Following a small Thursday slate last night, there is a huge 10-game Friday NHL slate tonight, providing a wide breadth of options for DFS picks. It is loaded with top options ranging from Connor McDavid and Tage Thompson to Kirill Kaprizov and Alex Ovechkin, so narrowing down the range is paramount. Stokastic subscribers, as always, are encouraged to check the members-only Discord for lineup updates throughout the day.
Let’s dig into the games.
NHL DFS Picks, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays
Center
Sidney Crosby (PIT at BUF): DraftKings – $7,300 | FanDuel – $8,500
In a season with 20-game point streaks, five-goal games, and McDavid pacing for over 150 points, Sidney Crosby is having his best offensive season in a decade. He has 15 goals and 35 points in 26 games, averaging a shade shy of three shots per game. The quirk here is that Crosby has just six power play points as his per-minute production rate on the power play is less than half his three-year average from 2019-2022. If the Pittsburgh power play hadn’t been stumbling for most of the campaign, he could really be on a point tear.
Tonight, Crosby goes into Buffalo and will face off against the Tage Thompson line that just shredded Columbus. As good as they are offensively, that Buffalo line is giving up 3.5 expected goals against per 60 minutes at five-on-five on the year, a poor defensive number. Great goaltending behind them has saved them from a worse goals against fate but they love trading chances and that can work to Pittsburgh’s favor tonight.
Stokastic projections have Crosby fourth among centers on DraftKings and third on FanDuel where he’s one of the top high-priced values. He can be used as a one-off, but line mate correlation should direct us to line stacks in tournaments.
Evgeny Kuznetsov (WSH vs. SEA): DraftKings – $4,700 | FanDuel – $6,200
It was a rough start to the year for Evgeny Kuznetsov, who had just 7 points (all assists) through his first dozen games. He has been better of late as the team has gotten a bit healthier and he’s started shooting more, with three goals and 13 points in 15 games. He has been getting a bit more ice time but the big change of late is being moved back to the top power play unit for the Capitals. He has a power play point in three straight games, looking to make it four tonight.
Seattle’s penalty kill hasn’t been awful over the last month, per se, being in the middle of the league by shots allowed. The problem, as it is at all strengths for them, is goaltending as the team’s 4-on-5 save percentage is last in the NHL in that span. A returning T.J. Oshie has been a boon to the Washington power play as he’s boosted their shot attempt rate by a whopping 50%. The goal rate has climbed from awful to acceptable and now that Kuznetsov is on that unit, he can keep reaping the rewards.
With the power play being the focus here, Kuznetsov should be used in tournaments in some sort of stack with Oshie, Ovechkin or both.
Winger
David Pastrnak (BOS at ARI): DraftKings – $8,800 | FanDuel – $10,200
David Pastrnak is having himself quite the contract season with 18 goals and 36 points in 25 games, averaging exactly five shots per game. He has averaged just over 20 minutes a game in his last 10 outings, and he’s averaging a career-best time on ice on the season in its entirety. One of the best offensive wingers in hockey is taking his production to another level.
The matchup with Arizona is a curious one. They just got blown up by Edmonton in an 8-2 loss but had backup goalie Connor Ingram in net. Over the last month, they’re in the middle of the league by expected goals and actual goals against at five-on-five, which is good for what is a rebuilding team. Their problem is the penalty kill and discipline. In that same span, Arizona is 23rd by shots and 27th by goals allowed per minute when down a man. They are also giving the most power plays per game to the opponent. It is a great spot for the Boston power play, and thus Pastrnak.
Given his shot volume, not being with other top power play players at even strength and being at-or-near the top of Stokastic’s projections on both sites, Pastrnak is fine to use as a one-off, but can be used in some sort of Boston power play stack.
Patrick Kane (CHI vs. WPG): DraftKings – $5,400 | FanDuel – $5,600
A big problem with Patrick Kane’s early-season fantasy performance was his shot rate. He had just 39 shots in the teams’ first 15 games, or 2.6 per game. This is a guy who was at 3.7 shots per game last season and was over 4.2 shots per game as recently as 2019. That issue has reversed itself of late as he’s posted 43 shots in his last 10 contests, hitting the DraftKings shot bonus on three occasions. A bit of shooting percentage regression – he’s at a career-worst 4.9% – could see a goal-scoring onslaught in the offing for Kane.
One of the big reasons for his recommendation tonight, besides his shooting binge, is the matchup with Winnipeg. The Jets played last night and had Connor Hellebuyck in net. He has been arguably the top goaltender in the league this year and has been one of the best for a long time. They will have David Rittich in net, and that is one of the biggest starter-to-backup downgrades in the league by Evolving Hockey’s Goals Saved Above Expected. For that reason, Kane is projecting as one of the top winger values on the slate, regardless of cost.
At his price, Kane is a target for us as a one-off option this evening, but a line stack in tournaments is acceptable as well.
Blake Coleman (CGY at CBJ): DraftKings – $3,300 | FanDuel – $4,500
Blake Coleman has been skating 15:32 per contest over his last 10 outings, an increase of nearly a minute and a half from earlier in the season. That rise in ice time has seen a commensurate rise in shots per game (1.6 to 2.2) and point per game (0.31 to 0.70). Those aren’t massive offensive numbers, but Coleman isn’t being priced as such, either.
Calgary’s third line, including Coleman, has been dynamite at five-on-five since being assembled, generating 2.7 expected goals per 60 minutes and controlling over 62% of the expected goal share. They will face the depth of the Columbus Blue Jackets tonight and with their top line off the ice this year, the Jackets are allowing over four goals against per 60 minutes. The depth is struggling, and it gives Coleman a great in-game matchup.
Among all wingers on DraftKings tonight priced under $4,500, Coleman is ninth in projected points. Over on FanDuel, among all wingers priced under $5,000, he’s sixth. He presents a solid value in a very good matchup and the price means he is fine to use as a salary-saving one-off option. He can be used in a duo with one of his line mates to enable an expensive stack like Edmonton, Boston, or Pittsburgh alongside them.
Defense
Shea Theodore (VGK vs. PHI): DraftKings – $6,000 | FanDuel – $6,700
It has been five games without Alex Pietrangelo in the lineup and even with Jack Eichel also missing a couple of those, Shea Theodore has 5 points and 15 shots on goal, skating over 24 minutes a night. He has taken Pietrangelo’s spot on the power play and that has resulted in three points with the man advantage in those five games.
Philadelphia is in town and after a brilliant start to the year from Carter Hart, he has allowed 33 goals in his last 10 games, posting an .879 save percentage. The Flyers have been a mid-pack team defensively both at five-on-five and on the penalty kill over the last month, which isn’t bad, but they need to be at the top of their game against one of the top teams in the West. The matchup has Theodore projecting for more points than other top defense options like Rasmus Dahlin and Dougie Hamilton despite those guys being more expensive. Vegas’s number-1 blue liner is one of the top priorities at his position tonight.
Darnell Nurse (EDM vs. MIN): DraftKings – $4,700 | FanDuel – $6,000
One problem for Darnell Nurse’s fantasy value is he’s not involved in the rotating door of defensemen on the team’s top power play unit. That underrates his fantasy production this year, though, as he’s on pace for 46 points despite the lack of power play production. He is also a blue liner that can bring good peripherals, as he’s managing 2.1 shots and 1.8 blocks per game. On the year, he has three DraftKings shot bonuses and eight block bonuses, including one combo meal.
Among all rearguards on DraftKings tonight priced under $5,500, Nurse is second by Stokastic’s point projections and his point-per-dollar value is one of the best among non-punt options. His value suffers on FanDuel where he’s (relatively) more expensive and peripherals don’t matter as much but he’s still playable. Nurse is one of the top mid-priced options on DraftKings slate tonight.
Over on FanDuel, Hamilton (NJD, $5,900) is very reasonably priced, projecting as one of the top-5 defense values for players priced over $5,100.
Goaltender
John Gibson (ANA vs. SJ): DraftKings – $7,300 | FanDuel – $6,700
Despite Anaheim being one of the worst defensive teams in the league, or perhaps because of it, John Gibson has had some very good fantasy performances this year. Six of his 20 starts have resulted in at least 20 DraftKings points this season, twice hitting the 30-point mark. For reference, Vegas goalie Logan Thompson has just one more 20-point game than Gibson, and the same number of 30-point games, despite being on a top team in the league. Shot volume matters a lot in fantasy games and no goalie faces more shots per game than Gibson does. He is expected to have the third highest save total, per Stokastic’s projections, of tonight’s goalies.
San Jose is in town tonight and they’ve been a mid-pack scoring team over the last month. Gibson stands a reasonable chance of a good fantasy performance, so he’s one of the top cheap options in net on this 10-gamer.
Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
PIT1: Crosby-Guentzel-Rakell
As mentioned in the Crosby section, Buffalo’s top line tends to trade chances, and that is a good thing for this Pittsburgh trio. With Crosby, Jake Guentzel, and Rickard Rakell on the ice this year at five-on-five, the Penguins are generating a whopping 4.1 expected goals and 4.3 actual goals per 60 minutes. They have been dominant as a three-man unit and it’s a good even-strength matchup.
Pittsburgh’s power play has been anemic for a while now, but Buffalo’s penalty kill has been awful, ranking 29th by shots and goals allowed over the last month. It is one of the few matchups for this perfectly correlated line to find its game on the power play.
Our Top Stacks tool has this trio as a top-4 line, at least, on both sites tonight, and they are carrying a lot of positive leverage on DraftKings. They are one of the most expensive options for tournament players on this slate.
NYR3: Kreider-Trocheck-Vesey
The New York Rangers have broken up their lines and now have their four power play forwards spread across three even-strength lines. Their supposed third line features two of these forwards in Chris Kreider and Vincent Trocheck, and it’s a big reason for the recommendation here. As injuries have mounted, the Colorado penalty kill has started sliding, ranking in the bottom-10 for shots against over the last three weeks. New York’s power play has shown itself, at times, to be as good as any in the league.
Beyond the power play matchup, the Avalanche are obviously suffering from depth issues with all their injuries, and that means soft matchups for the newly formed Rangers trio; Colorado is 25th in shots allowed and 23rd in goals allowed per minute at five-on-five in that same three-week span.
Additional stats from Natural Stat Trick
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