For each of the featured games, typically Sunday Night Football, Monday Night Football and Thursday Night Football slates, we will be providing free analysis for the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. This will include team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks for today. There are loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown picks to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Week 6 Monday Night Football slate featuring the Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Week 6 Monday Night Football
Buffalo does not have any injuries of note heading into Monday Night Football. Quite a few players are dinged up for Tennessee, though they should get Julio Jones back this week. Chester Rogers (groin), Jeremy McNichols (ankle) and Khari Blasingame (shoulder) are all questionable, which would impact the depth for the skill positions. A.J. Brown was downgraded to questionable with an illness.
Buffalo Bills: 29.75
Quarterback
Buffalo looked good on Monday Night Football, besting the Chiefs in Kansas City on their way to a 4-1 record. Tonight their four-game winning streak is on the line in their second prime-time road matchup, this time in Nashville against the 3-2 Titans. Josh Allen has been outstanding this season, and while he is “only” averaging 274 yards passing per game, he has 12 touchdowns and only two interceptions while being sacked once per game. Additionally, he has rushed for 35-plus yards in all but one game and has another two touchdowns. Tennessee is bottom five in DVOA against both the pass and the run.
Running Back
Devin Singletary and Zack Moss are the bane of NFL DFS gamers everywhere. Just when it seems one has leaned in front, the other manages to surge ahead. Last week Moss saw action on 74% of the snaps after two straight weeks at 56%. Singletary had been holding firm at 43% and 44%, but he was relegated to just 26% of the snaps, which even slipped behind Reggie Gilliam (39%) for the first time this season. This is a treacherous situation, though DraftKings is making it interesting, with Moss at $7,000 and Singletary at $4,600. FanDuel is offering only a $1,500 discount, so finding the extra salary cap room for Moss makes more sense there.
Wide Receiver
Stefon Diggs had a season-low five targets, two receptions and 69 yards last week. His time will come, and despite the disappointing season, he is still averaging a tick shy of double-digit targets each week. Cole Beasley had only two targets for the second straight week, though he is likely to get back on track and still seems to have the edge over Emmanuel Sanders due to his familiarity with Allen. While the game log crew will be looking to Sanders, the DraftKings discount of $3,200 for Beasley makes it worth taking the savings and not looking back. FanDuel also has a significant salary difference, with Sanders at $10,000 and Beasley a more palatable $7,500. So far Gabriel Davis has been relegated to running wind sprints, seeing just one target in each of the last three games.
Tight End
Dawson Knox scored for a fourth straight game, and he has five touchdowns on the season. Clearly Allen is looking for him, as that gives him touchdowns in six of his last eight games dating back to the playoffs last year. Though Knox is seeing 4.8 targets per week, his touchdowns are unlikely to maintain this rate. Tommy Sweeney is the only other tight end to see targets, and he has a whopping three.
Defense/Special Teams
Buffalo has the best defense in the league, at the top of both the rushing and passing DVOA charts. They are fifth with 14 sacks while leading the NFL with three takeaways per game and allowing only 12.8 points per game. Though they have a reputation for running the ball, Tennessee leads the league in sacks allowed, with four per game and seven total turnovers.
Tennessee Titans: 23.75
Quarterback
Ryan Tannehill continues to be efficient, and there is a chance he will finally have his full complement of receivers on the field together for the first time in weeks. This is a tough matchup, though coach Mike Vrabel will likely employ a game plan that uses controlled passes and the ground game. This should set up the occasional mid- to long-range pass, giving Tannehill upside if he can catch Buffalo off guard. Tannehill has only six touchdowns while averaging just over 250 yards passing.
Tennessee is running on 49.2% of their game-flow-neutral opportunities, which is the fifth-highest rate in the league and in line with last season. Tannehill should get 35 to 40 passing attempts if Buffalo is able to get out to a lead, though Vrabel is hoping there will be fewer than 30 pass plays in his perfect world.
Running Back
Derrick Henry is in the middle of another dominating stretch of performances, and he leads the NFL with 128 yards rushing per game. For perspective, that is 23 more than Nick Chubb, who is the only other player averaging 100 yards per game, and it is 41 more yards than third-place Ezekiel Elliott. Through five games the Bills have not allowed any running back more than 45 yards rushing, and they have held the opposition without a touchdown on the ground. This should be a fascinating strength vs. strength battle, which is rare in today’s pass-happy NFL. Henry usually plays around 70-75% of the snaps, with Jeremy McNichols picking up the rest of the action, though he is usually just a placeholder, getting only seven carries and 23 targets. Henry is averaging three targets per game, and it is likely he will be on the field regardless of the game flow.
Wide Receiver
A.J. Brown has been dealing with a hamstring issue, and the Titans have said they will manage his workload for the next month. Sunday he was downgraded to questionable with an illness, which could further impact his effectiveness if he is active. Julio Jones is not on the injury report, and it sounds like he has worked his way beyond his own hamstring injury. That has plagued him in prior seasons, and he is not getting any younger. Chester Rogers has stepped up into the void, but he is managing a groin injury. That leaves Josh Reynolds, Marcus Johnson and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine potentially getting increased roles depending on the status of the regulars. Update: Josh Reynolds is out, Chester Rogers is in.
Tune in to NFL Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock on the Awesemo YouTube channel tonight at 6:30 p.m. ET for up-to-date analysis as we get closer to kickoff.
Tight End
This is another muddled mess, as four players have shared 27 targets on the season. Anthony Firkser has three receptions in each of the three games he has played, but he has not topped 40 yards. MyCole Pruitt has the lone touchdown, but it came on a busted coverage. Geoff Swaim is on the field the most, though he is more of a blocker, with only a target or two each game. Tommy Hudson will likely be inactive tonight if everyone else is available.
Defense/Special Teams
The Titans are a bend-not-break defense that is averaging two sacks and one takeaway per game. They are in the bottom third of the league, allowing 26 points per game going against the top offense (34.4 points) that does not cede sacks or turnovers.
Monday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS Strategy
The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value, but for those taking the MME approach, remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. This also works conversely with pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with their quarterback.
Week 6 Monday Night Football NFL DFS Rankings
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks
- Josh Allen: Projects for 10 more points than the next-closest option.
- Ryan Tannehill: 10% discount from Henry on FanDuel and DraftKings and a strong probability of approaching 40 attempts give him the nod.
- Derrick Henry: Touchdown equity is high; this will be his first real test of the season.
- Julio Jones: Very appealing on DraftKings at $6,600, which is an appropriate salary. The $11,000 tag on FanDuel drops him to the bottom of this section.
- Stefon Diggs: He has not had a monster game yet, but a two-touchdown performance is lurking.
- Zack Moss and Devin Singletary: This is a tricky situation. DraftKings provides a nice discount for assuming the risk that the diminished playing time for Singletary will continue. On FanDuel it makes sense to find the $1,500 to get to Moss. It is not worth playing both in the same lineup until iterations 75 to 100.
- Randy Bullock: Tennessee should at least be able to get the ball into field goal range tonight.
- Tyler Bass: Some risk if all Buffalo does is score touchdowns.
- A.J. Brown: Keep tabs on his health; a dehydrating illness is not going to do any favors for his hamstring issue.
- Buffalo D/ST: Best defense in the league; if they force Tennessee to pass, they will have many opportunities for fantasy production.
Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks
- Cole Beasley: Solid savings compared to Sanders; two targets in each of the last two games is concerning, but he does have two double-digit-target games this season.
- Emmanuel Sanders: Steady opportunities with a consistent half dozen targets per game. However, the recent touchdowns (four in the last three games) are tacking on a premium for Monday’s salary.
- Dawson Knox: Hard to count on a touchdown for a fifth straight game, but clearly Allen looks to him in the red zone.
Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks
- Anthony Firkser: If he gets a touchdown, he will outproduce the kickers. If they get a couple field goals, they will flip the script.
- Jeremy McNichols: Worth a dart throw on DraftKings where he is cash viable.
- Chester Rogers: Becomes appealing if Brown is out.
- Marcus Johnson: Punt option who would be the best value on the slate if one of the regular receivers is out.
- Tennessee D/ST: Needs a splash play to be any sort of factor tonight.
- Gabe Davis: Needs something to happen to one of the other receivers; just three targets in the last three games.
- Josh Reynolds: Foot injury has limited him to just two games this season. Update: Josh Reynolds is out, Chester Rogers and Jeremy McNichols are in.
- MyCole Pruitt, Geoff Swaim, Tommy Sweeny, Tommy Hudson: Backup tight ends — meh.
- Khari Blasingame, Jake Kumerow, Reggie Gilliam, Mekhi Sargent, Mitch Trubisky: If they beat us, so be it.
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