Monday’s NBA slate had trouble written all over it in a matter of minutes after lock, with several key names. Today we’ll look to redeem any losses (and then some) from the tumultuous start of the week. We will jump into the NBA player props featured on OddsShopper and cross-reference relevant player stats, rotations and team trends to aid in identifying the best values among NBA odds to solidify our betting picks for Tuesday. Tonight we’ll be focused on Julius Randle and Jamal Murray.
NBA Betting Picks & Player Prop Bets | March 23
Julius Randle OVER 11.5 Rebounds (-105, PointsBet)
The Knicks get a friendly Tuesday draw, hosting the Wizards with an opportunity at reaching a .500 record and sole possession of seventh place in the Eastern Conference. Julius Randle should be eager to dominate against one of the league’s worst defensive units. Randle has a prop of 11.5 rebounds with -105 odds on the over at PointsBet. Needing 12 rebounds at nearly even-money odds is a solid value given Randle’s production this year.
Randle is having himself a career season across a number of stat categories, as he has a 27.9% usage rate and 37.0 minutes per game. He also is averaging career highs with 11.0 rebounds per game and a 14.3% rebound rate this season. As the Knicks’ leading rebounder by a significant margin, Randle has helped the Knicks crest into the top eight teams in the league in rebounding at a 51.5% rate as a unit. He has a season high of 18 rebounds, so the sky is the limit provided a soft opponent on the boards.
The Wizards have a handful of surprise wins under their belt coming against quality opponents this season, yet the dysfunction has far outweighed the successes. And their rebounding prowess would be among those notable shortcomings, as they are 26th in the NBA in rebounds allowed. They also surrender a whopping 10.4 rebounds specifically to power forwards. Randle going over 12 rebounds against one of the league’s worst in rebounding seems likely, so this makes for considerable value on Tuesday.
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Jamal Murray OVER 5.5 Assists (+122, SugarHouse & DraftKings Sportsbook)
The duel down in the post between Nikola Vucevic and Nikola Jokic should steal the spotlight at Amway Center on Tuesday, but that’s not to say Jamal Murray can’t have his share as well. Murray has been having the best year of his career, averaging 21.1 points, 4.8 assists and 1.3 steals in 35.4 minutes per game. Tonight he has a 5.5 assists at +122 odds at SugarHouse and DraftKings Sportsbook. Considering the Magic’s weakness at defending point guards, the plus-money odds here present more than a fair bargain.
Although he is having a career season, Murray’s 2021 track record isn’t without it’s blemishes. He is matching his last year’s assist average of 4.8 per game, but his assist rate is down to 19.6% from 22.8% last season. Murray also sees his assist average take a slight ding with Paul Millsap back in the lineup, down from 6.0 to 5.77 assists per 36 minutes. Yet I keep the faith, as Murray has seen his assist rate climb over the past 12 games to 21.3% (and much of that has been since Millsap’s return). Murray’s recent assist totals are 8, 6, 5, 3, 6, 4, 5, 5, 8, 5, 5 and 7. Much like the Pelicans — whom he most recently put 7 assists on — the Magic have a glaring weakness against point guards.
Orlando is without key starting point guards, and has been much of the season, with Markelle Fultz and Cole Anthony each sidelined. They are surrendering 25.7 assists per game (23rd), and 8.7 of those come from point guards (also 23rd). Despite 6 assists looming just above his recent average, getting 22% on your investment on an achievable total is an outstanding value bet on Tuesday’s six-gamer.
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