It is a gargantuan 13-game slate in the NHL this Thursday night, providing DFS players with no shortage of options from which to make their picks. All the big names like Connor McDavid, Auston Matthews, David Pastrnak, Alex Ovechkin and Roman Josi are featured, so this article will look at some of the softer matchups present for some of the non-superstar options. As always, Stokastic subscribers should check in with the members-only Discord for line/injury updates.
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NHL DFS Picks, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays
Center
Jack Hughes (NJ at SEA): DraftKings – $7,900 | FanDuel – $10,000
It was a slow start to the season in terms of goals for Jack Hughes, as he posted just seven in his first 20 games. A 29-goal pace is good for most players, but for a star that for 44 goals per 82 games a season ago, it would have been a step back. A lot of that scoring drop was shooting percentage-driven, though, as he converted on just 8.4% of his chances. Things have turned in a big way since Thanksgiving, as he’s posted a massive 22 goals in 24 games (34 total points), averaging 4.8 shots per game. His last 82 regular season games, going back to last season, have seen him score 50 goals and post over 100 points. That is genuine superstar-level production.
New Jersey is in Seattle tonight and the Kraken have been shaky defensively of late. Their last six weeks have seen them 21st in expected goals against per minute at five-on-five – worse than teams like Buffalo and Detroit – and 27th by shots against per minute with a man in the penalty box. It gives Hughes and the Devils a positive matchup offensively.
With all the top center options tonight, early Stokastic NHL DFS ownership projections have Hughes under 5% on DraftKings and 1% on FanDuel. He makes a solid one-off option for this slate.
Morgan Frost (PHI vs. CHI): DraftKings – $3,800 | FanDuel – $4,300
Among the team’s producers, Travis Konecny leads the way for the Flyers, but Morgan Frost has been very good of late on his own: six goals and 16 points in his last 20 games, averaging two shots per game. That isn’t elite, or close to it, but Frost isn’t being priced as an elite option, either. His line has been very good at five-on-five in that span as well, posting 2.9 expected goals and 3.9 actual goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five, controlling over 55% of the expected goal share.
Chicago is giving up the third-most expected goals and second-most actual goals against at five-on-five over the last six weeks. The penalty kill has been a bit better than earlier this season but is still 26th in goals against per minute in that stretch. Frost is on the second power play unit now, but some power play time is still better than none.
The matchup against Chicago is likely to draw some ownership to the Philadelphia side and Frost is expected to come in somewhere between 4-5% in many large-field tournaments. It is a bit heavy, but still fine considering the opponent, and he can be used with his line mates in a stack for such contests.
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Winger
Matthew Tkachuk (FLA at MTL): DraftKings – $7,900 | FanDuel – $9,900
On the topic of high ownership, expect a lot on Florida, as Stokastic’s Top Stacks Tool has their first and second lines coming with just under 30% combined ownership on DraftKings tonight and over 26% on FanDuel. A large part of that is having Montreal as an opponent, a team that is struggling like Chicago has been: 31st by expected goals against per minute at five-on-five over the last six weeks and 25th by shots against per minute on the penalty kill. If it weren’t for great goaltending at times, the Canadiens’ goals against numbers would be considerably worse than they are.
That is where Matthew Tkachuk comes into play. His line has been nothing short of elite at five-on-five, producing 4.3 expected goals and 3.9 actual goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five, controlling over 61% of the expected goal share. When these two teams faced off three weeks ago, Florida put up seven goals and Tkachuk had two of them, managing nine shots.
Florida’s top winger is coming in second in projected points, per Stokastic, on both DraftKings and FanDuel. A lack of power play correlation with his line mates means he can be used as a one-off, but in such a good matchup, some sort of stack is certainly in play for tournaments.
Johnny Gaudreau (CBJ vs. ANA): DraftKings – $5,800 | FanDuel – $7,200
On the topic of teams that should draw a lot of ownership, the Columbus Blue Jackets are hosting an Anaheim team that is giving up 19% more shots per minute at five-on-five than the next-closest team (Montreal) over the last six weeks. As a result, they are giving up the most goals per minute and nearly 15% more than the next-closest team (Chicago). Goaltending has helped them at times, but it can’t help them all the time.
That is part of what makes Johnny Gaudreau an appealing option for this game. On top of that poor defense from Anaheim, Gaudreau has been reunited with Boone Jenner, and Columbus creates 20% more expected goals when the two of them are together than when Gaudreau is on the ice without his usual center.
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As mentioned earlier, though, the ownership will be very high on this winger. Gaudreau is leading both the DraftKings and FanDuel NHL DFS ownership projections here at Stokastic, coming in over 23% on both sites. DFS players will have a decision to make about rostering a winger (or a line) that has a good chance of being the chalkiest on a slate with 26 teams. With perfect correlation on the power play, though, they’re hard to ignore.
Nino Niederreiter (NSH at STL): DraftKings – $4,200 | FanDuel – $5,700
Nashville has been shuffling their lines a lot of late and the result of this has been more ice time for Nino Niederreiter. He is averaging 17:17 per game over his last five games, compared to 15:43 leading up to this recent stretch. The Swiss winger has posted 17 shots on goal in those last five matchups as his peripherals climb with additional playing time.
St. Louis has struggled defensively this year, and the issues have persisted with Ryan O’Reilly out of the lineup, as their expected goals against have been consistently in the bottom-10 of the league with or without him. That gives Niederreiter a good matchup for tonight, even if his team is on the road. For all the reasons mentioned, the six-time 20-goal scorer is fifth in Stokastic’s DraftKings winger projections for those priced under $4,500. The value is less pronounced on FanDuel’ where he’s more expensive, but still acceptable.
For those playing on FanDuel looking for a cheaper wing option, Brandon Saad (STL, $4,200) on the other side of this game has been moved to the top line with Jordan Kyrou. Nashville is poor defensively in their own right so he’s acceptable as a salary-saving one-off option for tonight.
Defense
Noah Dobson (NYI at BUF): DraftKings – $6,300 | FanDuel – $6,700
It is a back-to-back situation for the New York Islanders and that can make things a little difficult for the road team. With that said, they are getting a good matchup tonight in Buffalo: the Sabres are 20th by expected goals against at five-on-five over the last six weeks, 18th by actual goals against and giving up the most shots per minute while down a man. Those below-average-to-poor defensive numbers are what points to Noah Dobson, even in this road game situation.
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The matchup against the Sabres has given Dobson a strong projection on DraftKings tonight as he’s ranked sixth by median DraftKings points and the second highest of any blue liner priced under $7,300. He is ranked a bit lower on FanDuel’, coming in ninth, where his peripherals aren’t as coveted; he has seven DraftKings shot bonuses and nine DraftKings block bonuses on the campaign. For those wanting to pay down from the most expensive options, Dobson should be an option for DFS tournaments.
Dmitry Orlov (WSH at ARI): DraftKings – $4,400 | FanDuel – $5,400
It would be remiss to not mention the matchup Washington has with Arizona this evening. In direct comparison to some of the teams mentioned in this article like Chicago, Montreal and Anaheim, Arizona is in the bottom-10 by expected goals and shots against metrics at both five-on-five and on the penalty kill over the last six weeks. That recent play isn’t stellar, but it’s also been going on the vast majority of the season, so it’s nothing that new from the Coyotes.
This is part of what gives Dmitry Orlov such a strong projection for tonight. On top of that, even without top power play minutes, he leads the team’s blue line in ice time per game over their last five games. That span has seen him post two points, 15 shots and five blocks. Of all defensemen priced under $5,000 on DraftKings tonight, Orlov is fourth by median point projection, and that gives him good value on that site. That value extends to FanDuel where his projection is second for rearguards carrying a price tag under $6,000.
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Goalie
Marc-Andr̩ Fleury (MIN at CAR): DraftKings Р$7,100 | FanDuel Р$7,900
The Carolina Hurricanes are one of two teams in the league to get at least 40% of their shot attempts at five-on-five from their defensemen. Shots from defensemen are much less dangerous than from the forwards, even when factoring rebounds or tips. It is one reason why Carolina, despite the highest shot volume in the league at five-on-five, is ranked just 14th in goals per minute. The way they run their offense can lead to a lot of easy saves for the opposing goalie (though, in fairness, generating so much offense can also lead to a lot of goals against if the goalie isn’t sharp).
Per Stokastic’s GoalieStats, Marc-André Fleury is fourth in expected saves tonight and has the lowest expected goals against of any net-minder in the top 4. Goalies can get shelled against a team that takes so many shots, but they also stand a reasonable chance of success if they don’t. It gives them some wriggle room that others facing low volume do not. For that reason, Fleury should be considered for tournaments tonight.
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FLA2: Bennett-Verhaeghe-Tkachuk
As mentioned in the section on Tkachuk, this is a great matchup for Florida at all strengths. It is worth mentioning the projections that this trio carries because it crystallizes how good a spot this is for them. Per the Stokastic Lineup Builder, FLA2 has a median projection of 36.4 DraftKings points. For context, that is higher than the Winnipeg top line, the Minnesota top line, the Tampa Bay top line, and the Dallas top line. This Florida three-man unit is also cheaper than all those others mentioned. Though they’ll carry higher ownership, the Top Stacks Tool has them with positive leverage on both sites, and all this makes them a target for tournaments on this slate.
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NSH1: Forsberg-Duchene-Glass
For DFS players looking for a cheaper line, the trio of Cody Glass, Filip Forsberg and Matt Duchene should be considered. As mentioned earlier in the section on Niederreiter, this St. Louis team is a poor defensive roster. With the duo of Forsberg and Duchene on the ice, Nashville creates over 3.1 expected goals per 60 minutes and controls nearly 55% of the expected goal share. That is better than anything the Blues can muster and gives this Predators threesome a reasonable outlook. The lack of power play correlation doesn’t matter as much as in other matchups because St. Louis is the least penalized team in the league, so there’s not much need to try and mix in a power play stack.
Stokastic’s Top Stacks Tool has NSH1 coming in with just over 3% ownership on DraftKings, so they’re very much in play for tournaments. They are relatively less expensive on FanDuel, so ownership will be higher, but they’re still fine to use.
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