On a loaded sports weekend including NCAA March Madness, PGA’s Honda Classic, and UFC Fight Night, a five-game slate in the NBA squeaks into the fray for Saturday with four of them tipping off this evening. Although a rather short slate, the betting lines offer various player props to include in your array of NBA betting picks for Saturday night. Tip-toeing through the subcategories on OddsShopper, we’ll cross-reference relevant player stats, rotations, and recent team trends in our pursuit of the best values among NBA odds available for Saturday. Tonight we’ll focus on Jonas Valanciunas and Andrew Wiggins.
NBA Betting Picks & Player Prop Bets | March 20
Jonas Valanciunas OVER 13.5 Rebounds (-120, PointsBet)
The Golden State Warriors flew into FedExForum, where Andrew Wiggins laid a beatdown on the Memphis Grizzlies Friday night, knocking down a season-high 40 points with star Stephen Curry absent due to a bruised tailbone. Despite the 116-103 loss, Jonas Valanciunas still did what he does best in cleaning up the boards as he bagged 16 rebounds to add to a remarkable season average in the rebound category. Looking over to the Rebounds section, we find Valanciunas stapled to a player prop of 13.5 rebounds at -120 on the over. Considering his standout season of rebounding and the Warriors lacking post presence, Valanciunas presents one of the better values among odds on Saturday’s short slate.
JoVal is having a career-best season in rebounding as he’s averaged 12.0 rebounds per game, fourth-most among NBA players this season. Including a 21% rebound rate (6th best in NBA), Valanciunas has been the driving force in Memphis, cracking the league’s top 10 teams in rebounding as he’s compensated for 29% of the Grizzlies’ rebounding on average. Acknowledging recency bias, Valanciunas is averaging 13.53 boards in the past 15 games with a 23.2% rebound rate while taking advantage of opponents presenting weaknesses in the post. He posted a season-high 20 rebounds against the Washington Wizards, notorious for said weakness, and squaring up with the Warriors (at a similar disadvantage) in a rematch of last night’s loss may add to the big man’s fire.
The Warriors will likely be without Steph Curry once again Saturday night and present the same lacking rebounding prowess as they have much of the season. Golden State is 29th in the league with a 47.4% rebound rate while allowing the most rebounds per game to the opposition with 48.5 boards surrendered on average. Ranked 27th in rebounds allowed to opposing centers, Golden State has allowed 16.4 rebounds per game to the position this season. Despite the slight premium on house juice at -120, Valanciunas is in a prime position to achieve his prescribed rebound total and a considerable value on the short slate of NBA betting.
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Andrew Wiggins OVER 1.5 Steals (+140, BetMGM)
Speaking of Andrew Wiggins, he’ll be called upon to help lead the Warriors to a second-straight victory and would be their fourth win in five games if that indeed comes to fruition this evening. Though replicating his season-high performance last night would be a tad much to ask of him, being without Curry once again lends interest to Wiggins’ stat categories when absent the Warriors’ point guard. Shifting over to the Steals subcategory on OddsShopper, we find Wiggins granted a player prop of 1.5 steals at +140 odds. When taking a closer look at Wiggins’ production when playing without his star teammate, the value becomes more evident on the plus-money odds within realistic reach for our NBA betting picks.
The Golden State tenure for Wiggins has seen its peaks and valleys of production when playing alongside the all-star, with only five games played for Curry all of last season (before injury). Cutting to the stat of focus, Wiggins’ steals this season have seen a dip from the 1.3 per game last season, averaging just beneath one steal per game in 2021 (0.9 STL). But as alluded to, it’s without Curry where Wiggins’ 32.1 minutes per game become more productive across several categories (while only gaining about a half-minute in playing time, up to 32.6 MPG), with each category among points, assists, rebounds, and steals taking a boost. The steals for Wiggins leap from .85 alongside Curry, up to 1.48 steals when he’s not, and he’s maintained a 1.4 steal-per-game average over the past 15 games (most of which has been played with Curry). Drawing Memphis as a back-to-back opponent may bear an opportunity to bolstering that average, as he just snatched four steals against this same Grizzlies lineup last night.
Drawing one of the better matchups to be chasing a steals proposition against, Wiggins faces a Memphis team that’s proven susceptible to coughing up the ball with eager hands prying. Ranking 25th in the NBA against opponent steals allowed, the Grizzlies have averaged 8.1 steals surrendered to opposing teams this season, with 1.7 of those on average stemming from opposing shooting guards. Much like player props surrounding the Blocks subcategory, Steals are every bit as risky to wager on as an ancillary stat metric, with their occurrence being much less the commodity. Yet potentially gaining 1.4-to-1 on the investment of Wiggins to achieve just half the total number of steals in which he posted last night, again without Curry, makes for one eye-catching value within Saturday’s slimmer catalog of NBA player props.
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