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NHL Betting Picks: Oilers (+130) vs. Canadiens | Feb. 11
The Oilers enter this game with a 5-1 record in their last six. The record can be taken somewhat with a grain of salt, as four of those wins have come against the Senators, who are challenging to be one of the worst hockey teams in modern history. Against non-Ottawa opponents, the Oilers are 4-7 this year, so they haven’t exactly stood up well against strong competition. There’s some reason to think this team may be trending towards better play in the second quarter of the season, though, as they have solidified their top-six forward core with the emergence of Jesse Puljujarvi, who now has 3 goals over the Oilers last four games. The addition of Evan Bouchard on the backend has also played strong dividends already, and the young skill is giving the Oilers extra scoring depth they quite frankly need in order to cover for a lackluster defense. Mike Smith also returned in net for the Oilers recently and stopped 27 of 28 shots in his first game. His return might provide the biggest boost, as the Oilers were playing Mikko Koskinen every night prior to that, with lackluster results.
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On the Canadiens’ side, they’re coming into this game off a 4-2 loss to the Maple Leafs on Wednesday. Montreal has been a popular pick to win the Canadian division and haven’t disappointed yet, currently 8-3-2 on the season with a +15 goal differential. The Canadiens added some scoring depth up front in Tyler Toffoli and have some good young centers like Nick Suzuki that are taking steps forwards in 2021 as well. They currently lead the league in goals per game at 3.8. Lately, though, the scoring has dried up for Montreal, as they have now scored 2 goals or fewer in three straight games and could only manage 4 goals in two games against the lowly Senators. In net it looks like Jake Allen may get the start here after Carey Price started last night. Allen has been very good in a quasi-backup role, going 4-1 with a .940 save percentage to start the year.
Oilers Moneyline (+130) vs. Canadiens (DraftKings; PointsBet; Sugarhouse)
The Oilers look like the kind of live underdog we should be targeting tonight. They’re catching the Canadiens offense in a bit of a lull after a hot start and some of the pieces the Oilers started the season without have now returned and are starting to pay dividends. Edmonton has largely gone without good goaltending most of the season, so the fact they were able to outscore their way to an 8-7 record (and a neutral goal differential) is impressive. The Oiler goalies have now stopped 66 of their last 69 shots against, though, and could be ready to give the Oilers defense a much-needed boost. Winning a couple of tighter games against the Senators should give them confidence going forward, and they’ll likely be looking at this game against Montreal as a barometer for their own potential.
Despite leading the league in goals per game, Montreal’s power play hasn’t been great this year, connecting at a 21% clip, which puts them about league average. Edmonton’s power play has been on the rise of late, so special teams here looks like it might be a wash, or even a slight edge to Edmonton. While Montreal leads the league in expected goal rate (xGF%), their number seems ripe for regression — especially considering their poor power-play. Edmonton, on the other hand, sits 13th in this same category and is rising after a slow start. Ultimately Montreal deserves respect in these situations as home favorites, but Edmonton is catching them at the right time and likely a little undervalued here. They are a nice moneyline target for me here given the +130 odds available through the Awesemo OddsShopper tool.
Bonus: Kings Moneyline (+110, PointBet) vs. San Jose Sharks
Literally everything I wrote about this bet on Tuesday still applies here. The Kings and Sharks match up equally on paper in a lot of different ways (mostly bad ways), and the Kings still carry the better goal differential despite having played more games. Los Angeles fell behind 2-0 in the first meeting of this series on Tuesday but rallied back to take a 1-goal lead, which they promptly coughed up with 45 seconds to go, then lost in a shootout. It was disappointing, but they are now even bigger underdogs tonight at +110 against a team that carries no distinct edge over them. This season teams who have lost the first game of the two-game mini-series have a winning record in the second meeting, so the plus-money line looks like an auto-bet here again.
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