yards being the highwater mark, also coming last week when he was 14 of 23 and threw a pair of interceptions. Yikes!
Update: Malik Willis has been benched, and Josh Dobbs is reportedly set to start.
Running Back
Derrick Henry (hip) is on track to sit this game in order to be ready for the season finale, which, of course, is for all the marbles. Dontrell Hilliard (neck) missed last week, and his status is uncertain for tonight. That leaves a pair of rookies in fourth-round selection Hassan Haskins and undrafted Julius Chestnut. Double Yikes!
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Wide Receiver
Veteran Robert Woods has been the most productive receiver in the three starts by Willis, though he has just seven receptions for 56 yards. Rookie Treylon Burks, veteran Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and journeyman Chris Conley will round things out for Tennessee. Tonight a fun bet to make with friends — though are they really your friends if they let you watch this game? — is to make a bet on which Titan will become the first pass catcher to top 50 yards in a game with Willis under center.
Tight End
Austin Hooper and Chigoziem Okonkwo have the best chance of catching the eye of Dobbs, but outside of panicked throws or hot routes, it is hard to project more than half a dozen combined targets for this duo.
Defense/Special Teams
Head coach Mike Vrabel is being cagey about the availability of most of his defenders, and there is a good chance we are seeing the equivalent of a preseason game defense take the field tonight.
Thursday Night Football Cowboys-Titans DFS Single-Game Strategy
The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups, and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value. However, those taking the MME approach should remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. That also works conversely, pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with his quarterback.
Week 17 Thursday Night Football Cowboys-Titans DFS Rankings
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks For Cowboys-Titans
- CeeDee Lamb: Can score from anywhere on the field, and he is in the mix for the best raw point total, even in semi-limited action.
- Dak Prescott: Ideal path for the Cowboys tonight is to put up a couple quick scores and then turn to the running game.
- Ezekiel Elliott:Â Elliott would have been the lean even if Pollard were active tonight.
- Hassan Haskins: Salary on DraftKings ($3,000) and FanDuel ($6,000) indicative of a third-string running back.
Malik Willis: What have we got to lose? He is one of two starting quarterbacks in the player pool tonight.- Brett Maher: Dallas should have plenty of trips into Tennessee territory.
Dallas D/ST: Willis has suffered 11 sacks across his three starts, including four last weekend.- Noah Brown and Michael Gallup: Should pick up the slack if Lamb gets an easy night; also, both are likely to top any of the Titan receivers.
- Robert Woods: Maybe he lucks his way into a broken play.
- Dalton Schultz: Underrated key to the Dallas offense; one of the first off the field in a blowout — could get a touchdown prior to that, which is key.
Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks For Cowboys-Titans
- Malik Davis: With Pollard inactive, this is the appropriate slot to rank Davis, who is at the minimum salary on DraftKings ($200) and FanDuel ($5,500).
- Julius Chestnut: Should get around a dozen touches; most will be carries into a waiting defense.
- Randy Bullock: How often will Tennessee cross midfield? No field goal attempts in the last three games; just three attempts in the last six combined.
Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks For Cowboys-Titans
- Treylon Burks: Would be at the top of the middle section if Ryan Tannehill were under center.
- Austin Hooper and Chigoziem Okonkwo: Tight ends are the best friends of rookie quarterbacks.
- Tennessee D/ST: At least they will be on the field a lot.
- Nick Westbrook-Ikhine: Over/under of 3.5 targets, half of which will be hurried throws.
- Jake Ferguson and Peyton Hendershot: Playing for a touchdown and mop-up duty.
- Chris Conley and T.Y. Hilton: Wild card options on the bottom of the target tree for their respective teams.
- Geoff Swaim and Sean McKeon: Understudies for the backup tight ends; projecting for 1.5 combine targets.
- KaVontae Turpin: Pro Bowl kick returner; could get a few offensive snaps.
- Racey McMath: Name alone is worthy of his own line.
- Jalen Tolbert, James Washington, Kevin Rader, Jonathan Ward, Emmitt Smith and Eddie George: If we lose to these guys, so be it. Tonight would be a great time to start in on those holiday thank you cards and dismantling decorations — to free up Sunday afternoon for the real NFL action!
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