We have reached our first Friday night of NHL DFS action this season, games in Europe excluded. There is notable injury news tonight as Columbus’s Patrik Laine could miss up to a month, which brings a value winger up to the top line. Meanwhile, in San Jose, Timo Meier and Mario Ferraro could miss tonight’s game, with prospect William Eklund being recalled. We also have a Rangers team on a back-to-back, so there could be late-breaking news that is very relevant to DFS players. That is where our subscriber-only Discord can help a lot, as updated news and lines are shared constantly all day.
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NHL DFS Picks Today, Top Stacks & Lineup Optimizer Plays
Center
Dylan Larkin (DET vs. MTL): DraftKings – $6,400 | FanDuel – $6,600
It was a big rebound year for Dylan Larkin in 2021-22, posting 69 points in 71 games, falling a shade shy of three shots per night. He had just 76 points in his prior 115 games, so the influx of talent from names like Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider paid dividends for the Detroit captain.
What is important to note is that it could have been an even better year for him. His frequent linemate, Tyler Bertuzzi, impacts the team’s scoring a lot, as the Red Wings tallied 26% more often with the two of them on the ice together than when Larkin was without him over his last three seasons. Bertuzzi missed a lot of games with the now-extinct COVID rules at the border, so it’s easy to envision Larkin being over a point per game had he been there all year.
On top of that, the signing of David Perron is a big one for Hockeytown. The top power play unit scored just 7.5 goals per 60 minutes a year ago. For comparison, the top units for Ottawa and Carolina were around 10 per 60. Perron, per advanced stats site Evolving Hockey, is inside the 90th percentile on power play goal impact. He will help Larkin with the man advantage, even if they don’t skate together at even strength. This is a good matchup for Detroit and their top center for tonight is at a reasonable price, which is why he’s the top value center on both sites by our projections for any pivot over $6,000.
Jesperi Kotkaniemi (CAR at SJS): DraftKings – $2,900 | FanDuel – $4,600
San Jose lost defenseman Brent Burns in the offseason while top winger Meier may not play on Friday night. This was a bad Sharks team a year ago and they don’t look to be any better. Even if Meier plays, once the top line was off the ice in 2021-22, the team’s expected goal share fell roughly 7.5% and actual goal share fell 25%. They just don’t have depth, which is what makes Jesperi Kotkaniemi and non-top-line Carolina forwards interesting for us tonight.
Kotkaniemi has over 225 minutes skating alongside current winger Martin Necas and over the last three seasons, the team has scored 3.2 goals per 60 minutes with them on the ice at 5-on-5. They have developed good offensive chemistry and should be a formidable trio with Andrei Svechnikov on the left side. This particular line will avoid the Sharks’ top line for much of the night and that gives them free rein against a poor San Jose second and third line.
Of course, this is all about his price. No matter the site, he doesn’t need to produce much to pay off his price tag. This is a good matchup for a center with two good wingers at a depressed cost. He is very much in play for tournaments.
On FanDuel, teammate Jordan Staal does grade out as a better value for a similar price by our early projections, it should be noted.
Winger
Nikolaj Ehlers (WPG vs. NYR): DraftKings – $6,500 | FanDuel – $6,900
Over the previous three seasons, Nikolaj Ehlers has managed a 72-points/82-game pace for Winnipeg, averaging well over three shots per game (and nearly four a night in 2021-22 alone). The twist here is he did that while managing just 17% of his points on the power play. To reference other top-scoring wingers, Jake Guentzel’s power play point percentage in his last three seasons is 27% with Kirill Kaprizov at 28% and teammate Kyle Connor just shy of 27% himself. In other words, a lack of a power play role has robbed Ehlers of point-per-game potential, but the good news is he’s jumped to the top line and top power play for Winnipeg.
The other bit of important news for this game is that New York is on a back-to-back, having played last night in Minnesota. That means starting goalie Igor Shesterkin, who is likely the best goalie in the world, is due for a night off. Teams playing the Rangers when Shesterkin is not in goal always need consideration. With Ehlers jumping up to play with Connor and Mark Scheifele both at even strength and the man advantage, he’s a top winger on the slate tonight in all formats. Just expect a lot of ownership, as our early ownership has him as the highest-drafted wing option on DraftKings.
Brandon Hagel (TBL at CBJ): DraftKings – $4,000 | FanDuel – $4,100
Following a loss to the aforementioned Rangers, the Lightning has changed up their lines, pushing Brandon Hagel to the top trio alongside Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov. Needless to say, this is a very cushy slotting for the cheapish winger. Tampa Bay scored well over three goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 in the previous three seasons with Point and Kucherov on the ice without Steven Stamkos. Hagel is sliding onto a line with high offensive potential.
Going into Columbus is a big part of the appeal here. The Blue Jackets were among the worst defensive teams at all strengths in 2021-22 and did not address this issue with on-ice personnel in the offseason. They may have improved offensively, but the defensive improvements remain to be seen. On top of that, their NHL goaltending duo of Elvis Merzlikins and Joonas Korpisalo remains out of the lineup, leaving duties to AHL goalie Daniil Tarasov.
Hagel is expensive enough that he is not really a one-off target for us in tournaments. Just scoring a goal doesn’t really smash his price, so bringing at least one of his linemates for the ride in tournament lineups is the strategy here.
Sean Monahan (MTL at DET): DraftKings – $2,800 | FanDuel – $4,500
It was a successful debut for Sean Monahan on Wednesday night against Toronto, scoring a late goal that helped Montreal eventually get the win over Toronto. What may be more important is that he skated over 18 minutes, largely thanks to a top power play role, which is a huge amount of ice time for a guy priced down where he is.
For DFS players unaware of Monahan’s story, he was a three-time 30-goal scorer by the age of 24 but injuries derailed his career. He had four separate surgeries after the 2017-18 season, hip surgery at the end of the 2021 season and another hip surgery last April. His play had clearly declined over the last few years and that’s why his former team, Calgary, decided to move on from him. He just turned 28 years old earlier this week so it’s not as if he’s far over the hill. He has time to recoup his former goal-scoring glory and showed flashes of it in their first game.
Monahan is skating on what is Montreal’s top power play unit and should avoid top-line competition, a reason why he’s one of eight wingers projected for at least 8 FanDuel points but priced at $4,500 or less. At his price and potential ice time, he’s perfectly fine to use as a cost-saving solo player in tournaments.
For a cheap winger option on FanDuel, Justin Danforth (CBJ, $3,900) is expected to skate on the top line and top power play unit in the absence of Laine. At his price, he really doesn’t need a lot to reach value, even though it is a tough matchup against the Lightning.
Defense
Moritz Seider (DET vs. MTL): DraftKings – $5,300 | FanDuel – $6,500
Setting aside the 50-point season that Seider had as a rookie defenseman, he was one of just three blueliners in the NHL with at least 180 shots and 160 blocks, along with Jacob Trouba and Alex Pietrangelo. For those using DraftKings, Seider had seven shot bonuses and 22 block bonuses last season, so he doesn’t need huge goal/assist totals to produce fantasy value. That, along with his reasonable DraftKings price, has him as the second-best value for all blueliners with a cost of at least $5,000 tonight.
As mentioned in the section on Larkin, the addition of Perron should help a mediocre Detroit power play take a step this season. That will benefit all their top players, Seider included. Montreal coming to town is a good matchup for them and his price is still reasonable across the industry.
Mikhail Sergachev (TB at CBJ): DraftKings – $3,900 | FanDuel – $5,500
With Ryan McDonagh being traded to Nashville and injuries/suspensions to other Lightning defensemen, Mikhail Sergachev is expected to pick up some ice time slack. He skated 23:37 in the team’s first game of the season, a mark he exceeded in fewer than 30% of his games last year. More ice time totals like this are a great thing for a blueliner priced where he is. He is by far our best DraftKings value among rearguards priced between $3,000 and $5,000.
Though not a peripheral monster like Seider, Sergachev averaged 1.9 shots and 1.6 blocks per game a year ago. We aren’t using him for those peripherals, though. It is for the great matchup we talked about in the section on Hagel. More ice time and a plus matchup at a cheap price bring Sergachev into focus for us here tonight.
For a better value on FanDuel, DFSers should look towards Jaccob Slavin (CAR, $4,600), who carries a double-digit point projection at a very reasonable price.
Goalie
James Reimer (SJS vs. CAR): DraftKings – $7,600 | FanDuel – $6,800
With Meier likely out for tonight’s game – at the time of writing it’s uncertain, which is why our subscriber-only Discord can be a big help – the Sharks are missing their top offensive player. For them to win this game against a Cup contender, they’ll likely need a big performance from their goaltender. Our early projection run has James Reimer as having the top median projected saves of all goalies on this slate due to Carolina’s offensive proficiency and San Jose’s lack of defense. The issue is whether he allows four-plus goals or can keep the Sharks in the game. This is a volatile prospect but if Reimer can hold down the fort, he has the potential for a big fantasy night. He needs to be considered as a cheap tournament option, especially on FanDuel.
Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
WPG1: Connor-Scheifele-Ehlers
This line looks to be higher owned on DraftKings than FanDuel, but we could see them over 20% on both sites tonight. As mentioned in the section on Ehlers, this is a back-to-back for the incoming Rangers squad, likely giving their all-world goalie a rest. This line is perfectly correlated, meaning they’re going to skate together at even strength and on the power play. Unlike some other top lines tonight, there’s a reasonable chance all three forwards skate close to or over 20 minutes, which is always a welcome boost. Ownership will be high, but they still need strong recognition when building lineups for this DFS slate.
CAR2: Svechnikov-Kotkaniemi-Necas
Our section on Kotkaniemi explored the upside of not skating against the top line for the Sharks, which works to this Carolina line’s benefit tonight. The Hurricanes are a team that likes to spread out ice time so there’s little chance any of them approach the 20-minute mark, but Necas and Svechnikov were second and fourth in TOI during Carolina’s first game of the season, both coming in over 17 minutes. Ownership by our Top Stacks tool looks in check tonight on DraftKings as they’re expected to be in the single digits, maybe approaching 10%. On FanDuel, a cheap price could see them much higher owned, so pivoting to the top line, especially if Meier is out for San Jose, is a good way to avoid the heavy ownership, even at a higher price.
*Additional Stats from Natural Stat Trick
