Best MLB Bets Today: Baseball Prop Picks & Predictions Thursday 7/7

For this July 7 slate, there are a bunch of games being played. There are a total of 13 games being played — three in the afternoon and 10 in the evening. The slate features some aces like Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander, Dylan Cease and Jose Musgrove. Even though it’s not the Fourth of July, there are chances of fireworks tonight in Arizona as Austin Gomber and Dallas Keuchel face off. Whenever there is a mix of good pitching matchups and games that feature bad pitching it always creates an interesting slate from a betting perspective because there are so many different approaches one can go with, and tonight is no exception.

OddsShopper can help you find all of the best MLB betting picks, giving helpful tips for making your MLB bet today. Below are three strikeout props and two home run props — our best ROI MLB prop bets tonight.

Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions

Dylan Cease O/U 8.5 Strikeouts | Claim $200 FREE at BetMGM

Dylan Cease is having a nice season with a 2.95 xFIP and a 34.3% strikeout rate. Both of those metrics are the best of his career. He also is averaging 1.45 strikeouts per inning. To get nine strikeouts or more, he would have to pitch 6.1 innings on average. Cease does not go deep into games. In his 16 starts, only five have gone six or more innings. He is pitching to Detroit, a team with the eighth-highest strikeout rate in baseball at 23.5%. Being able to get nine or more strikeouts is within his range of outcomes, but is less likely to happen than under nine strikeouts. According to the Stokastic MLB Model, he has a 60% chance of going under the total and the bet has a 20% expected ROI.

Best MLB Prop Bet Pick Today: Dylan Cease UNDER 8.5 Strikeouts (+100)

Bailey Falter O/U 3.5 Strikeouts | Claim $200 FREE at BetMGM

Bailey Falter will pitch against the Washington Nationals this afternoon. Falter is not having a great season. In just 24 innings pitched, he’s carrying a 5.09 xFIP and a 17.1% strikeout rate. In his last two starts, he struck out five batters in four innings pitched and four batters in five innings pitched, despite allowing three earned runs in each of those two starts. In his four starts, the only time he has gone under four strikeouts is when he pitched just three innings. The Stokastic MLB Model gives Falter a 55% chance of going over 3.5 strikeouts with the bet having a 22% expected ROI.

Best MLB Prop Bet Pick Today: Bailey Falter OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (+120)

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Rafael Devers To Hit A Home Run | Claim $200 FREE at BetMGM

Rafael Devers faces Gerrit Cole tonight in Boston. While Cole is an ace and one of the best pitchers in the game, one thing he does do is allow home runs at the rate of 1.35 HR/9. He also has a hard-hit rate of 38.6%, a number that is relatively high for such a good pitcher. Devers has a .274 ISO against right-handed pitchers this year. Devers does have four home runs in 21 at-bats against Cole, so he can be got to.The Stokastic MLB model gives Devers a 22% chance of hitting a home run while the +450 implied odds are 18.2% giving this bet an expected ROI of 21%. This is the best HR prop bet on the evening slate.

Best MLB Prop Bet Pick Today: Rafael Devers To Hit A Home Run (+450)

Austin Gomber O/U 3.5 Strikeouts | Claim $200 FREE at BetMGM

Austin Gomber will face the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight in Arizona. Gomber has a 4.27 xFIP, a 17.3% strikeout rate, and averages 0.74 strikeouts per inning. On average, he would have to pitch between 5.1 and 5.2 innings to reach four strikeouts. Against LHP, Arizona has the seventh-highest strikeout rate at 23.5%. His last start was on July 2 against Arizona and he struck out just two batters in 5.2 innings pitched. At OddsShopper, Gomber has a projection of 4.3 strikeouts and a 63% chance of going over 3.5 strikeouts.

Best MLB Prop Bet Pick Today: Austin Gomber OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (-110)

Ryan Mountcastle To Hit A Home Run | Claim $200 FREE at BetMGM

Ryan Mountcastle faces Chase Silseth in Baltimore tonight. Silseth has a solid 4.19 SIERA but is allowing 2.18 HR/9 on the season. Mountcastle has a .221 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. The Stokastic MLB Model gives Mountcastle a 19% chance of hitting a home run while the sportsbooks imply a 15.6% chance of hitting a home run, giving this bet a 21% expected ROI.

Best MLB Prop Bet Pick Today: Ryan Mountcastle To Hit A Home Run (+540)

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