The NBA DFS Deep Dive is our primary in-depth daily fantasy basketball article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make the best NBA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel for any format.
NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | 3/20/21
Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies (-5.5): 219
Golden State Warriors
Once again, Steph Curry is expected to sit out. He missed yesterday’s game due to a tailbone injury and he’s listed as doubtful for today’s game. I am assuming that the Warriors will run a similar rotation today as they did last night. This is the exact same matchup against the Grizzlies with the same players out. This makes Jordan Poole the top value option from Golden State. He started at point guard last night and played 34 minutes. His price hasn’t moved much and he scores over a fantasy point per minute for the season. Nico Mannion was a chalk play last night but was barely a part of the rotation.
As a slightly more expensive value play, it’s impossible to look past Andrew Wiggins. With Curry out, he had to carry the usage load for Golden State. He posted a season-best 37.9% usage and scored 40 points. His price hasn’t adjusted so he’s one of the best plays on the slate and a must for cash games. Draymond Green and Kelly Oubre are also in play but they are lower priority options than Wiggins. Kevon Looney is a DraftKings specific play at nearly min price since he is playing extended minutes with James Wiseman and Eric Paschall both out. Golden State is the best team to target tonight.
EDIT : So much for Looney as a value play. He has now entered the health and safety protocols and will not play tonight. I am guessing Kent Bazemore could start which would make him a strong value play but, as we saw yesterday, predicting the Warriors’ starters is no easy task. Whichever cheap player enters the starting lineup will get added to my player pool.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Andrew Wiggins, Jordan Poole, Draymond Green, Kelly Oubre
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: SAndrew Wiggins, Draymond Green, Kelly Oubre, Jordan Poole
Memphis Grizzlies
There isn’t a whole lot to see here. I like to joke about the Grizzlies’ rotation and say they run their minutes like this is a youth recreation team. Memphis acts like every player on the roster must play which leads to a deep rotation and thinly spread minutes. The only guys we can count on for even close to 30 minutes are Ja Morant and Jonas Valanciunas. Beyond them, we typically see a handful of players get 18-25 minutes which limits the ceiling of most Grizzlies’ players. Even on a small four-game slate, I don’t view anybody beyond Valanciunas and Morant as a viable options.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Ja Morant, Jonas Valanciunas
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Ja Morant, Jonas Valanciunas
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Sacramento Kings at Philadelphia 76ers (-6.5): 230.5
Sacramento Kings
Even on a small slate, nothing looks too appealing from the Kings. De’Aaron Fox is great but he’s too expensive for me in a tough matchup against the 76ers. He’s likely to draw a lot of defense from Ben Simmons, which is a problem. I am getting to some Harrison Barnes exposure although this is only on FanDuel due to positional scarcity. Barnes isn’t a consideration for me on DraftKings and I don’t think I would get to him at all on FanDuel if he played any other position.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: None
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Harrison Barnes
Philadelphia 76ers
Since Joel Embiid remains out, Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris remain in line for extra production. The only issue is that both of them are priced way up on DraftKings. They are at price points that I am not willing to pay. This is a different story on FanDuel where both of them still come at a slight price discount compared to their fair prices. Simmons is a bit more of a priority than Harris although both will wind up in about a quarter or so of my FanDuel lineups.
On both sites, Dwight Howard is one of the stronger center options. Even though he isn’t starting, Dwight is still soaking up the majority of the center minutes for Philly over the last couple of games. In matchups against the Bucks and the Knicks, he averaged 28 minutes per game. Even if those minutes come down a bit, Howard makes for a strong value. He scores 1.17 DraftKings points per minute for the season so he looks like a good option as long as we get at least 24 minutes out of him.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Dwight Howard
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Dwight Howard, Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris
San Antonio Spurs at Milwaukee Bucks (-9): 231
San Antonio Spurs
Lonnie Walker was held out of last night’s game without an injury designation. The team decided he was too worn down to play and left him on the bench. This makes his status unclear for tonight’s game against the Bucks. Without him, we saw Derrick White and Keldon Johnson get more run with Johnson breaking the slate at low ownership. It might seem like chasing points but I am willing to go back to Johnson, especially if Walker can’t play. Particularly on FanDuel, the small forward player pool is weak.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Keldon Johnson
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Keldon Johnson, Derrick White, Jakob Poeltl
Miwuakee Bucks
The bi question here is how many minutes will the Bucks starters have to play? I generally don’t consider blowout risk much unless games start to get into spreads in the double-figures, so I am not knocking the playing time for any of the Bucks since this is currently just a nine-point spread. With that in mind, Giannis Antetokounmpo is pretty clearly the top pay up option for me on this slate. Due to the injury situation with the Warriors, this slate has plenty of value, making it simple to fit Giannis into lineups. I have him projected to score more fantasy points than any other player on the slate by more than 10 fantasy points. Jrue Holiday‘s price is starting to climb on FanDuel while it remains at $6,500 on DraftKings.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton
Charlotte Hornets at Los Angeles Clippers (-9.5): 232
Charlotte Hornets
This is a tough matchup for the Hornets, who are the biggest underdogs of the night. Due to the difficulty of the matchup and his price, I am leaving LeMelo Ball out of my player pool. He is having a great rookie season and is one of the most fun players to watch in the league but his salary is getting out of hand for DFS. We also have to consider that Devonte’ Graham is back and is starting to play more minutes. This takes away from Ball and Terry Rozier.
The player I am getting to the most from Charlotte is Miles Bridges. His minutes are trending up in the second half of the season and now Cody Zeller is out. Missing Zeller is likely to mean more small ball lineups for Charlotte. This benefits Bridges the most and he might even push for 30 minutes if the Hornets are down big and need to get shooters on the court.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Miles Bridges
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Miles Bridges
Los Angeles Clippers
We need an injury update here since Serge Ibaka is listed as questionable again. He missed the last couple games while listed as questionable and is constantly getting ruled out after lock. If he doesn’t play, Marcus Morris and Ivica Zubac both become strong plays. I am listing them in my player pool for now since I consider Ibaka a bit more likely to sit out of tonight’s game than play. The Clippers are sizable favorites to the point that I don’t think they have to push their starting center to get a win tonight.
I have Kawhi Leonard and Paul George in my player pool but my preference is to pay up for Giannis. So I will have exposure to both of these guys at around 20% but that’s across 150 lineups. If you only play 1-3 lineups or so then I don’t think the Clippers stars are strong considerations. They are MME plays so that I am not totally committed to Giannis in every lineup.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Marcus Morris, Ivica Zubac, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Marcus Morris, Ivica Zubac, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard
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