Night 2 of the first-ever NBA Play-In Tournament was a whole lot more exciting than its predecessor. Thursday sees the final spot in the Eastern Conference Playoff bracket awarded as the Indiana Pacers face the Washington Wizards for the No. 8 seed. Although there’s only one game on tap, there are still some enticing odds and picks to target when it comes to NBA player props. Today’s best featured NBA prediction includes a pair of plus-money props for Doug McDermott and Bradley Beal.
Yesterday’s NBA Player Props Recap
We hit on two of our three NBA betting picks again on Wednesday. DeMar DeRozan was hounded all night by Dillon Brooks and came up short of 25.5 points. Dennis Schroder also came through, just squeaking over the line of 4.5 assists. Unfortunately, Stephen Curry did manage to exceed 5.5 rebounds and kept us from a clean sweep in the process. Let’s look to keep up the good form with tonight’s NBA prediction.
Tonight’s Best NBA Player Props, Odds, Picks & Predictions
Doug McDermott Under 17.5 Points
McDermott has been on fire shooting the basketball of late. A 21-point performance in Tuesday’s play-in win over the Hornets marked the fifth straight game with 17 points or more for McDermott. Thanks to the evolving injury situation that the Pacers are managing, he has also seen a minimum of 25 minutes in nine of the last 10 games. While all that makes it seem logical that the NBA betting market is leaning towards the over on tonight’s line of 17.5 points, the Awesemo NBA Player Props Tool actually prefers to go in the other direction.
When it comes to statistics and regression to the mean, the under is easily the preferred play here. On the season, McDermott is averaging just 13.6 points per game. That’s a full 4 points below tonight’s NBA betting line. Granted, he hasn’t consistently seen 25 minutes, but the other thing that jumps out from the recent performances are his shooting percentages. Take Tuesday’s play-in game, for example. McDermott connected on seven of his nine field-goal attempts, including 4-for-6 shooting from 3-point range. In fact, in each of the four recent games where he has exceeded 17.5 points, McDermott has hit a minimum of three triples. He isn’t exactly known for maintaining consistent shooting form.
Even with Caris LeVert set to remain sidelined tonight, this line is really scratching McDermott’s ceiling. Add in the even-money odds on the under, and it’s arguably the most logical Pacers NBA player props pick on the board this evening.
Bradley Beal Over 5.5 Rebounds
Star players show up when the lights shine the brightest. Beal has averaged just 4.7 boards per game on the season, but he snared nine in Tuesday’s play-in game loss to the Celtics. This followed up a regular-season finale in which Beal collected six rebounds to elevate the Wizards to the eighth seed coming into the play-in. There is plenty of reason to support Beal to once again make an impact on the glass.
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When it comes to team rebounding, the Wizards figure to have a drastic advantage over the Pacers in tonight’s matchup. Indiana ranked 26th in this statistic for the season, which is a positive for Washington NBA player props. In addition, the Wizards and Pacers ranked first and second in pace of play during the season. A high-tempo game will mean more possessions and more shots. While it should also produce a high-scoring game, plenty of those additional shots won’t find nylon. This sets up as a game where Beal can complement his scoring with another strong effort on the boards.
On top of all that, the NBA betting market has juiced this prop to the under, perhaps taking Beal’s season rebounding average into consideration. That leaves contrarians with profitable odds of up to +120 at the time of writing. It never hurts to zig where the market zags every now and then. Be sure to confirm the optimal betting value using the Awesemo OddsShopper Tool before placing NBA betting picks.
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