Neil Orfield's NFL DFS Showdown Strategy: Smith-Schuster a Great Play For Raiders vs. Chiefs MNF (October 10)

For nearly a year now, I’ve been hosting the High Stakes podcast for Stokastic, interviewing DFS pros on a range of topics. There have been a lot of recurring themes on the show, but the most relevant for this article: DFS pros love NFL DFS Showdown.

That’s because a lot of casual NFL fans enter the Showdown fray as a way to have some action on island games. As a result, DraftKings and FanDuel offer enormous contests with generous prize pools. The contests become more difficult to win, too, when there are hundreds of thousands of entrants, but with a large portion of the new players being casual, the increase in difficulty pales in comparison to the increase in prize pools. It’s a tradeoff DFS pros will gladly make.

My goal with these Showdown articles — which I’ll be writing for each Thursday Night Football and Monday Night Football NFL DFS slate this season — is to help you attack the largest-field DraftKings GPP like a pro. There are three main components to discuss when it comes to Showdown, and I’ll break them down accordingly: Projection, Correlation and Differentiation.

Before reading this piece, you may find it helpful to read my evergreen piece about how to attack NFL Showdown GPPs more generally: https://www.stokastic.com/nfl/draftkings-showdown-simplified-tips-tricks-making-big-money-nfl-dfs-island-games-2022/

Week 5 NFL DFS Showdown: Raiders vs. Chiefs MNF

Projection

The goal in DFS is to make the lineup that puts up the most points and a natural starting point is looking at individual players who are likely to put up high scores or high point-per-dollar scores. Some pros run simulations or create their own projections to achieve this. Many others, like myself, rely on the Stokastic projections and tools to determine which players should be core pieces of our lineups. I primarily look at the base projections and the “Top Showdown Plays” Tool, which publishes results of 10,000 advanced simulations run by the Stokastic team.

Studs

These are simply the top projected players on the slate. I’d recommend having at least three of these players in just about every lineup you make tonight, either as captain or in a flex spot.

Patrick Mahomes ($12,000) is the most expensive player on the slate and has the highest projection by a wide margin.
Davante Adams ($11,400) is the second-most expensive player on the slate and has the second-highest projection.
Travis Kelce ($10,8000) is the third-most expensive player on the slate and has the third-highest projection.
Derek Carr ($10,200) is the fourth-most expensive player on the slate and has the fourth-highest projection. Carr, Kelce, and Adams make a clear second tier, and projections among the three may flip throughout the day.
Josh Jacobs ($8,800) is the fifth-most expensive player on the slate and has the fifth-highest projection.
JuJu Smith-Schuster ($6,600) has the sixth-highest projection on the slate and comes at a discount. Smith-Schuster has not been a productive player this season but has been targeted 27 times through four weeks and will have spike weeks this season. He was also dealing with hamstring tightness on Friday and thus comes with a bit of extra risk.
Hunter Renfrow ($5,800) has the seventh-highest projection on the slate. Renfrow returns after a two-week absence, but he was targeted a healthy 16 total times in the first two weeks of the season.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($7,400) carried the ball a season-high 19 times in Week 4 and has the eighth-highest projection on the slate.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($5,200) has been targeted between four and seven times each game this season and has the ninth-highest projection on the slate.
Darren Waller ($7,200) has been targeted at least five times each game this season. He has the 10th-highest projection on the slate.

Point-Per-Dollar Plays

These are just a few players who will be featured throughout my lineups due to their high projected points per dollar. At the same time, because I’ll typically have at least three studs in each lineup, the top points-per-dollar plays are often players I’ll be pivoting away from in some spots in favor of players who project a bit worse but will also garner lower ownership. I’m also excluding any player with a projection below three fantasy points from this list.

Noah Gray ($600) played 57% of Chiefs snaps in Week 4, and he has been targeted eight times this season on 58 routes run. He also rushed the ball in for a goal line touchdown in Week 4.
Jerick McKinnon ($3,000) has 17 carries and eight targets through four games.
Mecole Hardman ($4,600) has run the fourth-most routes and has the fifth-most targets on the Chiefs through four weeks, with 13 targets on 91 routes run.
Mack Hollins ($5,000) is third on the Raiders with 22 targets and second in routes run at 160 through four games.
As usual, kickers and defenses are in play as solid point-per-dollar options, with both kickers projecting solidly ahead of the defenses on this slate.

Correlation

In NFL DFS, correlations are endless, both positive and negative. Some are obvious — QBs have positive correlation with the WRs on their team. Some need a bit more research — how do kickers fare when a team’s backup running back exceeds his projection? Some correlations I like in this game:

Mahomes at captain with at least one Chiefs pass catcher in the flex. Mahomes runs enough that he could have a spike rushing week, and thus it is conceivable that he could be the optimal captain with just one Chiefs pass catcher in the flex. Due to scoring dynamics– the pass catcher scoring more than the quarterback on each passing play–more often than not I’d prefer to have multiple Chiefs pass catchers in the flex if I have Mahomes at captain. If Mahomes is too concentrated in throwing to just one pass catcher, it is likely that the pass catcher will outscore him.
Carr at captain with at least two Raiders pass catchers in the flex. Carr runs even less than Mahomes. Most likely if he’s the optimal captain, at least two Raiders pass catchers will be in the flex.
Mahomes in the flex with at least one Chiefs pass catcher either in the flex or at captain.
Carr in the flex with at least one Raiders pass catcher either in the flex or at captain.

Note: This section is about correlations, not player suggestions. These are recommendations for correlations if you have either QB in your lineup, not necessarily suggestions that they’re the first place you should go.

Differentiation

Making highly projected lineups with smart correlations will separate you from the lowest level Showdown players, but there are many very smart casual players as well. Differentiation is the last step to separating pros from Joes.

In just about any DFS GPP, finding low-owned gems is key because lower ownership reduces the field of lineups you’re competing against when the player has a 99th-percentile outcome. Taking it to the extreme, just as a thought exercise, let’s say that Jacobs scores 100 fantasy points tonight. You’re not just going to need him; you’ll need him in the captain spot (150 fantasy points). If 20,000 lineups in your contest have Jacobs in the captain spot, you’ve essentially reduced the field of lineups you’re competing with to 20,000. If only 200 lineups have Jacobs at captain? Now we’re talking.

On NFL Showdown slates there is an additional factor for large-field GPPs. We don’t just want to find seldomly used players; we want to find seldomly used LINEUPS. Why? Well, I’ll give you two examples from last year:

On Sept. 20, 2021, DraftKings had a Milly Maker for the Packers vs. Lions tilt, but the top lineup was duplicated 231 times. Rather than winning a million dollars, the users who entered those 231 lineups had to split the top 231 prizes, for just a bit over $6,000 each. That’s despite having everything go their way, which requires an extreme amount of luck.
On Oct. 11, 2021, we saw the other end of the spectrum: user rcoho1984 played a unique lineup in the Ravens vs. Colts Milly Maker, taking home not just a million dollars but a ticket to the Tournament of Champions.

If you’re going to win — which takes a lot of luck, regardless of how well your lineup projects — I’d suggest making it count. I’m not necessarily concerned with making an entirely unique lineup like rcoho1984 did every single time, but I aim to be a lot closer to their unique lineup than those that were duplicated 231 times.

Some Easy Tricks

Low-owned players. Yup, even if you’re using other tricks to get unique, it’s still a good idea to play a few players in some lineups who won’t be getting much ownership. Some low-owned players to consider:

Jody Fortson ($400) has been targeted just three times through four games. He has also scored two touchdowns with those targets. He’s a boom-bust player, but a single touchdown could pay off his price tag.
Foster Moreau ($800) missed Week 4 with a knee injury but returned to practice this week. Assuming he plays, he should have a real role in the offense and maybe a couple opportunities to score fantasy points. Through three games played, Moreau has been targeted seven times on 44 routes run. He also played at least 50% of Raiders snaps in both weeks two and three.
Justin Watson ($1,000) played 18% of Chiefs snaps in Week 4 and has maxed out at 25%. He has been targeted just five times on 28 routes run. Still, at this price tag, it may take just one splash play to be optimal at low ownership.
Skyy Moore ($2,400) played a season-high 22 snaps in Week 4. He is a dynamic playmaker, and if the Chiefs start to involve him more, he could put up fantasy points in a hurry.
Isiah Pacheco ($4,800) is clearly too expensive for his role in the Chiefs offense. He played just 17 snaps in Week 4, but he did carry the ball 11 times. He is also averaging five yards per carry so far this year, and clearly has the skill to pay off this salary, with upside if the Chiefs further expand his role.
Michael Burton ($200) has carried the ball twice and been targeted once through four games. He is unlikely to be a big factor for the Chiefs. But given the Chiefs’ propensity to surprise us at the goal line, Burton is the preferred option among dart throw $200 players.

Embrace lineups missing some correlation pieces or even with some negative correlation. Generally, highly correlated lineups will be over-owned, whereas the field will avoid negative correlation at all costs. If you want to read my reasoning, check out the evergreen piece I linked near the top of this page. In some of my lineups, I like to see the following:

Quarterback against opposing Defense.
Pass Catcher at captain without including the QB at flex.
Multiple Running Backs from the same team in a lineup.

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Leave salary on the table. This is the easiest way to lower your duplicates. Casual players assume that if they have salary left over, they should upgrade. The problem with this approach is that it almost inevitably leads to highly duplicated lineups. How much salary should you leave on the table? That’s up to you. If it’s less than $600 and you haven’t gotten extremely unique with player selections and weird correlations, it’s likely you’ll have to split any winnings with many other entries.

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Author

Neil Orfield

Neil Orfield has been playing DFS regularly since 2013, but his success really started taking off in 2019 when he had a six figure payday with a hand built NFL lineup. The next day, he signed up for a Stokastic+ subscription with FantasyCruncher. Since then he has won an NFL milly and added six figure wins in XFL, MLB, and NBA. He has recently excelled at NFL Showdown, with many five- and six-figure wins since 2021.