Digging into UFC Vegas 30, a number of bets standout as strong values ahead of this week’s card. This particular card features a number of volatile fights. This potentially creates value on a few sharp underdogs. Combined with a few safer picks, this card brings solid UFC betting picks potential. Awesemo’s OddsShopper tool is a crucial key to maximizing profits in these betting markets. Finding the best UFC betting odds, let’s get into the MMA betting picks and start cashing on some of these big-hitting tickets.
UFC Betting Picks, Odds & Predictions: Gane vs. Volkov
Ciryl Gane -154 (BetMGM)
Ciryl Gane takes on Alexander Volkov in the main event of the evening. Originally opening at -160, Gane’s betting odds have improved throughout the week. Gane has a perfect 8-0 professional record, but he faces his toughest test yet in Volkov. Volkov has a 33-8 professional record and two straight wins over Walt Harris and Alistair Overeem. While Volkov has the experience advantage, Gane comes from a strong Muay Thai background. He also trained with Francis Ngannou in the past, potentially cutting this edge.
Gane looks like the more well-rounded fighter in this bout and lands 5.04 significant strikes for every 1.85 absorbed. Volkov has elite striking himself, with 22 of his 33 career wins coming by knockout. However, Gane has displayed excellent striking defense at 69%. On the mat Volkov struggled in some of his recent fights. His 66% takedown defense looks adequate, but the strong grapplers of the division continue to cause him trouble. Curtis Blaydes took Volkov down 14 times and controlled him for over 19 minutes in Volkov’s most recent loss. Gane averages 1.13 takedowns on average, with three of his eight professional wins coming by submission. While Gane doesn’t have the grappling pedigree of Blaydes, his ground game could provide a path to victory over Volkov. With money continuing to come in on Volkov, waiting to bet this fight may be the best option. Either way, Gane’s strong fighting IQ makes him the sharp side of this bout.
Kennedy Nzechukwu -125 (SugarHouse)
Headlining the prelims, Kennedy Nzechukwu takes on Danilo Marques in the men’s light heavyweight division. This fight features a true clash of styles. While both fighters are large for this division, Nzechukwu has a six-inch reach advantage and lands 5.38 significant strikes per minute. Five of his eight professional wins have come via knockout. On the other side, Marques specializes on the mat. He lands only 1.81 significant strikes per minute but has 4.83 takedowns per bout. However, Marques’ 34% takedown accuracy could pose a problem against Nzechukwu. If Marques recklessly shoots takedowns like previous fights, this could open the door to Nzechukwu’s striking. Marques has already been knocked out once and now faces a step up in competition against Nzechukwu. Even if Marques can close the distance, Nzechukwu has 78% takedown defense. When Nzechukwu has been taken down, he has also shown the ability to scramble back to his feet. Darko Stosic landed four takedowns against Nzechukwu, but he managed just over two minutes of control time. While this fight is volatile, the -125 betting odds are solid for Nzechukwu given his advantages here. Some may be enticed by his +180 knockout prop. However, with a small difference between the prop and his overall line, the moneyline looks like top play.
Justin Jaynes +145 (William Hill)
Charles Rosa faces Justin Jaynes in the men’s featherweight division. Rosa is 4-5 in the UFC, continually trading off wins and losses. Jaynes is 1-3 but enters this bout off three straight losses. However, Jaynes has a few significant advantages over Rosa. Rosa’s primary skill in MMA is his black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Rosa has eight of 13 professional wins coming via submission. However, he has struggled with some of the division’s top wrestlers. Jaynes coaches wrestling at Xtreme Couture and comes from a wrestling background. While he is 0-3 on takedown attempts at the UFC level, Rosa’s 40% takedown defense invites Jaynes into his guard. On the feet Jaynes also has solid boxing, landing 3.58 significant strikes for every 6.49 absorbed. However, his 58% striking defense outclasses Rosa’s 48% striking defense. Rosa has a superior strength of schedule to Jaynes, but he continues to drop bouts to fighters with similar skills to Jaynes. An underdog for a reason, placing a smaller wager on Jaynes could pay off here.
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Jai Herbert +200 (BetMGM)
Jai Herbert takes on Renato Moicano as a +200 underdog in this featherweight bout. Now entering his second UFC fight, Herbert is coming off a knockout loss to Francisco Trinaldo. However, Herbert has a strong Muay Thai background, with eight of his 10 career wins coming via knockout. He even landed a knockdown in his first fight against Trinaldo but ultimately couldn’t put him away. Moicano has now been knocked out in each of his last three losses. He has 65% striking defense, but his durability has major question marks. Moicano is the favorite here for a reason. He is a well-rounded striker himself with black belts in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and Muay Thai. However, he has recently abandoned his jiu-jitsu in favor of his hands. On the mat, Herbert was taken down twice on three attempts against Trinaldo, but he showed an ability to scramble to his feet. Herbert also enters this fight with a two-inch height and five-inch reach advantage. While Moicano is the favorite here for a reason, Herbert has a legitimate path to victory on the feet. At +200 overall and +380 by knockout, sprinkling a little on Herbert makes sense.
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